选举进行得如此顺利是有原因的

2020-11-19 08:02

There’s a Reason the Election Went So Smoothly 6Ei世界播

选举进行得如此顺利是有原因的6Ei世界播


暂无6Ei世界播


As the late Trump fan Charlie Daniels noted, Georgians are accustomed to repulsing visitors offering Mephistophelian bargains. So when Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a fellow Republican, to talk about the state’s signature-matching law, Raffensperger didn’t flinch. 6Ei世界播

正如已故的特朗普粉丝查理·丹尼尔斯(Charlie Daniels)指出的那样,格鲁吉亚人习惯于拒绝游客提供Mephistophelian便宜货。因此,当南卡罗来纳州参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)打电话给同为共和党人的佐治亚州国务卿布拉德·拉芬斯伯格(Brad Raffensperger),谈论该州的签名匹配法时,拉芬斯伯格并没有退缩。6Ei世界播


In an interview with The Washington Post, Raffensperger, who is Georgia’s top elections official, said that Graham asked whether he could discard all mail ballots in counties with higher rates of signature mismatch. Raffensperger believed Graham, a close ally of President Donald Trump, wanted him to throw out legal ballots, which Raffensperger can’t do, but which stunned him anyway. (Graham denied that he wanted to toss legal ballots, but acknowledged discussing the law. As to why he was nosing into a matter over which he has no jurisdiction, the senator said that the future of the country hangs in the balance, which makes no sense; even if Trump won Georgia, which he won’t, he’d lose the election.) 6Ei世界播

佐治亚州最高选举官员Raffensperger在接受华盛顿邮报采访时说,格雷厄姆问他是否可以在签名错配率较高的县丢弃所有邮寄选票。拉芬斯伯格认为,唐纳德·特朗普总统的亲密盟友格雷厄姆希望他抛出合法选票,这是拉芬斯伯格做不到的,但这让他感到震惊。(格雷厄姆否认他想投法律票,但承认讨论了这项法律。至于他为什么要插手一件他没有管辖权的事情,这位参议员说,国家的未来悬而未决,这是没有道理的;即使特朗普赢得佐治亚州(他不会赢),他也会输掉选举。)。6Ei世界播


Raffensperger is no liberal hero for ballot access. In his approach to the job, he has largely followed the model of his predecessor, current Governor Brian Kemp, whom progressives accuse of tilting the system to aid his victory over Democrat Stacey Abrams in 2018. Georgia Democrats have accused him of botching the 2020 primary and said that his investigations into absentee-ballot fraud, which is exceedingly rare, constitute “state-sponsored voter intimidation.” 6Ei世界播

拉芬斯伯格不是获得选票的自由派英雄。在他的工作方式上,他在很大程度上效仿了他的前任、现任州长布莱恩·坎普(Brian Kemp)的模式。进步人士指责坎普歪曲了体制,以帮助他在2018年战胜民主党人斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯(Stacey Abrams)。佐治亚州民主党人指责他在2020年的初选中搞砸了,并说他对缺席选票舞弊的调查非常罕见,这构成了“国家支持的选民恐吓”。6Ei世界播


David A. Graham: Signature-matching is the “witchcraft” of elections 6Ei世界播

大卫·A·格雷厄姆:签名匹配是选举的“巫术”6Ei世界播


Yet Raffensperger is one of the many elections officials around the country who have performed admirably in the face of great challenges—both logistical, from the pandemic, and political, from the president and his supporters—to produce an election that was surprisingly smooth and effective. Trump’s complaints about a rigged election are baseless and dangerous, because they undermine the legitimacy of democracy, but they are especially ironic because the American electoral system outperformed expectations despite the most challenging circumstances in recent memory. 6Ei世界播

然而,面对巨大的挑战--无论是来自疫情的后勤挑战,还是来自总统及其支持者的政治挑战--拉芬斯珀格是全国众多选举官员中的一员,他们的表现令人钦佩,从而产生了一场出人意料的顺利和有效的选举。特朗普对选举舞弊的抱怨是毫无根据和危险的,因为它们破坏了民主的合法性,但特别具有讽刺意味的是,尽管最近经历了记忆中最具挑战性的情况,但美国的选举制度超出了预期。6Ei世界播


For months, jittery election experts, pundits, and party officials fretted over the many ways that the election could go wrong. The pandemic meant not only that a record number of voters would cast ballots by mail, but also that officials couldn’t predict in-person turnout. Recruiting poll workers would be challenging. Many ballots might be lost because of signature problems or delays in the United States Postal Service. Foreign powers or other malign actors could try to meddle with the process. Supporters of candidates might try to intimidate voters from going to the polls, and there could be widespread civil unrest once the results were in. 6Ei世界播

