拜登在历史性胜利中接近8000万张选票

2020-11-19 10:02

Biden approaches 80 million votes in historic victory b9p世界播

拜登在历史性胜利中接近8000万张选票b9p世界播


President-elect Joe Biden's winning tally is approaching a record 80 million votes as Democratic bastions continue to count ballots and the 2020 election cracks turnout records. b9p世界播

当选总统乔·拜登的得票数接近创纪录的8000万张,因为民主党堡垒仍在继续计票,2020年的选举打破了投票率纪录。b9p世界播


Biden has already set a record for the highest number of votes for a winning presidential candidate, and President Donald Trump has also notched a high-water mark of the most votes for a losing candidate. With more than 155 million votes counted and California and New York still counting, turnout stands at 65% of all eligible voters, the highest since 1908, according to data from The Associated Press and the U.S. Elections Project. b9p世界播

拜登已经创下了获胜总统候选人的最高票数纪录,唐纳德·特朗普总统也创下了失利候选人得票最多的最高纪录。根据美联社(Associated Press)和美国选举项目(U.S.Options Project)的数据,目前已清点超过1.55亿张选票,加州和纽约州的投票率仍在统计中,投票率为所有合格选民的65%,为1908年以来的最高水平。b9p世界播


The rising Biden tally and his popular vote lead — nearly 6 million votes — come as Trump has escalated his false insistence that he actually won the election, and his campaign and supporters intensify their uphill legal fight to stop or delay results from being certified, potentially nullify the votes of Americans. b9p世界播

拜登的得票率不断上升,以及他在普选中的领先优势--近600万张选票--与此同时,特朗普升级了他关于自己真的赢得了选举的虚假坚称,他的竞选团队和支持者加大了艰难的法律斗争,阻止或推迟选举结果的认证,可能会使美国人的选票无效。b9p世界播


“It's just a lot of noise going on, because Donald Trump is a bull who carries his own china shop with him,” said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University. “Once the noise recedes, it's going to be clear that Biden won a very convincing victory.” b9p世界播

赖斯大学(Rice University)总统历史学家道格拉斯·布林克利(Douglas Brinkley)说,“这只是一片喧嚣,因为唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)是一头牛,随身带着他自己的瓷器店。”“一旦噪音消退,很明显拜登赢得了一场非常令人信服的胜利。”b9p世界播


Biden currently has an Electoral College lead of 290-232. But that does not include electors from Georgia, where Biden leads Trump by 0.3 percentage points as officials conduct a hand tally. The AP has not called the race, but if Biden's lead holds he will win the Electoral College on 306-232 vote — the identical margin Trump won in 2016. Back then Trump described it as a “landslide.” b9p世界播

拜登目前以290比232领先选举人团。但这并不包括佐治亚州的选举人,在那里,拜登在官员进行手工计票时领先特朗普0.3个百分点。美联社还没有宣布竞选结果,但如果拜登的领先优势保持不变,他将以306票对232票赢得选举人团-这与特朗普在2016年赢得的票数相同。当时特朗普形容这是一场“压倒性胜利”。b9p世界播


Trump sealed that victory with 77,000 votes across three battleground states, while Biden's margin would be slightly narrower — about 45,000 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. b9p世界播

特朗普在三个关键州以7.7万张选票锁定了胜利,而拜登的优势将略有缩小--在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州和威斯康星州大约有4.5万张选票。b9p世界播


That slimmer win, however, is still decisive by election law standards, notes Rick Hasen, a professor at the University of Irvine and an expert on voting. b9p世界播

然而,欧文大学(University Of Irvine)教授、投票专家里克·哈森(Rick Hasen)指出,按照选举法的标准,这场微弱的胜利仍然是决定性的。b9p世界播


While Biden's margins in states like Arizona and Wisconsin seem small — between 12,000 and 20,000 votes — those races aren't nearly narrow enough to be considered likely to flip through a recount or lawsuits. Recounts typically shift total votes by only a few hundred votes. In 2000, the Florida recount and legal battle for the White House was prompted by a 537-vote margin. b9p世界播

