欢迎来到鲍里斯·约翰逊的绿色革命

2020-11-19 18:07

Welcome to Boris Johnson’s Revolution dKD世界播

欢迎来到鲍里斯·约翰逊的绿色革命dKD世界播


(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Boris Johnson’s new 10-point “green industrial revolution” for tackling climate change shows this government is capable of big thinking, in case anyone watching Brexit was wondering. Unfortunately, the prime minister’s budget spend of 12 billion pounds ($15.9 billion) doesn’t live up to the overall ambition of reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050. dKD世界播

(彭博社观点)--鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)为应对气候变化而提出的新的10点“绿色工业革命”表明,本届政府有能力大刀阔斧地思考,以防任何关注英国退欧的人感到疑惑。不幸的是,首相120亿英镑(159亿美元)的预算支出没有达到到2050年实现净零碳排放的总体目标。dKD世界播


The plan lists a series of ambitious targets, such as banning diesel and gas cars from 2030, investing in nuclear and hydrogen power technologies, and installing 600,000 heat pumps every year. It pledges to create 250,000 jobs, many in the poorer, industrial north of the country. dKD世界播

该计划列出了一系列雄心勃勃的目标,比如从2030年起禁止柴油和天然气汽车,投资于核能和氢能技术,以及每年安装60万个热泵。它承诺创造25万个就业机会,其中许多位于该国北部较贫穷的工业地区。dKD世界播


As is often the case with Johnson, however, the image doesn’t quite match the reality. Imagine, he wrote in the Financial Times, when “you cook breakfast using hydrogen power before getting in your electric car, having charged it overnight from batteries made in the Midlands. Around you the air is cleaner, trucks, trains, ships and planes run on hydrogen or synthetic fuel.” dKD世界播

然而,就像约翰逊经常出现的情况一样,这张照片与现实不符。他在英国《金融时报》上写道,想象一下,当你在上电动车之前用氢能做早餐,用英格兰中部制造的电池通宵充电。你周围的空气更加清洁,卡车、火车、轮船和飞机都使用氢气或合成燃料。“。dKD世界播


This vision is going to be expensive. Eliminating gas and diesel car sales over the next decade sounds good, but the reality is electric vehicles currently account for less than 1% of cars on the road. Decarbonizing homes is a worthy goal too, but there are 19 million houses across the country that are not energy efficient. The costs of retrofitting them far exceed the government’s budget. dKD世界播

这一愿景将是昂贵的。未来十年取消汽油和柴油车的销售听起来不错,但现实情况是,电动汽车目前在道路上行驶的汽车中所占比例不到1%。房屋脱碳也是一个有价值的目标,但全国有1900万所房屋不节能。改造它们的成本远远超过了政府的预算。dKD世界播


The U.K. can certainly point to significant progress in recent years. Greenhouse gas emissions decreased more than 43% from 1990 to 2018, while low-carbon energy generation has risen at a much faster pace. The country leads the G20 in decarbonizing. dKD世界播

英国肯定可以指出,近年来取得了重大进展。从1990年到2018年,温室气体排放量减少了43%以上,而低碳能源发电量的增长速度要快得多。中国在20国集团(G20)脱碳方面处于领先地位。dKD世界播


And yet, the gap between current levels of emissions and the 2050 target remains huge. A report this week from PwC estimates Britain will need another 400 billion pounds of infrastructure investment over the next decade to meet its target. The IPPR think tank has similarly warned that the U.K. will need to spend 33 billion pounds a year to meet its goals. dKD世界播

然而,目前的排放水平与2050年的目标之间的差距仍然很大。普华永道(PwC)本周的一份报告估计,英国未来十年还需要4000亿英镑的基础设施投资才能实现目标。IPPR智库也同样警告说,英国每年需要花费330亿英镑才能实现其目标。dKD世界播


If revolutions are meant to be dramatic and overarching, Johnson’s has been more of a fits-and-starts affair, with emphasis on the flag-waving rather than the check-writing. Less than a third of the expenditure announced Wednesday is new money. French President Emmanuel Macron has announced three times the U.K.’s budget for new environmental measures over a two-year period. Germany is spending 40 billion euros ($47.48 billion) on a green recovery package. dKD世界播

如果说革命注定是戏剧性的和压倒性的,那么约翰逊的革命更像是断断续续的,强调的是挥舞旗帜,而不是写支票。周三宣布的支出中,只有不到三分之一是新资金。法国总统伊曼纽尔·马克龙宣布了英国两年内新环境措施预算的三倍。德国将花费400亿欧元(474.8亿美元)用于绿色复苏一揽子计划。dKD世界播


Between Brexit talks inching toward a funereal conclusion, the pandemic upheaval and the recent personnel changes at Downing Street, a change of subject must feel refreshing for the prime minister. But it also underscores how little attention the most important problem facing humanity has received from the U.K. government lately. dKD世界播