几个月来,紧张不安的选举专家、权威人士和政党官员担心选举可能出现的许多问题。这场流行病不仅意味着将有创纪录数量的选民通过邮件投票,而且官员们也无法预测当面投票的人数。招募投票工作人员将是一项挑战。许多选票可能会因为签名问题或美国邮政服务的延误而丢失。外国势力或其他恶意行为者可能会试图干预这一过程。候选人的支持者可能会试图恐吓选民不让他们去投票,一旦结果出来,可能会出现大范围的内乱。6Ei世界播


The people offering the warnings had good reasons to be worried, especially after serious problems during the primaries. But in most of these cases, the problems either didn’t materialize or were less grave than they could have been. Although any valid vote that isn’t counted is an affront to democracy, the overall result was remarkably good. 6Ei世界播

发出警告的人有充分的理由担心,特别是在初选期间出现严重问题之后。但在大多数情况下,问题要么没有出现,要么没有那么严重。尽管任何不被统计的有效选票都是对民主的冒犯,但总体结果还是非常好的。6Ei世界播


“While every election has a misstep or two—a door to a polling location not opened on time, a printing error, equipment that malfunctions—this election has been a testament to the dedication and fortitude of election officials and the American voter,” Tammy Patrick, a senior adviser at the Democracy Fund and a member of the National Task Force on Election Crises, told me. “Hundreds of thousands who had never worked before worked the polls. Millions who had never voted before registered and voted in this election cycle.” 6Ei世界播

民主基金(Democratic Fund)高级顾问、全国选举危机特别工作组成员塔米·帕特里克(Tammy Patrick)告诉我,“虽然每一次选举都会有一两个失误--投票站的门没有按时打开,印刷错误,设备故障--但这次选举证明了选举官员和美国选民的奉献精神和毅力,”民主基金高级顾问、全国选举危机特别工作组成员塔米·帕特里克(Tammy Patrick)对我说。“数十万以前从未工作过的人参加了投票。数百万以前从未投票过的人在这次选举周期中登记并投票。“。6Ei世界播


The positive outcome was not an accident. It was the product of officials from the federal judiciary and executive branch down to precinct-level poll workers scrambling to patch together fixes for the system. Private donors cut big checks to assist them, a practice that would be horrifying if the system became dependent on it, but helped in this unusual circumstance. Most important, voters found ways to cast their ballots, producing the highest turnout in American history. 6Ei世界播

积极的结果不是偶然的。这是从联邦司法和行政部门到选区级投票工作人员争先恐后地拼凑系统修复措施的产物。私人捐赠者削减大额支票以帮助他们,如果系统变得依赖这种做法,这种做法将是可怕的,但在这种不寻常的情况下起到了帮助作用。最重要的是,选民们找到了投票的方式,创造了美国历史上最高的投票率。6Ei世界播


A good place to start is with mail ballots. Officials in states around the country rebuilt election systems on the fly, looking for ways to ensure that voters could cast ballots despite the threat of COVID-19. Although election experts applauded that, they also worried that voters unfamiliar with the process might inadvertently make errors that resulted in their ballots being rejected. In 2016, 1 percent of absentee votes were rejected, thanks to technicalities such as signature mismatching, the security method about which Graham inquired. 6Ei世界播

一个很好的开始是从邮寄选票开始。全国各州的官员在匆忙中重建了选举系统,想方设法确保选民可以不顾新冠肺炎的威胁投票。尽管选举专家对此表示赞赏,但他们也担心,不熟悉选举过程的选民可能会无意中犯下错误,导致他们的选票被拒绝。2016年,1%的缺席投票被拒绝,这要归功于签名不匹配等技术问题,格雷厄姆询问的安全方法。6Ei世界播


Final numbers will not be available for some time, but early indications are that some states (though not all) were rejecting a smaller percentage of absentee ballots than they have in the past. Other states also enacted new rules for “curing,” or correcting ballots; here, too, numbers on how many votes were saved are not yet available. 6Ei世界播

最终数字将在一段时间内公布,但初步迹象表明,一些州(尽管不是所有州)拒绝缺席选票的比例比过去要小。其他州也颁布了新的“治愈”或纠正选票的规则;在这里,也没有关于节省了多少选票的数字。6Ei世界播


A second concern was that the high volume of ballots might crash into obstruction by the Postal Service. New Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a longtime Republican donor, instituted a series of procedural changes that seemed to endanger prompt delivery of ballots. Overall delivery times were down. The USPS was no longer allowing ballots to be sent via the cheaper bulk mail rate. It also sent voters information about when to send ballots that election officials said was misleading. 6Ei世界播

