最后,马杜罗听到了

2020-11-19 12:01

Finally, Maduro is Listening Dhb世界播

最后,马杜罗听到了Dhb世界播


On Monday, Bloomberg broke the news that Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro is inching toward official dollarization. He has ordered the Banco Central de Venezuela to engage in discussions with Venezuelan bankers on the modalities of creating a clearing and settlement system in U.S. dollars. Maduro, in a rare display of good judgment, is taking a necessary step toward what I have been advocating for many years: official dollarization in Venezuela. Indeed, I first proposed this when I was President Rafael Caldera’s chief adviser in 1995. Dhb世界播

周一,彭博社(Bloomberg)发布了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)正在慢慢走向官方美元化的消息。他已下令委内瑞拉中央银行(Banco Central De委内瑞拉)与委内瑞拉银行家就创建美元清算和结算系统的方式进行讨论。马杜罗罕见地展示了良好的判断力,朝着我多年来一直倡导的委内瑞拉官方美元化迈出了必要的一步。事实上,我在1995年担任总统拉斐尔·卡尔德拉(Rafael Caldera)的首席顾问时首次提出了这一点。Dhb世界播


Unlike the opposition leader Juan Guaidó, who has been recognized as interim president by the United States, the European Union, and others, Maduro has finally received the message about the only way to stop Venezuela’s hyperinflation immediately. If he continues on this path, he will smash hyperinflation and remain in the saddle. Dhb世界播

与反对派领导人胡安·瓜伊多(Juan Guaidó)不同,胡安·瓜伊多已被美国、欧盟和其他国家承认为临时总统,马杜罗终于收到了立即阻止委内瑞拉恶性通货膨胀的唯一途径的信息。如果他继续走这条路,他将粉碎恶性通胀,继续掌权。Dhb世界播


Venezuela’s bolivar is worthless, and its annual inflation rate is the world’s highest. I measure it every day, and today it is 2,156 percent per year. Not surprisingly, Venezuelans get rid of their bolivars like hot potatoes and replace them with U.S. dollars. So, Venezuela is, to a large extent, unofficially dollarized. Dhb世界播

委内瑞拉的玻利瓦尔一文不值,年通货膨胀率是世界上最高的。我每天都在测量,现在是每年2156%。不足为奇的是,委内瑞拉人会像烫手的土豆一样扔掉玻利瓦尔,代之以美元。因此,委内瑞拉在很大程度上是非官方的美元化。Dhb世界播


To stop Venezuela’s death spiral, it must officially dump the bolivar and adopt the greenback. Official “dollarization” is a proven elixir. I know because I operated as a state counselor in Montenegro when it dumped the worthless Yugoslav dinar in 1999 and replaced it with the Deutsche mark. I also watched the successful dollarization of Ecuador in 2001, when I was serving as an adviser to the minister of economy and finance. Dhb世界播

为了阻止委内瑞拉的死亡螺旋,它必须正式抛弃玻利瓦尔,采用美元。官方的“美元化”是经过验证的长生不老药。我之所以知道,是因为1999年黑山抛弃了一文不值的南斯拉夫第纳尔,取而代之的是德国马克,当时我在黑山担任国家顾问。2001年,当我担任经济和财政部长的顾问时,我还目睹了厄瓜多尔成功的美元化。Dhb世界播


Countries that are officially dollarized produce lower, less variable inflation rates and higher, more stable economic growth rates than comparable countries with central banks that issue domestic currencies. There is a tried-and-true way to stabilize the economy — a necessary condition before the massive task of life-giving reforms can begin. It is dollarization. Stability might not be everything, but everything is nothing without stability. Dhb世界播

与央行发行本国货币的可比国家相比,官方美元化国家的通货膨胀率更低、波动更小,经济增长率更高、更稳定。有一种行之有效的稳定经济的方法,这是启动赋予生命的大规模改革任务之前的必要条件。这是美元化。稳定可能不是一切,但没有稳定就什么都不是。Dhb世界播


Just what does the Venezuelan public think of the dollarization idea? To answer that question, I commissioned a professional survey of public opinion that was conducted in March 2017 by Datincorp in Caracas. The results were encouraging. At that time, 62 percent of the public favored dollarization. Today, since more than 80 percent of transactions in Venezuela take place in U.S. dollars, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that the approval rating would now exceed 80 percent. So, it’s not surprising that Maduro has embraced the dollarization idea. After all, the public already does. Dhb世界播