在英国退欧谈判逐渐接近葬礼结束、疫情剧变以及唐宁街(Downing Street)最近的人事变动之间,话题的改变肯定会让首相感到耳目一新。但这也突显了最近英国政府对人类面临的最重要问题的关注程度有多低。dKD世界播


With Britain due to host the COP26 UN Climate summit in Glasgow next year, Johnson has struggled to find someone to serve as the event’s President of the Conference of Parties, a position that would normally go to a politician of international standing such as a former prime minister or foreign minister. Two former U.K. prime ministers and a former foreign secretary said they didn’t want the post. The job is currently being fit in around the already busy ministerial schedule of Business Secretary Alok Sharma. dKD世界播

由于英国将于明年在格拉斯哥主办COP26联合国气候峰会,约翰逊一直在努力寻找一位担任该活动的缔约方大会主席的人选,这一职位通常会由前首相或外交部长等具有国际地位的政治家担任。两位英国前首相和一位前外交大臣说,他们不想要这个职位。这项工作目前正安排在商务部长阿洛克·夏尔马(Alok Sharma)本已忙碌的部长级日程上。dKD世界播


If the looming summit didn’t light a fire under Johnson, perhaps the election of Joe Biden has. Like Johnson’s partner Carrie Symonds, Biden cares a great deal about climate policy and plans to revive U.S. leadership on the subject. The President-elect pledged to rejoin COP26, which the U.S. left under Trump. dKD世界播

如果迫在眉睫的峰会没有在约翰逊的领导下点燃一把火,那么乔·拜登(Joe Biden)的当选可能已经点燃了一把火。和约翰逊的伴侣凯莉·西蒙兹一样,拜登非常关心气候政策,并计划恢复美国在这一问题上的领导地位。这位当选总统承诺重新加入联合国气候变化框架公约第26号公约,美国在特朗普执政期间退出了该公约。dKD世界播


The U.K. argues that it’s not the size of its spend but the specificity of the plan that matters. Downing Street predicts that new public investment in carbon capture, electric vehicles, hydrogen and renewables will mobilize three times as much private sector support, bringing the total spend to around 50 billion pounds. Given budget constraints, it’s hardly surprising that some of Johnson’s most ambitious targets, such as banning fuel and diesel cars, deputize companies and consumers with the heavy lifting. dKD世界播

英国辩称,重要的不是支出的规模,而是计划的具体程度。唐宁街预测,在碳捕获、电动汽车、氢气和可再生能源领域的新公共投资,将动员三倍于私营部门的支持,使总支出达到500亿英镑左右。考虑到预算限制,约翰逊的一些最雄心勃勃的目标,如禁止燃油和柴油车,让公司和消费者承担重担也就不足为奇了。dKD世界播


Of course, the private sector will continue to be a major generator of change. As Britain’s Climate Change Committee has noted, the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions have been grossly overestimated. Recent modeling places these at around 1% of GDP, but continual improvements in zero-carbon technologies mean that eventually the costs might come down. dKD世界播

当然,私营部门仍将是变革的主要推动者。正如英国气候变化委员会所指出的那样,减少温室气体排放的成本被严重高估了。最近的模型显示,这些成本约占GDP的1%,但零碳技术的持续改进意味着,最终成本可能会下降。dKD世界播


Still, the transition will be costly, and political acceptance will depend on whether the public believes those costs are fair and equitably distributed. Governments need to nudge with new regulatory and tax policies, as well as spend heavily. For example, without changing building regulations for energy efficiency, it will be hard to direct private sector investment in that direction. dKD世界播

尽管如此,过渡将是代价高昂的,政治接受程度将取决于公众是否相信这些成本是公平和公平分配的。各国政府需要推动新的监管和税收政策,同时大举支出。例如,如果不改变建筑节能法规,就很难将私营部门的投资引向这一方向。dKD世界播


The 10-point plan released Wednesday isn’t a detailed blueprint. The real test of the government’s commitment will be in the long-awaited energy “white paper” (a policy document that precedes new legislation) due at the end of the month. That should set out how Downing Street plans to achieve its goals. dKD世界播

周三公布的10点计划并不是一份详细的蓝图。对政府承诺的真正考验将出现在期待已久的能源“白皮书”(一份新立法之前的政策文件)中,该白皮书将于本月底发布。这应该说明唐宁街计划如何实现其目标。dKD世界播


There’s a lot to like about the idea of a green industrial revolution and many of the individual targets. But if it is to deliver for Britain and the world what the first industrial revolution did, Johnson has much more to do. dKD世界播

关于绿色工业革命的想法和许多个人目标,有很多值得喜欢的地方。但是,如果要为英国和世界带来第一次工业革命所做的事情,约翰逊还有更多的工作要做。dKD世界播


Therese Raphael is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe. dKD世界播

特蕾西·拉斐尔(Therese Raphael)是彭博观点(Bloomberg Options)的专栏作家。她是《华尔街日报欧洲版》的社论版编辑。dKD世界播

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