第二个担忧是,大量选票可能会遇到邮政服务的阻挠。新任邮政署署长路易斯·德乔伊(Louis DeJoy)是共和党的长期捐赠者,他实施了一系列程序上的改变,似乎危及选票的迅速送达。总体送货时间有所缩短。美国邮政总局不再允许通过更便宜的批量邮寄方式寄送选票。它还向选民发送了何时发送选票的信息,选举官员称这些信息具有误导性。6Ei世界播


But outcry from the public, Congress, and federal judges seems to have gotten the USPS mostly in line. As early as mid-September, my colleague Russell Berman reported that the danger of mail problems affecting the election was much reduced. Federal district court Judge Emmet Sullivan ordered the USPS to sweep election centers for lingering ballots on Election Day, and he was furious when his order wasn’t followed everywhere, but postal officials said the sweep turned up only 13 ballots. A much larger number of ballots, 300,000, were reported as unscanned, but postal officials said that figure was misleading. Given the tight margins in some states, a small number of votes can make a big difference, and better numbers may emerge later, but for now, the impact seems relatively minor. 6Ei世界播

但公众、国会和联邦法官的强烈抗议似乎让美国邮政总局基本上保持了一致。早在9月中旬,我的同事拉塞尔·伯曼(Russell Berman)就报告说,邮件问题影响选举的危险大大降低。联邦地区法院法官埃米特·沙利文(Emmet Sullivan)命令美国邮政在选举日对选举中心进行清查,寻找挥之不去的选票。他对他的命令没有在所有地方得到遵守感到愤怒,但邮政官员表示,清查只发现了13张选票。据报道,没有扫描的选票数量要大得多,为30万张,但邮政官员表示,这个数字具有误导性。考虑到一些州的得票率很低,少量的选票可能会带来很大的不同,稍后可能会出现更好的数字,但就目前而言,影响似乎相对较小。6Ei世界播


In part because so many voters cast their ballots via mail or early in-person voting—about 100 million of an estimated 160 million total—there were fewer reports of long lines and interminable waits, familiar from past general elections and the spring’s primary fiascos, or of major attempts to threaten or intimidate voters. 6Ei世界播

这在一定程度上是因为有这么多选民通过邮寄或提前面对面投票--大约1.6亿选民总数中的1亿人--减少了有关排长队和没完没了的等待的报道,这在过去的大选和今年春天的初选中是常见的,或者是关于威胁或恐吓选民的重大企图。6Ei世界播


“No doubt, voters faced challenges on Election Day, including long lines in some communities, robocalls, and voter-intimidation complaints,” says Kristen Clarke, the president and executive director of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. “But the fact that over 100 million voters cast their ballots in advance of Election Day made the gravity of Tuesday’s problems and breadth of challenges lower in intensity.” 6Ei世界播

法律民权律师委员会主席兼执行董事克里斯汀·克拉克(Kristen Clarke)表示:“毫无疑问,选民在选举日面临挑战,包括在一些社区排长队,打机器人电话,以及对选民的恐吓投诉。”“但是,有1亿多选民在选举日之前投票,这一事实降低了星期二问题的严重性和挑战的广度。”6Ei世界播


David A. Graham: The damage of Trump’s voter-fraud allegations can’t be undone 6Ei世界播

大卫·A·格雷厄姆(David A.Graham):特朗普选民欺诈指控的损害无法挽回。6Ei世界播


It is more difficult to measure the effects of voter suppression of all kinds, including laws that make it hard to vote and campaigns that seek to simply depress voter enthusiasm. Many of these laws are built into the election system and create suppression problems in each cycle. States that declined to make it easier to vote absentee, enacted strict limitations related to witnesses, or banned practices such as curbside voting that make it easier to vote, added to the toll. The Lawyers’ Committee alone was involved in almost 40 suits over voting access. 6Ei世界播

更难衡量各种选民压制的影响,包括让投票变得困难的法律,以及试图简单地压低选民热情的竞选活动。这些法律中的许多都是选举制度的组成部分,在每个周期都会产生压制问题。那些拒绝让缺席投票变得更容易的州,对证人制定了严格的限制,或者禁止路边投票等让投票变得更容易的做法,都增加了损失。仅律师委员会就卷入了近40起关于投票权的诉讼。6Ei世界播


