摩根大通提出了噩梦般的选举情景,这可能会让市场陷入混乱

2020-11-19 07:35

JPMorgan lays out the nightmare election scenario that could send markets into a tailspin 8bL世界播

摩根大通提出了噩梦般的选举情景,这可能会让市场陷入混乱8bL世界播


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FULL SHOW 11/18/2020: Stocks rise on vaccine optimism 8bL世界播

2020年11月18日全集:疫苗乐观情绪推动股市上涨8bL世界播


New York (CNN Business)Much of Wall Street views the Trump campaign's efforts to overturn the election results as a desperate sideshow destined to fail. But JPMorgan is telling clients there's still a chance that this process descends into chaos. It is 2020, after all. 8bL世界播

纽约(CNN Business)华尔街大部分人认为特朗普竞选团队推翻选举结果的努力是注定要失败的绝望的杂耍。但摩根大通告诉客户,这一过程仍有可能陷入混乱。毕竟,现在是2020年。8bL世界播


Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned in a report Wednesday of the "remote risk of an American horror story" and "constitutional mayhem." 8bL世界播

摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)市场和投资策略主席迈克尔·森巴莱斯特(Michael Cembalest)周三在一份报告中警告称,“美国恐怖故事的风险微乎其微”,以及“宪法混乱”。8bL世界播


Cembalest, who helps oversee $2.2 trillion in assets, pointed to President Donald Trump's Tuesday night firing of the top US election security official, Attorney General William Barr's decision to authorize prosecutors to probe alleged voter fraud and the fleeting drama over certifying election results in Michigan's largest county. 8bL世界播

帮助监管2.2万亿美元资产的Cembalest指出,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)周二晚间解雇了美国最高选举安全官员,司法部长威廉·巴尔(William Barr)决定授权检察官调查涉嫌选民欺诈,以及密歇根州最大县的选举结果认证事件。8bL世界播


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"Bottom line: a LOT of very unorthodox things have to happen for Trump to be reelected," the JPMorgan strategist wrote. "Even so, I'm not ruling anything out." 8bL世界播

这位摩根大通策略师写道:“一句话:要想让特朗普连任,必须发生很多非常非正统的事情。”“即便如此,我也不排除任何可能性。”8bL世界播


Post-election chaos would of course rattle markets, which famously hate uncertainty. The smoother-than-feared election set off a celebration on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 notching its biggest post-election rally since 1932. 8bL世界播

选举后的混乱当然会扰乱市场,而市场对不确定性的厌恶是出了名的。这场比人们担心的顺利的选举在华尔街掀起了一场庆祝活动,标准普尔500指数(S&P500)创下1932年以来最大的选举后反弹。8bL世界播


But if investors don't know who's going to be in charge of the world's largest economy, they could easily sell first and ask questions later. 8bL世界播

但如果投资者不知道谁将掌管全球最大的经济体,他们可以很容易地先卖出,然后再提出问题。8bL世界播


"Markets might react negatively if the US as the world's reserve currency nation is seen as sliding down a path toward electoral illegitimacy due to post-election maneuvers by political parties," Cembalest wrote. 8bL世界播

Cembalest写道:“如果作为世界储备货币国家的美国被视为由于政党在选举后的策略而滑向选举非法性的道路上,市场可能会做出负面反应。”8bL世界播


'Dueling inaugurations' 8bL世界播

“决斗就职典礼”8bL世界播


To be sure, legal experts say Trump's long-shot bid at overturning the election is just that, a long-shot. Put simply, Trump is losing by too many votes in too many states. 8bL世界播

可以肯定的是,法律专家表示,特朗普推翻选举的希望渺茫,希望渺茫。简而言之,特朗普在太多的州以太多的选票落败。8bL世界播


As Cembalest notes, Trump would need to "reverse or impede results in three states" to prevent Joe Biden from reaching the 270 electoral votes required by the Constitution. And as CNN has reported, despite Trump's baseless claims (which Twitter has repeatedly flagged), there is no evidence of the widespread fraud required to overturn those results. 8bL世界播

正如Cembalest指出的那样,特朗普需要“逆转或阻碍三个州的选举结果”,以阻止乔·拜登获得宪法规定的270张选举人票。正如美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道的那样,尽管特朗普的说法毫无根据(推特曾多次指出),但没有证据表明推翻这些结果所需的广泛欺诈行为。8bL世界播


"Relax. Biden will be sworn in on January 20," Ohio State constitutional election law expert Edward Foley wrote in a Washington Post op-ed last week, which was cited by Cembalest. 8bL世界播

Cembalest援引俄亥俄州宪法选举法专家爱德华·福利(Edward Foley)上周在《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)的一篇专栏文章中写道:“放松点。拜登将于1月20日宣誓就职。”8bL世界播