委内瑞拉公众对美元化的想法有何看法?为了回答这个问题,我委托加拉加斯的Datincorp于2017年3月进行了一项专业民意调查。结果令人鼓舞。当时,62%的公众赞成美元化。今天,由于委内瑞拉超过80%的交易是以美元进行的,认为支持率现在将超过80%似乎并不是不合理的。因此,马杜罗接受美元化的想法也就不足为奇了。毕竟,公众已经这么做了。Dhb世界播


But, the question I am repeatedly asked is: How do you officially dollarize a place such as Venezuela? To do that, you need a dollarization law. I have drafted such a model law. The model statute is meant to suggest the main features that are desirable for a law on dollarization. Legal technicalities may require an actual statute to be somewhat different. Dhb世界播

但是,我一再被问到的问题是:像委内瑞拉这样的地方,你是如何正式美元化的?要做到这一点,你需要一部美元化法律。我起草了这样一部法律范本。示范法规旨在提出美元化法律应具备的主要特征。法律上的技术细节可能要求实际的法规有所不同。Dhb世界播


A Model Dollarization Statute For Venezuela Dhb世界播

委内瑞拉美元化法规范本。Dhb世界播


*The Banco Central de Venezuela shall cease to issue Venezuelan bolivars except as replacements for equal amounts of old currency that become worn out. Dhb世界播

*委内瑞拉中央银行将停止发行委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔,除非作为等量旧货币的替代品。Dhb世界播


*Except as specified in paragraph 3, wages, prices, assets, and liabilities shall be converted from Venezuelan bolivars to U.S. dollars (“the replacement currency”) at the conversion rate chosen in the law that accompanies this law. By 60 days after this law enters into force, wages and prices shall cease to be quoted in Venezuelan bolivars. Dhb世界播

*除第3款规定外,工资、价格、资产和负债应按本法所附法律中选择的兑换率从委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔折算成美元(“替代货币”)。在该法生效后60天内,工资和物价应停止使用委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔报价。Dhb世界播


*Interest rates shall be converted into the replacement currency by the following procedure. The independent committee of experts specified in the law accompanying this law shall choose benchmark interest rates in the Venezuelan bolivar and replacement currency, having similar characteristics with respect to maturity and liquidity insofar as that is possible. The ratio between existing interest rates in Venezuelan bolivars and the benchmark interest rate in the Venezuelan bolivar shall determine the interest rate in the replacement currency, which shall bear the same ratio to the benchmark rate in the replacement currency. Dhb世界播

*利率应按以下程序兑换成替代货币。该法所附法律规定的独立专家委员会应选择委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔和替代货币的基准利率,在期限和流动性方面尽可能具有类似的特征。委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔现有利率与委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔基准利率之比决定替代货币利率,与替代货币基准利率之比相同。Dhb世界播


*In no case, however, shall new interest rates in the replacement currency resulting from the conversion procedure exceed 50 percent a year. Dhb世界播

*然而,在任何情况下,由兑换程序产生的以替代货币计算的新利率不得超过每年50%。Dhb世界播


*The president may appoint a committee of experts on technical issues connected with this law to recommend changes in regulations that may be necessary. Dhb世界播

*总统可以任命一个与该法相关的技术问题专家委员会,就可能需要的法规修改提出建议。Dhb世界播


*Nothing in this law shall prevent parties to a transaction from using any currency that is mutually agreeable. However, the replacement currency may be established as the default currency where no other currency is specified. Dhb世界播

*本法不得阻止交易各方使用双方同意的任何货币。但是,在未指定其他货币的情况下,可以将替换货币确定为默认货币。Dhb世界播


*While Venezuelan bolivars remain in circulation, the government shall accept them in payment of taxes at no premium to the conversion rate with the replacement currency. Acceptance of Venezuelan bolivars shall not be obligatory for any other party. Dhb世界播

*委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔仍在流通期间,政府应接受它们,并以不高于替代货币兑换率的方式缴纳税款。其他任何一方都不一定要接受委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔。Dhb世界播


*Within five years after this law takes effect, the government shall redeem all outstanding Venezuelan bolivars for the replacement currency or exchange it for government debt bearing a market-determined rate of interest. Dhb世界播

*在本法生效后的五年内,政府应将所有未偿还的委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔赎回为替代货币,或将其兑换为利率由市场决定的政府债务。Dhb世界播


*Existing laws that conflict with this law are void. Dhb世界播

*与该法相抵触的现行法律无效。Dhb世界播


*This law takes effect immediately upon publication. Dhb世界播

*本法自公布之日起施行。Dhb世界播


With that, Venezuela has a clear blueprint for how to proceed to smash hyperinflation. Dhb世界播

有了这一点,委内瑞拉对于如何继续粉碎恶性通胀有了明确的蓝图。Dhb世界播

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