虽然拜登在亚利桑那州和威斯康星州等州的得票率似乎很小--在12000到20000张选票之间--但这些竞选的差距还不够小,不足以被认为有可能通过重新计票或诉讼。重新计票通常只会使总选票减少几百张选票。2000年,佛罗里达州的重新计票和入主白宫的法律战以537票的优势引发。b9p世界播


“If you're talking about it being close enough to be within what those of us in the field call the margin of litigation, this is not within the margin of litigation,” Hasen said. b9p世界播

哈森说:“如果你说的是足够接近到我们这些业内人士所说的诉讼范围内,那这就不在诉讼范围之内。”b9p世界播


Timothy Naftali, a presidential historian at New York University, has compared Biden's still-growing popular vote and Electoral College margins to those of every winner of a presidential election since 1960. His finding: Biden's win was right in the middle — tighter than landslides like Barack Obama's 2008 win or Ronald Reagan's 1984 wipeout reelection, but broader than Trump's 2016 victory or either of George W. Bush's two wins. b9p世界播

纽约大学(New York University)总统历史学家蒂莫西·纳夫塔利(Timothy Naftali)将拜登不断增长的普选和选举人票优势与1960年以来每一次总统选举的获胜者进行了比较。他的发现是:拜登的胜利恰好处于中间--比巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)2008年获胜或罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)1984年大获全胜等滑坡要紧,但比特朗普2016年的胜利或乔治·W·布什(George W.Bush)的两次胜利都要宽泛。b9p世界播


The closest analogy was Obama's reelection, which he won by virtually the same margin as Biden has now. b9p世界播

最接近的类比是奥巴马的连任,他几乎以与拜登现在相同的优势赢得了连任。b9p世界播


“Did anyone think 2012 was a narrow victory? No," Naftali said. b9p世界播

“有没有人认为2012年是一场险胜?不,“纳夫塔利说。b9p世界播


Despite that, Trump and his allies are continuing to try to stop certification of the election, in a longshot attempt to deny states the ability to seat electors supporting Biden. These efforts are very unlikely to succeed, but they reached a new pitch this week when two Republican members of the board of canvassers in Michigan's largest county Tuesday night managed to block certification of the votes there. They allowed certification to proceed after an outcry, but it was a sign of how deeply Trump's baseless claims of mass fraud have permeated. b9p世界播

尽管如此,特朗普和他的盟友仍在继续试图阻止对选举的认证,试图剥夺各州让支持拜登的选举人就座的能力。这些努力不太可能成功,但本周达到了一个新的高度,密歇根州最大县的两名共和党拉票委员会成员星期二晚上设法阻止了那里的选票认证。他们允许认证在遭到强烈抗议后继续进行,但这表明特朗普关于大规模欺诈的毫无根据的指控已经渗透得有多深。b9p世界播


In fact, argued Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who tracks vote counts for the U.S. Elections Project, the relatively narrow Biden wins in battleground states tell a different story than the one the president is pushing. b9p世界播

事实上,追踪美国选举项目计票情况的佛罗里达大学教授迈克尔·麦克唐纳(Michael McDonald)认为,拜登在关键州相对微弱的胜利讲述了一个与总统正在推动的不同的故事。b9p世界播


Democrats have worried that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College tallies is growing as Democratic voters cluster on the coasts and outside of battleground states. That dynamic could make it difficult for Democrats to win congressional races, creating a lasting disadvantage when it comes to advancing policies. b9p世界播

民主党人担心,随着民主党选民聚集在海岸和关键州以外,普选和选举人团票数之间的差距正在扩大。这种动态可能会让民主党人很难赢得国会竞选,从而在推进政策方面造成持久的劣势。b9p世界播


“If there's anything in the data here, it reveals how the system is stacked against the Democrats, not stacked against Trump,” McDonald said. b9p世界播

麦克唐纳说:“如果这里的数据有什么不同的话,那就是它揭示了这个系统是如何对民主党不利的,而不是对特朗普不利的。”b9p世界播

© 2016 世界播 www.shijiebobao.com 中国互联网举报中心 京ICP证140141号 鄂ICP备18018000号-1
违法和不良信息举报: