2020-11-19 15:22

Bitcoin stakes claim as pandemic refuge for the brave qHt世界播



Bitcoin's investor base is also widening as more institutions make the jump into the asset class. qHt世界播


NEW YORK (BLOOMBERG) - Bitcoin is seizing the spotlight from gold as a hedge against risks such as further dollar weakness or a pick-up in inflation, after widening its performance lead over the yellow metal. qHt世界播


The cryptocurrency's approximately 150 per cent jump in 2020 puts the digital coin's price relative to gold at the highest in almost three years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The climb comes as investors search for portfolio buffers amid predictions the dollar could drop as much as 20 per cent next year in the economic recovery from the pandemic. qHt世界播


"Bitcoin seems to be the hedge of choice against the US dollar debasement that is looming, either through more Federal Reserve quantitative easing, higher government debt or a steepening yield curve - or all three," Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst with Oanda Asia Pacific, wrote in an email. qHt世界播

Oanda Asia Pacific高级市场分析师杰弗里·哈雷(Jeffrey Hley)在一封电子邮件中写道:“比特币似乎是对冲迫在眉睫的美元贬值的首选工具,无论是通过美联储(Fed)推出更多量化宽松政策、提高政府债务,还是通过收益率曲线趋陡--或者三者兼而有之--都是如此。”qHt世界播

Bitcoin's investor base is also widening as more institutions make the jump into the asset class. Purchases or endorsements from the likes of Square Inc., Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller add to the mix. But its volatility - including a furious run toward US$20,000 (S$26,870) in December 2017 followed by a bust - make arguments for the cryptocurrency as a store of value contentious. qHt世界播

随着越来越多的机构进军比特币这一资产类别,比特币的投资者基础也在不断扩大。Square Inc.、保罗·图多尔·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)和斯坦·德鲁肯米勒(Stan Druckenmiler)等公司的购买或代言更是雪上加霜。但其波动性-包括2017年12月飙升至2万美元(合26870新元),随后出现崩盘-使得这种加密货币作为一种保值手段的论点存在争议。qHt世界播

Fear of missing out "is well and truly in play here, and the fact that so many big hitters are publicly declaring their positions is clearly helping," Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Financial, wrote in a Nov 18 note. "I don't see this move as a mania or grossly over-loved just yet." qHt世界播

佩珀斯通金融公司(Pepperstone Financial)研究主管克里斯·韦斯顿(Chris Weston)在11月18日的一份报告中写道,对错失机会的恐惧在这里发挥了很好的作用,而如此多的重量级人物公开宣布自己的立场显然是有帮助的。“我还不认为这是一种狂热,也不是非常受人喜爱。”qHt世界播

Gold has dropped about 10 per cent since its record in August, paring an advance this year to around 23 per cent. Some strategists are turning bearish. Morgan Stanley, for instance, cut its forecast for the precious metal to US$1,825 an ounce on average for 2021 from a previous US$1,950, arguing that the global economic recovery is undercutting the case for further gains. qHt世界播

自8月创纪录以来,金价已下跌约10%,今年涨幅收窄至23%左右。一些策略师正变得悲观起来。例如,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)将其对2021年黄金平均价格的预测从之前的每盎司1950美元下调至每盎司1825美元,理由是全球经济复苏正在削弱进一步上涨的理由。qHt世界播

A rise in 10-year US Treasury yields above 1 per cent in coming months may cap gains in the metal, but it will remain attractive as a haven next year, Mr Halley said. qHt世界播


As Bitcoin more than doubled this year, so has the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, tracking Bitcoin and the biggest rival coins. Coinciding with these rallies are growing investments by non-crypto firms in infrastructure and services, such as PayPal's decision to allow its customers to spend crypto in its network of 26 million merchants. qHt世界播

随着比特币今年翻了一番多,追踪比特币和最大竞争对手的彭博银河加密指数(Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index)也翻了一番。在这些反弹的同时,非加密公司在基础设施和服务方面的投资也在不断增加,例如贝宝(PayPal)决定允许其客户在其拥有2600万商家的网络中消费加密。qHt世界播

"Gold still has a stronger track record and has proven itself over decades as a safe-haven asset during downward trending markets," Shaun Djie, chief operating officer of Digix, wrote in an email. Bitcoin hoarding by some investors helps to explain its recent outperformance and poses a risk if these "whales" start to sell, he said. qHt世界播

Digix首席运营官肖恩·德杰(Shaun Djie)在一封电子邮件中写道:“黄金仍有更好的记录,几十年来证明了自己在下行趋势市场中是一种避险资产。”他说,一些投资者囤积比特币有助于解释其近期的优异表现,如果这些“鲸鱼”开始抛售,也会带来风险。qHt世界播

Bitcoin traded at about US$18,000 on Thursday, after reaching that level a day earlier for the first time since 2017. Gold was steady at US$1,867 an ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held near its lowest since April 2018. qHt世界播


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