2020-11-19 10:02

Biden approaches 80 million votes in historic victory b9p世界播


President-elect Joe Biden's winning tally is approaching a record 80 million votes as Democratic bastions continue to count ballots and the 2020 election cracks turnout records. b9p世界播


Biden has already set a record for the highest number of votes for a winning presidential candidate, and President Donald Trump has also notched a high-water mark of the most votes for a losing candidate. With more than 155 million votes counted and California and New York still counting, turnout stands at 65% of all eligible voters, the highest since 1908, according to data from The Associated Press and the U.S. Elections Project. b9p世界播

拜登已经创下了获胜总统候选人的最高票数纪录,唐纳德·特朗普总统也创下了失利候选人得票最多的最高纪录。根据美联社(Associated Press)和美国选举项目(U.S.Options Project)的数据,目前已清点超过1.55亿张选票,加州和纽约州的投票率仍在统计中,投票率为所有合格选民的65%,为1908年以来的最高水平。b9p世界播

The rising Biden tally and his popular vote lead — nearly 6 million votes — come as Trump has escalated his false insistence that he actually won the election, and his campaign and supporters intensify their uphill legal fight to stop or delay results from being certified, potentially nullify the votes of Americans. b9p世界播


“It's just a lot of noise going on, because Donald Trump is a bull who carries his own china shop with him,” said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University. “Once the noise recedes, it's going to be clear that Biden won a very convincing victory.” b9p世界播

赖斯大学(Rice University)总统历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利(Douglas Brinkley)说,“这只是一片喧嚣,因为唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)是一头牛,随身带着他自己的瓷器店。”“一旦噪音消退,很明显拜登赢得了一场非常令人信服的胜利。”b9p世界播

Biden currently has an Electoral College lead of 290-232. But that does not include electors from Georgia, where Biden leads Trump by 0.3 percentage points as officials conduct a hand tally. The AP has not called the race, but if Biden's lead holds he will win the Electoral College on 306-232 vote — the identical margin Trump won in 2016. Back then Trump described it as a “landslide.” b9p世界播


Trump sealed that victory with 77,000 votes across three battleground states, while Biden's margin would be slightly narrower — about 45,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. b9p世界播


That slimmer win, however, is still decisive by election law standards, notes Rick Hasen, a professor at the University of Irvine and an expert on voting. b9p世界播

然而,欧文大学(University Of Irvine)教授、投票专家里克·哈森(Rick Hasen)指出,按照选举法的标准,这场微弱的胜利仍然是决定性的。b9p世界播

While Biden's margins in states like Arizona and Wisconsin seem small — between 12,000 and 20,000 votes — those races aren't nearly narrow enough to be considered likely to flip through a recount or lawsuits. Recounts typically shift total votes by only a few hundred votes. In 2000, the Florida recount and legal battle for the White House was prompted by a 537-vote margin. b9p世界播


“If you're talking about it being close enough to be within what those of us in the field call the margin of litigation, this is not within the margin of litigation,” Hasen said. b9p世界播


Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York University, has compared Biden's still-growing popular vote and Electoral College margins to those of every winner of a presidential election since 1960. His finding: Biden's win was right in the middle — tighter than landslides like Barack Obama's 2008 win or Ronald Reagan's 1984 wipeout reelection, but broader than Trump's 2016 victory or either of George W. Bush's two wins. b9p世界播

纽约大学(New York University)总统历史学家蒂莫西·纳夫塔利(Timothy Naftali)将拜登不断增长的普选和选举人票优势与1960年以来每一次总统选举的获胜者进行了比较。他的发现是:拜登的胜利恰好处于中间--比巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)2008年获胜或罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)1984年大获全胜等滑坡要紧,但比特朗普2016年的胜利或乔治·W·布什(George W.Bush)的两次胜利都要宽泛。b9p世界播

The closest analogy was Obama's reelection, which he won by virtually the same margin as Biden has now. b9p世界播


“Did anyone think 2012 was a narrow victory? No," Naftali said. b9p世界播


Despite that, Trump and his allies are continuing to try to stop certification of the election, in a longshot attempt to deny states the ability to seat electors supporting Biden. These efforts are very unlikely to succeed, but they reached a new pitch this week when two Republican members of the board of canvassers in Michigan's largest county Tuesday night managed to block certification of the votes there. They allowed certification to proceed after an outcry, but it was a sign of how deeply Trump's baseless claims of mass fraud have permeated. b9p世界播


In fact, argued Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks vote counts for the U.S. Elections Project, the relatively narrow Biden wins in battleground states tell a different story than the one the president is pushing. b9p世界播

事实上,追踪美国选举项目计票情况的佛罗里达大学教授迈克尔·麦克唐纳(Michael McDonald)认为,拜登在关键州相对微弱的胜利讲述了一个与总统正在推动的不同的故事。b9p世界播

Democrats have worried that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College tallies is growing as Democratic voters cluster on the coasts and outside of battleground states. That dynamic could make it difficult for Democrats to win congressional races, creating a lasting disadvantage when it comes to advancing policies. b9p世界播


“If there's anything in the data here, it reveals how the system is stacked against the Democrats, not stacked against Trump,” McDonald said. b9p世界播


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