2030年的汽油和柴油禁令对今天的买家意味着什么

2020-11-19 14:01

What the ban on petrol and diesel in 2030 means for buyers today 0hq世界播

2030年的汽油和柴油禁令对今天的买家意味着什么0hq世界播


The ban on the sale of new petrol and electric models from 2030 has been called “a seismic step” for car buyers. So far in 2020, only 9 per cent of the new cars bought in the UK have been electric (EV) or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs); that gives the Government nine years to change the purchasing habits of 90 per cent of the new-car buying population. 0hq世界播

对购车者来说,从2030年起禁止销售新的汽油和电动车型被称为“震撼性的一步”。2020年到目前为止,在英国购买的新车中只有9%是电动汽车(EV)或插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV);这给了政府九年时间来改变90%新车购买人口的购买习惯。0hq世界播


But what does it mean today? Should anyone buying a new car only consider electric? And what will happen to values of petrol and diesel models? We answer the important questions. 0hq世界播

但这在今天意味着什么呢?买新车的人应该只考虑电动汽车吗?汽油和柴油车型的价格将会发生什么变化?我们回答重要的问题。0hq世界播


If you buy a new car now, should it be electric? 0hq世界播

如果你现在买一辆新车,它应该是电动的吗?0hq世界播


Not necessarily. If petrol (or diesel) suits your lifestyle, mileage and budget, buy that. At midnight on 31 December 2029, service stations won’t just put up the closed sign and begin ripping out all their pumps to replace them with electric vehicle (EV) charging points. Neither will garages stop servicing internal combustion-engined cars. 0hq世界播

不一定。如果汽油(或柴油)适合你的生活方式、里程数和预算,那就买吧。2029年12月31日午夜,加油站不会仅仅竖起关门的牌子,开始拆除所有的水泵,以电动汽车(EV)充电站取而代之。汽车修理厂也不会停止对内燃机汽车的维修。0hq世界播


Will my petrol or diesel car be worthless? 0hq世界播

我的汽油车或柴油车会一文不值吗?0hq世界播


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Hand Holding a Petrol Pump Nozzle Against a White Background - Simon Belcher/Alamy 0hq世界播

手持加油泵喷嘴,背景为白色--Simon Belcher/Alamy0hq世界播


No. The ban is on sales of new petrol and diesel models from 2030. The legislation doesn’t apply to the sale of used cars. But what happens to the used value of petrol and diesel models depends on how the intervening nine years pan out. There are two broad scenarios: the transition to EVs goes smoothly. Or it doesn’t. 0hq世界播

不是的。这项禁令是从2030年起禁止销售新的汽油和柴油车型。这项立法不适用于二手车的销售。但汽油和柴油车型的使用价值会发生什么,取决于其间9年的结果。大致有两种情况:向电动汽车的过渡进展顺利。或者它不会。0hq世界播


Petrol or diesel cars could plummet in value if… 0hq世界播

如果…,汽油或柴油车的价值可能会暴跌。0hq世界播


The government offers increased grants or tax breaks to EV buyers. The number of new charging points might also have accelerated significantly. To help pay for this, the treasury could hike duty on petrol and diesel fuel or bump up car tax (or its successor) for combustion engine drivers. 0hq世界播

政府向电动汽车购买者提供更多的补贴或税收减免。新充电站的数量也可能大幅增加。为了帮助支付这笔费用,财政部可以提高汽油和柴油的关税,或者提高内燃机司机的汽车税(或其继任者)。0hq世界播


In this case, drivers will convert quickly to electric cars and there will be increasing numbers of electric cars on the used market. Demand for supposed smelly, expensive and inconvenient petrol and diesel models will decline, people will happily switch to used EVs and values of second-hand petrol/diesel models will fall. 0hq世界播

在这种情况下,驾车者将迅速改用电动汽车,二手市场上的电动汽车数量将会越来越多。对臭气熏天、昂贵又不方便的汽油和柴油车型的需求将会下降,人们将乐于转而使用二手电动汽车,二手汽油/柴油车型的价值将会下降。0hq世界播


