投票权之争如何彻底改变美国选举

2021-03-07 00:22

How a voting rights battle could overhaul U.S. elections SBs世界播

投票权之争如何彻底改变美国选举SBs世界播


What’s happening SBs世界播

出什么事了。SBs世界播


The debate over the next coronavirus stimulus package has garnered enormous attention in recent weeks. Meanwhile, a quieter battle over voting rights has been taking place that could fundamentally alter how American elections function. SBs世界播

最近几周,关于下一个冠状病毒刺激方案的辩论引起了极大的关注。与此同时,一场更安静的投票权之争正在发生,这可能会从根本上改变美国选举的运作方式。SBs世界播


The House of Representatives on Wednesday passed a sweeping voting rights reform package known as H.R. 1. The bill, also known as the For the People Act, includes a long list of reforms that would expand voting opportunities nationwide, including mandatory early voting periods, automatic voter registration and no-excuse vote by mail. It also seeks to end partisan gerrymandering by requiring that congressional districts be drawn by independent commissions. SBs世界播

周三,众议院通过了一项名为H.R.1的全面投票权改革方案。该法案也被称为《为人民法案》(For The People Act),其中包括一长串改革措施,这些改革将在全国范围内扩大投票机会,包括强制提前投票期、自动选民登记和无借口邮寄投票。它还试图通过要求国会选区由独立委员会划分来结束党派不公正的选区划分。SBs世界播


Opponents of the bill are also taking aggressive steps to rewrite voting laws in a more restrictive way at the state level in the wake of Donald Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential race. So far this year, more than 250 bills that would install new limits on voting have been introduced in more than 43 states. Some of the most substantial changes have been proposed in swing states, like Georgia and Florida, that played a key role in the 2020 election. SBs世界播

在唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在2020年总统竞选中落败后,该法案的反对者也在采取激进措施,在州一级以更具限制性的方式重写投票法。今年到目前为止,超过43个州已经提出了250多项将对投票施加新限制的法案。佐治亚州和佛罗里达州等摇摆州提出了一些最实质性的变化,这些州在2020年的选举中发挥了关键作用。SBs世界播


The courts will play a major role in deciding which voting laws stay in place. This week the Supreme Court heard arguments on a challenge to a pair of voting restrictions in Arizona, with Democrats citing substantial evidence that the limits would disproportionately affect people of color. The case is seen by many legal experts as an opportunity for the court’s conservative majority to further roll back protections of the Votings Rights Act and open the door for Republicans to pass even more restrictive voting laws in the future. SBs世界播

法院将在决定保留哪些投票法方面发挥重要作用。本周,最高法院听取了对亚利桑那州两项投票限制的挑战的辩论,民主党人援引大量证据表明,这些限制将对有色人种造成不成比例的影响。许多法律专家认为,该案是最高法院保守派多数派进一步撤销《沃廷斯权利法案》(Votings Rights Act)保护措施的机会,并为共和党人未来通过更具限制性的投票法打开了大门。SBs世界播


Why there’s debate SBs世界播

为什么会有争论。SBs世界播


Voting laws changed substantially last year as states expanded measures like vote by mail in response to the pandemic, but election experts across the political spectrum say the coming months could have a more dramatic and enduring impact. SBs世界播

去年,随着各州扩大邮寄投票等措施以应对疫情,选举法发生了重大变化,但各政治派别的选举专家表示,未来几个月可能会产生更戏剧性和持久的影响。SBs世界播


In states where Republicans control the legislature and governorship, they will face little opposition in passing voting restrictions on who can vote by mail, reduced early voting and limits on how ballots can be collected. Many GOP lawmakers argue these measures are necessary to prevent fraud, despite a lack of evidence that fraud has played a significant role in recent elections. Critics argue that Republicans are using baseless fraud claims to rig future elections in their favor by passing laws that make it harder for likely Democratic voters to cast ballots. SBs世界播

在共和党控制立法机构和州长职位的州,他们在通过对谁可以通过邮件投票的投票限制,减少提前投票,以及对选票收集方式的限制方面,几乎不会面临什么反对意见。许多共和党议员认为,这些措施对于防止舞弊是必要的,尽管缺乏证据表明舞弊在最近的选举中发挥了重要作用。批评人士认为,共和党人正在利用毫无根据的欺诈指控,通过法律,使可能的民主党选民更难投票,从而操纵未来的选举,使之对他们有利。SBs世界播