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Bitcoin rockets past $18,000. The all-time high is in sight 8bL世界播

比特币价格飙升至1.8万美元以上。历史新高在望8bL世界播


Even so, the JPMorgan strategist laid out several developments that could cast doubt on that outcome, including that one or more states submit competing slates of electors. Those competing slates would then be resolved January 6 by the new Congress through rules spelled out in the Electoral Count Act of 1887. 8bL世界播

即便如此,这位摩根大通策略师列出的几个事态发展可能会让人对这一结果产生怀疑,包括一个或多个州提交了相互竞争的选举人名单。这些相互竞争的候选人名单将于1月6日由新一届国会通过1887年选举计票法案中阐明的规则解决。8bL世界播


"The nightmare scenario for markets," according to Cembalest, would be if Senate Republicans declare the ECA unconstitutional, flip three states in Trump's favor to give him the required 270 electoral votes and Democrats refuse to participate. 8bL世界播

根据Cembalest的说法,如果参议院共和党人宣布ECA违宪,让三个州支持特朗普,让他获得所需的270张选举人票,而民主党人拒绝参与,这将是市场的噩梦。8bL世界播


"All of which sets up the prospect of dueling inaugurations," Cembalest wrote, noting that this outcome was only "narrowly averted" in 1876. 8bL世界播

Cembalest写道:“所有这些都为决斗就职典礼奠定了基础。”他指出,这一结果在1876年才“勉强避免”。8bL世界播


Another risk laid out by Cembalest is if Barr directs investigators to "seize or impound election records" to probe for voter fraud, slowing down the process. 8bL世界播

Cembalest提出的另一个风险是,如果巴尔指示调查人员“没收或扣押选举记录”,以调查选民欺诈行为,这将减缓这一进程。8bL世界播


Dimon: 'We have a new president' 8bL世界播

戴蒙:我们有了一位新总统。8bL世界播


For the most part, investors have appeared to ignore Trump's war on the election results. 8bL世界播

在很大程度上,投资者似乎忽视了特朗普对选举结果的战争。8bL世界播


Markets have not flinched in response to headlines about his campaign's many lawsuits. If anything, Wall Street came to terms with the outcome of the election even before CNN and other media outlets projected Biden to be the winner. 8bL世界播

市场并没有对有关他的竞选活动涉及多起诉讼的新闻头条做出回应。如果说有什么不同的话,那就是华尔街甚至在CNN和其他媒体预测拜登将获胜之前就已经接受了选举结果。8bL世界播


Investors have largely focused on other matters, including the makeup of the US Senate, progress in the quest to develop a coronavirus vaccine to fight the worsening pandemic and the prospects for the economic recovery. 8bL世界播

投资者主要关注其他问题,包括美国参议院的组成、开发冠状病毒疫苗以抗击日益恶化的疫情的进展,以及经济复苏的前景。8bL世界播


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A messy Trump-Biden transition will derail desperately needed stimulus 8bL世界播

混乱的特朗普-拜登过渡将破坏亟需的刺激措施8bL世界播


But some are beginning to raise concerns about a transfer of power. 8bL世界播

但一些人开始对权力移交表示担忧。8bL世界播


"I think we're making far too little of this," CNBC anchor Jim Cramer said Wednesday while expressing worries about a peaceful transition to a new administration. 8bL世界播

CNBC主播吉姆·克雷默(Jim Cramer)周三表示:“我认为我们对这件事做得太少了。”他同时表达了对和平过渡到新政府的担忧。8bL世界播


Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said that although her firm's experts don't see much of a risk of "rogue" electors, there "could certainly still be some black swan political event." 8bL世界播

嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席投资策略师利兹·安·桑德斯(Liz Ann Sonders)表示,尽管嘉信理财的专家认为选举人“流氓”的风险不大,但“肯定仍有可能发生一些黑天鹅政治事件”。8bL世界播


Perhaps heeding the warnings of Cembalest, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly urged Americans to respect the outcome of the election. 8bL世界播

摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)可能听从了坎巴莱斯特的警告,一再敦促美国人尊重选举结果。8bL世界播


"We need a peaceful transition. We had an election. We have a new president," Dimon said Wednesday during The New York Time's virtual DealBook conference. "You should support that whether you like it or not, because it's based on a system of faith and trust." 8bL世界播

“我们需要和平过渡。我们进行了选举。我们有了新总统。”戴蒙周三在“纽约时报”(New York Time)的虚拟DealBook会议上说。“不管你喜不喜欢,你都应该支持它,因为它是建立在信仰和信任的基础上的。”8bL世界播

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