2020-10-14 07:37

A contested election could cost America its AAA credit rating hhg世界播



Without additional stimulus, inequality could get worse hhg世界播


New York (CNN Business)A messy election could harm more than just faith in democracy — it could also cost the United States its perfect credit rating. hhg世界播


Fitch Ratings wrote in a report Monday that it will closely monitor the US presidential election for "any departure" from America's history of orderly transfers of power. hhg世界播

惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)周一在一份报告中写道,它将密切关注美国总统选举,看其是否与美国有序移交权力的历史“任何背道而驰”。hhg世界播

The United States has a perfect AAA credit rating from Fitch in part because of its track record for strong governance, including "well-understood rules and processes for the transfer of power," the report said. hhg世界播


"Fitch would view a departure from this principle negatively in considering the US rating," the credit ratings firm said. hhg世界播


In other words, a very messy election could cost the United States its AAA credit rating from Fitch. hhg世界播



Trump's lead over Biden on the economy has vanished hhg世界播


A downgrade could cause an erosion of confidence among investors, potentially setting off turbulence in financial markets. It could also make it more expensive for the United States to finance its mountain of debt. In July, Fitch lowered its outlook on the United States to negative in part because of the "ongoing deterioration" in the nation's public finances — and the lack of a plan to address it. hhg世界播


Fitch said that it will be monitoring for signs that the election results will be "broadly accepted" and that there will either be an "orderly retention or transition of power" on January 20, 2021. hhg世界播


The fact that a major credit ratings firm even has to issue such a warning about one of the hallmarks of democracy underscores the deepening political divide in the United States and nervousness on Wall Street about the election. A contested election is the most commonly cited concern among portfolio managers surveyed by RBC Capital Markets, surpassing even worries about the economy and the pandemic. hhg世界播

一家大型信用评级公司甚至不得不就民主的标志之一发出这样的警告,这一事实突显了美国不断加深的政治分歧和华尔街对选举的紧张情绪。在加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)调查的投资组合经理中,竞争激烈的选举是最常被提及的担忧,甚至超过了对经济和疫情的担忧。hhg世界播

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon expressed confidence Tuesday in the ability to get through the election. hhg世界播

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)周二表示,有信心有能力通过选举。hhg世界播

"I have great faith in this country and I'm sure we'll have a proper election," Dimon told reporters during a conference call in response to a question about doubts over election results. hhg世界播


Fitch: Election uncertainty could last for weeks hhg世界播


For months, investors have been bracing for post-election chaos that could rattle financial markets. Those worries have been amplified by President Donald Trump's baseless claims that the election is "rigged" because of unfounded concerns about mail-in ballots. hhg世界播

几个月来,投资者一直在为选举后的混乱做准备,这可能会扰乱金融市场。唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统毫无根据地声称,由于对邮寄选票的毫无根据的担忧,选举被“操纵”,这加剧了这些担忧。hhg世界播

But the International Monetary Fund, which downgraded its 2021 global economic forecasts, isn't expecting election fireworks. hhg世界播

但下调了2021年全球经济预测的国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)并不指望选举会有烟花。hhg世界播

"Our assumption for the US is that there will be no serious disruption during the elections or after the elections," Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist, said during a news conference Tuesday. "This is supposed to take place like any other previous election in the US. Of course, if that is not the case and there is heightened political uncertainty and disruptions that obviously would be a downside risk to the forecast." hhg世界播

IMF首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)在周二的新闻发布会上表示:“我们对美国的假设是,在选举期间或选举之后不会出现严重的干扰。”“这应该和美国以前的任何一次选举一样进行。当然,如果情况并非如此,而且政治不确定性和混乱加剧,这显然会给预测带来下行风险。”hhg世界播

Still, Fitch said that the popularity of mail-in voting because of the pandemic means that uncertainty over the winner of the election "could conceivably last for weeks" after the November 3 election. hhg世界播


"The challenges surrounding the voting process increase the likelihood that results at a state or national level will be disputed by one or both of the candidates or party organizations," the report said. hhg世界播


'Deepening political polarization' hhg世界播


Of course, there is a precedent for a messy election. The 2000 recount lingered for five weeks, driving down the S&P 500, before being halted by the US Supreme Court. Former Vice President Al Gore eventually conceded to George W. Bush, who was sworn in as the 43rd US president weeks later. hhg世界播

当然,混乱的选举是有先例的。2000年的重新计票持续了5周,压低了标准普尔500指数,随后被美国最高法院叫停。前副总统阿尔·戈尔(Al Gore)最终向乔治·W·布什(George W.Bush)承认了这一点,布什在几周后宣誓就任美国第43任总统。hhg世界播

"The disputed 2000 presidential election did not weaken investor trust in the US," Fitch said. hhg世界播


In 2011, S&P Global Ratings took the unprecedented step of downgrading the US credit rating because of the brinksmanship over raising the debt ceiling. However, the other two major credit ratings firms, Fitch and Moody's, kept their AAA ratings on the United States. hhg世界播

2011年,标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)采取了史无前例的举措,下调了美国的信用评级,原因是在提高债务上限问题上采取了边缘政策。不过,另外两家主要信用评级公司惠誉和穆迪维持对美国的AAA评级。hhg世界播


America could really, truly get infrastructure improvements soon hhg世界播


Fitch noted that the debt limit disputes of 2011 and 2013 as well as recurring government shutdowns have had a "limited impact" on trust in the United States. hhg世界播


The United States entered the pandemic with the highest debt of any AAA-rated government. And the latest projections indicate that US debt is now larger than the entire size of the economy — the first time that has happened since just after World War II. hhg世界播


"The potential for a disputed election result reflects deepening political polarization," Fitch wrote, "which could affect the next administration's policymaking scope and how it approaches public policy decision making on key issues." hhg世界播


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