Many of these laws will face legal challenges, but recent history suggests the Supreme Court is likely to let many of them stand, experts say. Over the past decade, the court’s conservative majority chipped away at limits on voting restrictions — including effectively nullifying a key provision of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. The case currently being considered could result in another major section of the act being voided. SBs世界播

专家表示,其中许多法律将面临法律挑战,但最近的历史表明,最高法院可能会让其中许多法律成立。在过去的十年里,最高法院的保守派多数派逐渐削弱了对投票限制的限制--包括在2013年有效地废除了“选举权法案”(Voting Rights Act)的一项关键条款。目前正在考虑的案件可能导致该法案的另一个主要部分被撤销。SBs世界播


With H.R. 1, Democrats could not only reverse a large share of the GOP voting restrictions, but also expand voting access in entirely new ways. Though it moved comfortably through the House, the package faces a steep climb in the Senate. Republicans are sure to filibuster the bill, meaning it can only pass if all 50 Senate Democrats are willing to eliminate the filibuster — a step that at least two moderate Democratic senators have publicly opposed. Many voting rights advocates argue that national election reforms are the only way to prevent the GOP from enshrining state-level laws that make it nearly impossible for Democrats to win future national elections. SBs世界播

有了H.R.1,民主党人不仅可以取消共和党投票限制的很大一部分,而且还可以以全新的方式扩大投票渠道。尽管该方案在众议院顺利通过,但在参议院面临着陡峭的攀升。共和党人肯定会阻挠这项法案,这意味着只有在参议院所有50名民主党人都愿意消除阻挠议事的情况下,该法案才能获得通过-这一步至少有两名温和派民主党参议员公开反对。许多投票权倡导者认为,全国选举改革是防止共和党将州级法律奉为神圣的唯一途径,这些法律使民主党几乎不可能在未来的全国选举中获胜。SBs世界播


What’s next SBs世界播

下一步是什么?SBs世界播


The Senate will hold its first hearings on the For the People Act later this month. As a potential floor vote approaches, all eyes will be on moderate Democrats like Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin to see whether they are willing to amend or eliminate the filibuster to pass the bill. Democrats are also hoping to pass a separate bill to restore protections within the Voting Rights Act sometime in the near future. SBs世界播

参议院将于本月晚些时候就为人民法案举行第一次听证会。随着潜在的众议院投票的临近,所有人的目光都将集中在基尔斯滕·西内马(Kirsten Sinema)和乔·曼钦(Joe Manin)等温和派民主党人身上,看看他们是否愿意修改或消除拖延战术,以通过该法案。民主党人还希望在不久的将来通过一项单独的法案,恢复投票权法案中的保护措施。SBs世界播


Perspectives SBs世界播

透视。SBs世界播


The current fight over voting rights will shape the future of U.S. democracy SBs世界播

目前的投票权之争将塑造美国民主的未来。SBs世界播


“It’s no exaggeration to say that future Americans could view the resolution of this struggle as a turning point in the history of U.S. democracy. The outcome could not only shape the balance of power between the parties, but determine whether that democracy grows more inclusive or exclusionary.” — Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic SBs世界播

“毫不夸张地说,未来的美国人可以将这场斗争的解决视为美国民主历史上的一个转折点。这一结果不仅可能塑造政党之间的力量平衡,还将决定民主变得更具包容性还是排他性。“--罗纳德·布朗斯坦(Ronald Brownstein),”大西洋月刊“。SBs世界播


The Supreme Court is primed to sign off on aggressive new voting restrictions SBs世界播

最高法院准备签署激进的新投票限制SBs世界播


“Because conservatives now hold a 6–3 majority on the court, no one seriously expects a resounding victory for equal suffrage. The only real question is exactly how much damage the majority will do to the last vestiges of the landmark civil rights law.” — Mark Joseph Stern, Slate SBs世界播

“因为保守派现在在法庭上以6比3的优势占据多数,没有人真的期待平等选举权会大获全胜。唯一真正的问题是,多数派到底会对这部具有里程碑意义的民权法律的最后遗迹造成多大的损害。“--马克·约瑟夫·斯特恩(Mark Joseph Stern),”板岩“(Slate)。SBs世界播


U.S. democracy is under threat if Democrats don’t defend it SBs世界播

如果民主党人不捍卫美国的民主,它将受到威胁。SBs世界播


“In other words, if we want a good chance of American democracy continuing to exist at all, HR1 is a necessary precondition.” — Ryan Cooper, The Week SBs世界播

“换句话说,如果我们想要美国民主继续存在的好机会,HR1是一个必要的前提条件。”--瑞安·库珀(Ryan Cooper),“周刊”(The Week)。SBs世界播


Voting rights may be the issue that finally ends the filibuster SBs世界播

投票权可能是最终结束拖延战术的问题。SBs世界播


“Debate over the filibuster … is already at a boiling point. If the filibuster winds up killing democracy reform, it may be what finally drives Democrats to turn around and kill the filibuster.” — Paul Blumenthal, HuffPost SBs世界播

“关于阻挠议事的…的辩论。已经达到沸点了。如果阻挠议事最终扼杀了民主改革,这可能是最终驱使民主党人转过身来扼杀拖延战术的原因。“--”赫芬顿邮报“的保罗·布鲁门撒尔(Paul Blumenthal)。SBs世界播


H.R. 1 would create nationwide election chaos SBs世界播

H.R.1将在全国范围内制造选举混乱。SBs世界播


“H.R. 1 is packed with provisions that would federalize election rules to dubious result; unsettle longstanding practices; end security measures that local officials think prudent; undermine public confidence; and increase the odds of contested outcomes.” — Editorial, Wall Street Journal SBs世界播

“H.R.1有很多条款,这些条款将使选举规则联邦化,结果令人怀疑;扰乱长期的做法;结束地方官员认为谨慎的安全措施;破坏公众信心;增加有争议结果的可能性。”--“华尔街日报”社论。SBs世界播


An unfavorable Supreme Court ruling could motivate Democrats to pass election reforms SBs世界播

最高法院的不利裁决可能会激励民主党人通过选举改革。SBs世界播


“If the Supreme Court moves decisively to narrow Section 2’s impact this summer, it may end up fueling the most sweeping reform of American election laws since, well, the Voting Rights Act of 1965.” — Matt Ford, New Republic SBs世界播

“如果最高法院今年夏天果断采取行动,缩小第二条款的影响,最终可能会推动美国选举法自1965年”选举权法案“(Voting Rights Act)以来最彻底的改革。”--马特·福特(Matt Ford),新共和。SBs世界播


Republicans know they can’t win national elections if the rules are fair SBs世界播

共和党人知道,如果规则公平,他们就无法赢得全国选举。SBs世界播


“The Republican Party knows that it cannot win a national majority if voting is easy and smooth for everyone. So election laws must be shaped to make it harder for some people than others. It’s about the most important political project Republicans have.” — Paul Waldman, Washington Post SBs世界播

“共和党知道,如果投票对每个人来说都是容易和顺利的,它就无法赢得全国多数席位。因此,必须制定选举法,让一些人比其他人更难做到这一点。这是共和党人拥有的最重要的政治项目。“--保罗·沃尔德曼,”华盛顿邮报“。SBs世界播


The left is overreacting to the GOP’s common-sense voting reforms SBs世界播

左翼对共和党的常识性投票改革反应过度。SBs世界播


“Terms such as ‘voting restrictions’ are tantamount to calling traffic laws ‘driving restrictions.’ They are conveniently ominous sounding, leaving room for endless partisan weaponization against existing laws. … Whereas actual ‘voter suppression’ was once maliciously deployed to obstruct the rights of American citizens, the term now basically implicates a Republican failing to personally mail in his illegal immigrant neighbor’s ballot ten days after an election.” — David Harsanyi, National Review SBs世界播

“像‘投票限制’这样的字眼,无异于把交通法称为‘驾驶限制’。”它们听起来像是不祥的预兆,为针对现有法律的无休止的党派武器化留下了空间。…。虽然实际的‘选民压制’曾经被恶意地用来阻挠美国公民的权利,但现在这个词基本上是指共和党人在选举后10天没有亲自邮寄他的非法移民邻居的选票。“--《国家评论》大卫·哈桑尼(David Harsanyi)--大卫·哈桑尼(David Harsanyi),《国家评论》(National Review)。SBs世界播


No one knows which party would benefit from either expanding or limiting voting access SBs世界播

没有人知道哪个政党会从扩大或限制投票渠道中受益。SBs世界播


“What if the election reform warriors of both parties are wrong? What if more voter enfranchisement and access don’t help Democrats win elections? What if Republican suppression tactics are inadvertently galvanizing Democrats and suppressing their own vote?— Bill Scher, Washington Monthly SBs世界播

“如果两党的选举改革斗士都错了怎么办?如果更多的投票权和访问权不能帮助民主党赢得选举,那该怎么办?如果共和党的压制策略在不经意间刺激了民主党人,压制了他们自己的选票,那该怎么办?--比尔·谢尔,《华盛顿月刊》SBs世界播

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