Petrol or diesel car values could rocket if… 0hq世界播

如果…,汽油或柴油车的价值可能会飙升。0hq世界播


The Government’s ramping up of electric car charging points doesn’t happen as quickly or extensively as it needs to. Some public EV charging points currently cost up to nine times more to use than home chargers. If that continues, using EVs may be viewed as unreliable and expensive. That might be emphasised if grants incentivising drivers to switch to electric cars aren’t sufficient. 0hq世界播

政府增加电动汽车充电站的速度和范围并不像它需要的那样快或广泛。目前,一些公共电动汽车充电站的使用成本高达家用充电器的9倍。如果这种情况持续下去,使用电动汽车可能会被视为不可靠和昂贵。如果鼓励司机改用电动汽车的补贴还不够,这一点可能会得到强调。0hq世界播


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An electric car charges on a street recharging port in London, Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020 - Kirsty Wigglesworth/AP 0hq世界播

一辆电动汽车在伦敦街头充电站充电,2020年11月18日星期三--基尔斯蒂·威格尔斯沃思/美联社0hq世界播


If this is the EV ownership reality, petrol and diesel models will remain popular with buyers and the take-up of electric cars slow. Demand for used combustion engine models will remain high but supply will nonetheless decline as manufacturers switch to selling only EVs. The result will see the price of used models rising. 0hq世界播

如果这是电动汽车所有权的现实,汽油和柴油车型仍将受到买家的欢迎,电动汽车的普及速度将放缓。二手内燃机车型的需求仍将居高不下,但随着制造商转向只销售电动汽车,供应仍将下降。这一结果将导致二手车型的价格上涨。0hq世界播


Is it foolish or morally wrong to buy petrol/diesel over the next 10 years? 0hq世界播

在未来10年购买汽油/柴油是愚蠢的还是道德上的错误?0hq世界播


Neither. There is nothing more immoral about buying petrol or diesel than buying electric. An EV may have no tailpipe exhaust emissions but it’s still built in factories using, in most cases, the same energy and resources as internal combustion cars. It still has to be transported across the world using a (probably diesel-powered) ship and/or car transporter. And at the end of its life, it still has to be broken down and where possible recycled. 0hq世界播

两样都没有。购买汽油或柴油没有比购买电动汽车更不道德的了。电动汽车可能没有尾气排放,但在大多数情况下,它仍然是在工厂生产的,使用的能源和资源与内燃车相同。它仍然必须使用(很可能是柴油动力的)轮船和/或汽车运输机在世界各地运输。而在它的寿命结束时,它仍然需要被分解,并在可能的情况下进行回收利用。0hq世界播


During its lifetime, the EV will need to be charged and it’s worth remembering that around two thirds (64.2 per cent) of the UK’s power still isn’t from renewable sources. All cars wear out our roads. And EVs are responsible for just as many emissions in the form of particles from brake dust and tyres. 0hq世界播

电动汽车在其生命周期内需要充电,值得记住的是,英国约三分之二(64.2%)的电力仍然不是来自可再生能源。所有的汽车都磨损了我们的道路。电动汽车以刹车灰尘和轮胎颗粒的形式排放了同样多的废气。0hq世界播


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overhead power cables - UK - Gareth Fuller/PA 0hq世界播

架空电力电缆-英国-Gareth Fuller/PA0hq世界播


None of that is denying the undeniable: petrol and diesel cars do produce harmful exhaust emissions. But the modern combustion engine is a marvel of efficiency. And while some might vilify diesel drivers as child killers, the latest Euro 6 diesel engines produce only minuscule amounts of harmful nitrogen oxides. 0hq世界播

所有这些都不能否认:汽油和柴油汽车确实会产生有害的尾气排放。但现代内燃机是效率的奇迹。虽然有些人可能会诋毁柴油司机是儿童杀手,但最新的欧6柴油发动机只产生极少量的有害氮氧化物。0hq世界播


Why are hybrids suddenly reprieved? 0hq世界播

为什么混合动力车突然被缓刑了?0hq世界播


Originally, any car using a combustion engine was to be banned, including hybrids. Now the government says new hybrids that can “drive a significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe” will be allowed on sale until 2035. 0hq世界播

最初,任何使用内燃机的汽车都将被禁止,包括混合动力车。现在,政府表示,在2035年之前,可以“开很长一段路而不会有碳排放”的新型混合动力车将被允许销售到2035年。0hq世界播


