高盛上调印度国内生产总值疫苗进展预测,预计21财年萎缩10.8%

2020-11-19 18:05

Goldman Sachs Upgrades India's GDP Forecast on Vaccine Progress, Expects 10.8% Contraction in FY21 QQo世界播

高盛上调印度国内生产总值疫苗进展预测,预计21财年萎缩10.8%QQo世界播


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Foreign brokerage Goldman Sachs on Tuesday upgraded its India GDP forecast to a contraction of 10.3 per cent in FY21, as against its earlier estimate of a negative growth of 14.8 per cent. QQo世界播

外国券商高盛(Goldman Sachs)周二将印度21财年GDP预测上调至收缩10.3%,而此前的预测为负增长14.8%。QQo世界播


The US-based firm said developments on the vaccine front — where two candidates have posted satisfactory progress — will be very helpful in the recovery. The Reserve Bank expects India's GDP to contract by 9.5 per cent on real basis in the ongoing fiscal because of the impact suffered by the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. QQo世界播

这家总部位于美国的公司表示,疫苗方面的发展-两名候选疫苗已经取得了令人满意的进展-将对复苏非常有帮助。印度储备银行(Reserve Bank)预计,由于新冠肺炎疫情对印度经济的影响,本财年印度实际国内生产总值(GDP)将收缩9.5%。QQo世界播


The GDP will stage an impressive recovery in FY22, with a growth of 13 per cent on the low base and benefits of the vaccine, Goldman Sachs said in a report. "There is still a high degree of uncertainty around the outlook – and growth could significantly overshoot or undershoot these forecasts – depending on the course taken by the virus and vaccine-related developments in the coming year," it said. QQo世界播

高盛(Goldman Sachs)在一份报告中表示,在低基数和疫苗带来的好处的基础上,22财年国内生产总值(GDP)将出现令人印象深刻的复苏,增长率为13%。该机构表示:“前景仍存在高度不确定性--增长可能会大大超过或低于这些预测--这取决于病毒和疫苗相关发展在未来一年所走的路线。”QQo世界播


It expects a normalisation in the containment policies and mobility restrictions only in mid-2022, once a vaccine is deployed. A meaningful rebound in economic activity will happen from 2021 itself, it said, adding that consumer-facing services sectors will stage a faster recovery. However, the pace of the rebound will be restrained by some "economic scarring", and a number of factors like a weak labour market, the hit to private sector incomes and balance sheets, tighter credit supply conditions and a limited impetus from fiscal policy, it said. QQo世界播

该组织预计,一旦部署疫苗,遏制政策和流动限制要到2022年年中才能正常化。报告称,经济活动将从2021年开始出现有意义的反弹,并补充说,面向消费者的服务行业将上演更快的复苏。然而,报告称,反弹的步伐将受到一些“经济创伤”以及一系列因素的制约,比如劳动力市场疲软、私营部门收入和资产负债表受到打击、信贷供应状况收紧以及财政政策的推动有限。QQo世界播


Headline inflation is likely to decline towards the mid-point of the RBI's target band of 2-6 per cent by mid-2021 as food prices fall on easing supply restrictions, a benign monsoon and favourable base effects, it said. Core inflation could also moderate given low manufacturing capacity utilisation and appreciation in the rupee. QQo世界播

报告称,由于放松供应限制、有利的季风和有利的基数效应,食品价格下跌,到2021年年中,整体通胀率可能会降至印度央行2%至6%目标区间的中点。鉴于制造业产能利用率较低和卢比升值,核心通胀也可能放缓。QQo世界播


This will result in the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cutting rates by 0.35 per cent next year, it said, adding that the panel with three new members has a dovish tilt. The brokerage firm further said it will be overweight on Indian equities on the macro recovery and relatively higher sensitivity of Indian stocks to positive vaccine outcomes and added that appreciation pressures on the rupee will persist. QQo世界播

该行表示,这将导致印度央行货币政策委员会(MPC)明年降息0.35%,并补充称,该委员会有3名新成员,倾向鸽派。这家经纪公司进一步表示,由于宏观复苏以及印度股市对积极疫苗结果的相对较高敏感性,它将增持印度股市,并补充称,卢比的升值压力将持续存在。QQo世界播

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