2020-11-19 07:35

JPMorgan lays out the nightmare election scenario that could send markets into a tailspin 8bL世界播



FULL SHOW 11/18/2020: Stocks rise on vaccine optimism 8bL世界播


New York (CNN Business)Much of Wall Street views the Trump campaign's efforts to overturn the election results as a desperate sideshow destined to fail. But JPMorgan is telling clients there's still a chance that this process descends into chaos. It is 2020, after all. 8bL世界播

纽约(CNN Business)华尔街大部分人认为特朗普竞选团队推翻选举结果的努力是注定要失败的绝望的杂耍。但摩根大通告诉客户,这一过程仍有可能陷入混乱。毕竟,现在是2020年。8bL世界播

Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned in a report Wednesday of the "remote risk of an American horror story" and "constitutional mayhem." 8bL世界播

摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)市场和投资策略主席迈克尔·森巴莱斯特(Michael Cembalest)周三在一份报告中警告称,“美国恐怖故事的风险微乎其微”,以及“宪法混乱”。8bL世界播

Cembalest, who helps oversee $2.2 trillion in assets, pointed to President Donald Trump's Tuesday night firing of the top US election security official, Attorney General William Barr's decision to authorize prosecutors to probe alleged voter fraud and the fleeting drama over certifying election results in Michigan's largest county. 8bL世界播

帮助监管2.2万亿美元资产的Cembalest指出,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)周二晚间解雇了美国最高选举安全官员,司法部长威廉·巴尔(William Barr)决定授权检察官调查涉嫌选民欺诈,以及密歇根州最大县的选举结果认证事件。8bL世界播




"Bottom line: a LOT of very unorthodox things have to happen for Trump to be reelected," the JPMorgan strategist wrote. "Even so, I'm not ruling anything out." 8bL世界播


Post-election chaos would of course rattle markets, which famously hate uncertainty. The smoother-than-feared election set off a celebration on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 notching its biggest post-election rally since 1932. 8bL世界播


But if investors don't know who's going to be in charge of the world's largest economy, they could easily sell first and ask questions later. 8bL世界播


"Markets might react negatively if the US as the world's reserve currency nation is seen as sliding down a path toward electoral illegitimacy due to post-election maneuvers by political parties," Cembalest wrote. 8bL世界播


'Dueling inaugurations' 8bL世界播


To be sure, legal experts say Trump's long-shot bid at overturning the election is just that, a long-shot. Put simply, Trump is losing by too many votes in too many states. 8bL世界播


As Cembalest notes, Trump would need to "reverse or impede results in three states" to prevent Joe Biden from reaching the 270 electoral votes required by the Constitution. And as CNN has reported, despite Trump's baseless claims (which Twitter has repeatedly flagged), there is no evidence of the widespread fraud required to overturn those results. 8bL世界播


"Relax. Biden will be sworn in on January 20," Ohio State constitutional election law expert Edward Foley wrote in a Washington Post op-ed last week, which was cited by Cembalest. 8bL世界播

Cembalest援引俄亥俄州宪法选举法专家爱德华·福利(Edward Foley)上周在《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)的一篇专栏文章中写道:“放松点。拜登将于1月20日宣誓就职。”8bL世界播


Bitcoin rockets past $18,000. The all-time high is in sight 8bL世界播


Even so, the JPMorgan strategist laid out several developments that could cast doubt on that outcome, including that one or more states submit competing slates of electors. Those competing slates would then be resolved January 6 by the new Congress through rules spelled out in the Electoral Count Act of 1887. 8bL世界播


"The nightmare scenario for markets," according to Cembalest, would be if Senate Republicans declare the ECA unconstitutional, flip three states in Trump's favor to give him the required 270 electoral votes and Democrats refuse to participate. 8bL世界播


"All of which sets up the prospect of dueling inaugurations," Cembalest wrote, noting that this outcome was only "narrowly averted" in 1876. 8bL世界播


Another risk laid out by Cembalest is if Barr directs investigators to "seize or impound election records" to probe for voter fraud, slowing down the process. 8bL世界播


Dimon: 'We have a new president' 8bL世界播


For the most part, investors have appeared to ignore Trump's war on the election results. 8bL世界播


Markets have not flinched in response to headlines about his campaign's many lawsuits. If anything, Wall Street came to terms with the outcome of the election even before CNN and other media outlets projected Biden to be the winner. 8bL世界播


Investors have largely focused on other matters, including the makeup of the US Senate, progress in the quest to develop a coronavirus vaccine to fight the worsening pandemic and the prospects for the economic recovery. 8bL世界播



A messy Trump-Biden transition will derail desperately needed stimulus 8bL世界播


But some are beginning to raise concerns about a transfer of power. 8bL世界播


"I think we're making far too little of this," CNBC anchor Jim Cramer said Wednesday while expressing worries about a peaceful transition to a new administration. 8bL世界播

CNBC主播吉姆·克雷默(Jim Cramer)周三表示:“我认为我们对这件事做得太少了。”他同时表达了对和平过渡到新政府的担忧。8bL世界播

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said that although her firm's experts don't see much of a risk of "rogue" electors, there "could certainly still be some black swan political event." 8bL世界播

嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席投资策略师利兹·安·桑德斯(Liz Ann Sonders)表示,尽管嘉信理财的专家认为选举人“流氓”的风险不大,但“肯定仍有可能发生一些黑天鹅政治事件”。8bL世界播

Perhaps heeding the warnings of Cembalest, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly urged Americans to respect the outcome of the election. 8bL世界播

摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)可能听从了坎巴莱斯特的警告,一再敦促美国人尊重选举结果。8bL世界播

"We need a peaceful transition. We had an election. We have a new president," Dimon said Wednesday during The New York Time's virtual DealBook conference. "You should support that whether you like it or not, because it's based on a system of faith and trust." 8bL世界播

“我们需要和平过渡。我们进行了选举。我们有了新总统。”戴蒙周三在“纽约时报”(New York Time)的虚拟DealBook会议上说。“不管你喜不喜欢,你都应该支持它,因为它是建立在信仰和信任的基础上的。”8bL世界播

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