What quantifies as “a significant distance” is anybody’s guess. Presumably it doesn’t mean self-charging hybrids that can only travel a mile or two on battery power alone. 0hq世界播

量化为“显著距离”的是什么,每个人都在猜测。想必,这并不意味着仅靠电池动力只能行驶一两英里的自动充电混合动力车。0hq世界播


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Toyota Prius cutaway, showing internal combustion engine at front and drive battery at rear 0hq世界播

丰田普锐斯剖面图,前面显示内燃机,后面显示驱动电池0hq世界播


The move was taken because plug-in hybrids which can usually cover around 20 electric-only miles per charge are viewed as a glide path: an easy transition to electric motoring while some of the charging challenges are resolved. 0hq世界播

之所以采取这一举措,是因为插电式混合动力车(一次充电通常可以行驶约20英里)被视为一条滑行路径:在解决一些充电挑战的同时,很容易过渡到电动汽车。0hq世界播


The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) chief executive Mike Hawes welcomed the move: “We are pleased to see the government accept the importance of hybrid transition technologies - which drivers are already embracing, as they deliver carbon savings now.” 0hq世界播

汽车制造商和贸易商协会(SMMT)首席执行官迈克·霍斯(Mike Hawes)对这一举措表示欢迎:“我们很高兴看到政府接受混合动力转换技术的重要性--司机们已经开始接受这种技术,因为它们现在可以节省碳排放。”0hq世界播


Is there such a thing as a cheap electric car? 0hq世界播

有没有便宜的电动车?0hq世界播


New electric cars have hefty sticker prices: the cheapest Vauxhall Corsa-e is 26,640. Buy that on Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) finance and it’ll cost a more palatable 325 a month, with a 2,600 deposit. However, that same deposit and monthly payment will buy a petrol version of the larger, comfier Astra… 0hq世界播

新款电动汽车的标价很高:沃克斯豪尔Corsa-e最便宜的是GB 26640。以个人合同购买(PCP)的方式购买它,每月要花325 GB,外加2600 GB的押金。然而,同样的定金和月付可以买到更大、更舒适的阿斯特拉…的汽油版。0hq世界播


Cheaper still is the new MG5 EV which, after the Government’s 3,000 plug-in car grant (PiCG), costs 24,495. 0hq世界播

更便宜的是新的MG5电动汽车,在政府的3000 GB插电式汽车补贴(PICG)之后,售价为24495 GB。0hq世界播


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MG5 EV - Jeff Gilbert 0hq世界播

MG5电动汽车-杰夫·吉尔伯特0hq世界播


It’s hardly surprising that SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: “Success will depend on reassuring consumers that they can afford these new technologies.” Some car makers currently complain that they lose money on electric models so don’t expect prices of new models to fall overnight without Government incentives. 0hq世界播

SMMT首席执行官迈克·霍斯(Mike Hawes)表示:“成功将取决于让消费者放心,他们能够负担得起这些新技术,这一点也就不足为奇了。”一些汽车制造商目前抱怨说,他们在电动车型上亏损,所以在没有政府激励的情况下,不要指望新车型的价格会在一夜之间下跌。0hq世界播


Buy used and you can pick up a battery-powered 2013 Nissan Leaf for slightly less than 8,000. The same money will buy a similar age VW Golf GT or GTI depending on mileage. Sadly for buyers, electric vehicles are no longer the massive depreciators they once were. Values now hold up as well, if not better than, combustion-engined equivalents. 0hq世界播

买一辆二手车,你就可以买到一辆电池供电的2013款日产Leaf,价格略低于8000 GB。根据行驶里程的不同,同样的钱也可以买到类似年龄段的大众高尔夫GT或GTI。对购车者来说,可悲的是,电动汽车不再是曾经的巨大折旧器。现在,燃气机的价值即使不比内燃机的同类产品更好,也能保持同样的水平。0hq世界播


Depending on how the next nine years goes, that could increase the lifespan of petrol or diesel models for longer than the government intends. 0hq世界播

根据未来九年的情况,这可能会延长汽油或柴油车型的使用寿命,超过政府的预期。0hq世界播

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