不断下降的“实际”收益率驱使投资者抛售债券

2020-11-18 08:09

Falling ‘Real’ Yields Drive Investors to Junk Bonds dsh世界播

不断下降的“实际”收益率驱使投资者抛售债券dsh世界播


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Investors have scooped up American Airlines bonds in recent weeks. The carrier is among a group of high-yield borrowers expected to benefit from an economic recovery. dsh世界播

最近几周,投资者纷纷买入美国航空公司(American Airlines)债券。这家航空公司是预计将从经济复苏中受益的一批高收益借款人之一dsh世界播


Investors are pointing to one key factor lurking beneath a recent rally in U.S. junk bonds: real yields. dsh世界播

投资者指出,美国垃圾债券近期反弹背后隐藏着一个关键因素:实际收益率。dsh世界播


Real yields are what investors earn from their bondholdings after compensating for inflation. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near zero, accounting for inflation meant investors could expect to lose money holding U.S. Treasurys to maturity. dsh世界播

实际收益率是投资者在补偿通胀因素后从持有的债券中赚取的收益。在美联储(Federal Reserve)将利率降至接近零的水平后,考虑到通胀因素,投资者可能会因持有美国国债到期而蒙受损失。dsh世界播


Analysts said falling real yields for U.S. investment-grade bonds are driving some investors in search of higher returns to the high-yield market. The real yield on a Bloomberg Barclays investment-grade corporate-bond index has fallen to around 0.2%, according to data compiled from FactSet, from above 0.3% at the beginning of November. dsh世界播

分析师表示,美国投资级债券的实际收益率不断下降,正促使一些投资者向高收益市场寻求更高的回报。FactSet汇编的数据显示,彭博巴克莱(Bloomberg Barclays)投资级公司债券指数的实际收益率已从11月初的0.3%以上降至0.2%左右。dsh世界播


Falling real yields “are pushing many investors out on the risk spectrum,” said John McClain, portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management. “If you’re buying investment-grade bonds out to 10 years, you’re earning a potentially negative real yield.” dsh世界播

钻石山资本管理公司(Diamond Hill Capital Management)的投资组合经理约翰·麦克莱恩(John McClain)表示,实际收益率下降“正将许多投资者挤出风险范围”。“如果你购买10年期的投资级债券,你的实际收益率可能为负。”dsh世界播


Demand for speculative-grade bonds also has improved following the U.S. presidential election and signs of progress toward a vaccine for Covid-19. Those have been a boon to economically sensitive companies including American Airlines Group Inc. and Occidental Petroleum Corp. , seen as likely to benefit from a post-pandemic economic recovery. dsh世界播

在美国总统大选之后,对投机级债券的需求也有所改善,而且有迹象表明,新冠肺炎在接种疫苗方面取得了进展。这对包括美国航空集团(American Airlines Group Inc.)在内的经济敏感公司来说是一个福音。西方石油公司(Occidental Petroleum Corp.)被认为可能受益于大流行后的经济复苏。dsh世界播


This increased demand is helping bring down the extra compensation investors require to hold junk bonds to near pre-pandemic levels. Adjusted for options, the spread, or extra yield demanded to hold speculative-grade U.S. corporate bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays index over Treasury bonds, fell to 4.27 percentage points Monday, according to FactSet. That brings the index’s spread down to around 0.2 percentage points from the Nov. 9 close—the lowest level since late February. dsh世界播

这种增加的需求正在帮助投资者将持有垃圾债券所需的额外补偿降至接近大流行前的水平。根据FactSet的数据,经期权调整后,彭博巴克莱指数(Bloomberg Barclays Index)中持有投机级美国公司债券所需的额外收益率与美国国债的利差周一降至4.27个百分点。这使得该指数与11月9日收盘时的利差降至0.2个百分点左右,这是自2月底以来的最低水平。dsh世界播


November’s rally extended the junk-bond market’s recovery. Fears this spring that the coronavirus crisis would spur bankruptcies and a prolonged recession drove many investors to dump lower-rated corporate bonds, sending bond prices down and yields up past 10%—a level that indicates market stress. dsh世界播

11月份的反弹延续了垃圾债券市场的复苏。今年春天,由于担心冠状病毒危机将导致破产和长期衰退,许多投资者纷纷抛售评级较低的公司债券,导致债券价格下跌,收益率升至10%以上,这一水平表明市场压力很大。dsh世界播


Now, investors’ move into companies poised to benefit from a resurgence of growth boosted the high-yield market broadly, because it includes many borrowers that operate in so-called value sectors, such as energy, financials, and industrials, among others. dsh世界播

现在,投资者进入有望从增长复苏中受益的公司,提振了高收益市场,因为其中包括许多在能源、金融和工业等所谓价值行业运营的借款人。dsh世界播


“The [corporate] constituency that makes up high yield is very pro-cyclical, so the market is seeing some benefits from the rotation into value,” said Mr. McClain. Diamond Hill’s high-yield fund gained 7.35% this year as of Oct. 31, placing it in the first percentile of managers surveyed by Morningstar. dsh世界播

麦克莱恩说:“构成高收益的(企业)群体是非常顺周期的,所以市场看到了价值轮换带来的一些好处。”截至10月31日,钻石山(Diamond Hill)的高收益基金今年上涨了7.35%,在晨星(Morningstar)调查的基金经理中排名第一。dsh世界播


On Monday, after the latest round of encouraging results from vaccine trials, the extra yield investors demanded to hold investment-grade U.S. bonds in the Bloomberg index over Treasury bonds stood at 1.12 percentage points, the lowest level since late February. dsh世界播

周一,在疫苗试验的最新一轮令人鼓舞的结果公布后,投资者要求在彭博指数(Bloomberg Index)中持有投资级美国债券的收益率比持有美国国债的收益率高出1.12个百分点,这是自2月底以来的最低水平。dsh世界播


Elsewhere in bond markets, U.S. Treasury yields fell, snapping a two-day streak of gains. The declines followed Commerce Department data that showed retail sales in October increased less than expected, raising questions of a slowing economic recovery. dsh世界播

在债券市场的其他方面,美国国债收益率下跌,结束了连续两天的上涨。在此之前,美国商务部(Commerce Department)公布的数据显示,10月份零售额增幅低于预期,引发了经济复苏放缓的问题。dsh世界播


The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note finished Tuesday’s session at 0.872%, down from 0.906% at Monday’s close. dsh世界播

周二收盘时,基准10年期美国国债收益率为0.872%,低于周一收盘时的0.906%。dsh世界播


Corrections & Amplifications Diamond Hill Capital Management’s high-yield fund gained 7.35% this year as of Oct. 31. An earlier version of this article misstated the date as Oct. 21. (Corrected on Nov. 17) dsh世界播

修正与放大截至10月31日,钻石山资本管理公司(Diamond Hill Capital Management)的高收益基金今年上涨了7.35%。这篇文章的早期版本将日期误报为10月21日。(更正于11月17日)dsh世界播

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