融资市场的传统圣诞噩梦结束了吗?

2020-11-19 20:06

Is the Traditional Christmas Nightmare for Funding Markets Over? ayM世界播

融资市场的传统圣诞噩梦结束了吗?ayM世界播


暂无ayM世界播

Some parts of the dollar-funding apparatus would look weaker this year than last without the Fed’s support. ayM世界播

如果没有美联储的支持,今年美元融资机制的某些部分看起来会比去年更弱ayM世界播


With the end of 2020 mercifully coming into view, there’s one holiday tradition that investors seem markedly less worried about this year—a sudden dollar-funding squeeze in December. ayM世界播

随着2020年底的到来,今年有一个节日传统似乎明显不那么令投资者担忧--12月突然出现的美元融资紧缩。ayM世界播


In recent years, short-term borrowing costs in U.S. dollars, particularly for investors overseas, have often surged in December as major banks rein in activity to prevent regulatory charges. ayM世界播

近年来,随着各大银行为防止监管收费而控制活动,以美元计价的短期借款成本,尤其是海外投资者的短期借款成本,往往在12月飙升。ayM世界播


This year, the Federal Reserve has done a lot of the heavy lifting to prevent a repeat. As recently as June, foreign central banks had around $450 billion in cross-currency swaps outstanding, offering dollar-hungry foreign banks access to greenbacks when private lenders were balking at offering them. ayM世界播

今年,美联储(Federal Reserve)做了很多重担,以防止重蹈覆辙。就在6月份,外国央行还有约4500亿美元的交叉货币掉期未平仓,在私人贷款机构不愿提供美元的情况下,这为渴求美元的外国银行提供了获得美元的渠道。ayM世界播


That figure has now declined to just below $8 billion. And despite the low current takeup, merely knowing the facility exists until at least March is a balm to borrowers. ayM世界播

这一数字现在已降至略低于80亿美元。尽管目前认购率较低,但仅仅知道这一安排至少要到3月份才能存在,对借款人来说是一种安慰。ayM世界播


But even with the program in place, analysts who pay close attention to market plumbing are divided over how much risk there is of December stress this year. ayM世界播

但是,即使该计划已经到位,密切关注市场管道的分析师对今年12月压力的风险有多大仍存在分歧。ayM世界播


暂无ayM世界播

Some parts of the dollar-funding apparatus would look weaker this year than last without the Fed’s support. ayM世界播

如果没有美联储的支持,今年美元融资机制的某些部分看起来会比去年更弱ayM世界播


Zoltan Pozsar, the repo and money-market guru at Credit Suisse, suggests the risk is low. Not only is the Fed supportive, but few major U.S. banks seem at risk of higher surcharges due to the global systemically important banks scores given to them by the Fed, based on their second-quarter scores. ayM世界播

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)回购和货币市场专家佐尔坦·波兹萨尔(Zoltan Pozsar)表示,风险很低。不仅美联储表示支持,而且几乎没有几家美国大银行似乎面临更高附加费的风险,因为美联储根据第二季度的得分对全球具有系统重要性的银行进行了评分。ayM世界播


Interest-rate strategists at J.P. Morgan don’t quite agree, suggesting that since practically no funding squeeze whatsoever has been priced in over the turn—the end of the calendar year—the main risk is being too sanguine. They note banks’ equity prices are a key influencer of their GSIB scores, and that the Fed’s decision to bar large banks from buybacks prevents them from trying to reduce that element of the score. ayM世界播

摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的利率策略师并不完全同意这一观点,他们认为,由于在今年年底这段时间里,几乎没有任何资金紧张的因素被计入价格,因此主要风险在于过于乐观。他们指出,银行的股价是其GSIB得分的关键影响因素,美联储禁止大型银行回购股票的决定,阻止了它们试图降低这一得分。ayM世界播


The early signs of high efficacy in vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer has sparked equity-market rallies that disproportionately benefited beaten-down value stocks like banks. The S&P 500 financials index is now down by only around 10% for the year to date, from a trough of more than minus 40% in March. ayM世界播

现代和辉瑞(Pfizer)在疫苗方面表现出高效的早期迹象,引发了股市反弹,银行等遭受重创的价值型股票获得了不成比例的好处。今年到目前为止,标准普尔500金融指数仅下跌了10%左右,而3月份的低谷为负40%以上。ayM世界播


Some parts of the dollar-funding apparatus would look weaker this year than last without the Fed’s support. Assets held by prime money-market funds, a dollar-funding source for overseas banks, have continued to decline. Two decisions to close some of the world’s largest prime funds have reduced the total to around $577 billion, now well below the March nadir, and the figure still seems to be falling. ayM世界播

如果没有美联储的支持,今年美元融资机制的某些部分看起来会比去年更弱。优质货币市场基金是海外银行的美元融资来源,其持有的资产持续减少。关闭一些世界上最大的优质基金的两项决定使总规模降至5770亿美元左右,目前远低于3月份的最低点,而且这一数字似乎仍在下降。ayM世界播


This year, the chance of a sudden blowup looks low. But with so much riding on a combination of central bank support and regulatory happenstance, the conditions that made it so could be fleeting. Christmas panic in dollar funding is likely to be canceled this year, but the tradition can’t be consigned to history yet. ayM世界播

今年,突然爆发的可能性看起来很低。但由于央行的支持和监管的偶然性在很大程度上依赖于此,导致这一局面的条件可能是转瞬即逝的。今年圣诞节美元融资恐慌可能会被取消,但这一传统还不能成为历史。ayM世界播

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