Given high partisan tensions in the country, instances of violence at demonstrations over the summer, and threats from various heavily armed groups, fears of widespread violence ran high in the days and weeks before the election. Businesses in many major cities boarded up windows in anticipation of riots. But despite a few unruly mobs of Trump supporters that menaced vote-counting locations, major unrest didn’t happen. This may have something to do with polarized geography: Urban centers were strongly Democratic, while Republicans were concentrated elsewhere. The peace may also owe something to the slow announcement of election results. Networks didn’t declare Joe Biden the winner until the Saturday after Election Day (and Trump still hasn’t accepted it), which helped to release tension slowly and turn the result into an anticlimax rather than a violent spark. 6Ei世界播

鉴于该国高度的党派紧张局势,夏季示威活动中发生的暴力事件,以及各种全副武装的团体的威胁,在选举前的几天和几周里,人们对大范围暴力的担忧很高。许多大城市的商家都用木板封住了窗户,以防发生骚乱。但是,尽管特朗普支持者中的几个暴徒威胁到了计票地点,但重大骚乱并未发生。这可能与地理两极分化有关:城市中心是强烈的民主党人,而共和党人则集中在其他地方。和平也可能在一定程度上归功于选举结果的缓慢公布。直到选举日后的周六,电视网才宣布乔·拜登获胜(特朗普至今仍未接受这一消息),这有助于慢慢释放紧张情绪,并将结果变成一种平淡的高潮,而不是暴力的火花。6Ei世界播


As state and local election officials worked to keep systems functioning on the ground, information-security officials at all levels were also working to defend the system. There is evidence, though shadowy, of some efforts to hack election systems in 2016 and 2018. This election seems not to have been marred by those problems, as a statement by a federal council overseeing security said. 6Ei世界播

在州和地方选举官员努力确保系统在当地正常运行的同时,各级信息安全官员也在努力捍卫该系统。虽然模糊,但有证据表明,有人试图侵入2016年和2018年的选举制度。正如监督安全的联邦委员会发表的一份声明所说,这次选举似乎没有受到这些问题的影响。6Ei世界播


“The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history. Right now, across the country, election officials are reviewing and double checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result,” the statement read. “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.” 6Ei世界播

“11月3日的选举是美国历史上最安全的一次选举。目前,全国各地的选举官员正在审查和复核整个选举过程,然后才能最终确定结果。“没有证据表明任何投票系统删除或丢失选票、更改选票或以任何方式受到损害。”6Ei世界播


David A. Graham: The “blue shift” will decide the election 6Ei世界播

大卫·A·格雷厄姆:“蓝移”将决定选举结果6Ei世界播


There are many reasons that the Trump campaign’s effort to fight the results in court has flopped (even as it convinces a disturbing number of GOP voters). There is no evidence for the president’s fraud claims; the president’s team has also been extremely sloppy in its lawyering. But another problem has been that Trump’s claims keep crashing into local Republican officials such as Raffensperger or Philadelphia City Commissioner Al Schmidt or any number of less prominent figures. Most of them probably voted for the president, and many of them support more restrictive laws for voting. But no one enjoys being accused of being negligent on the job by allowing fraud, especially when no evidence exists. 6Ei世界播

特朗普竞选团队在法庭上反对选举结果的努力失败的原因有很多(尽管它说服了数量令人不安的共和党选民)。没有证据支持总统的欺诈指控;总统的团队在律师工作上也非常草率。但另一个问题是,特朗普的主张不断冲击当地共和党官员,如拉芬斯伯格或费城市政专员阿尔·施密特或任何不太知名的人物。他们中的大多数人可能投票给总统,他们中的许多人支持更具限制性的投票法律。但没有人喜欢因为允许欺诈而被指责玩忽职守,特别是在没有证据的情况下。6Ei世界播


Raffensperger’s rejection of Graham’s meddling is yet another example of how America’s electoral system has basically worked this year. With the glaring exceptions of the outgoing president and his inner circle, officials have performed well. 6Ei世界播

Raffensperger拒绝格雷厄姆的干预是今年美国选举制度基本运作的又一个例子。除了即将离任的总统及其核心圈子的明显例外,官员们的表现都很好。6Ei世界播


“I am particularly proud of the states and leaders that listened to their election officials on what they needed to service their voters well in a global pandemic,” Patrick told me. “My hope is that the lessons learned in this election cycle will lead to long-term changes like these in the future.” 6Ei世界播

帕特里克告诉我:“我特别自豪的是,那些州和领导人听取了他们的选举官员的意见,告诉他们在全球流行病中,他们需要什么来更好地服务他们的选民。”“我希望在这个选举周期中吸取的教训能在未来带来类似的长期变化.”6Ei世界播


If they do, the combination of refined practices and a post-COVID-19 world could mean a real improvement in American elections—potentially at the same time that voter confidence in them gets shaky. 6Ei世界播

如果他们这样做了,精细化的做法和后新冠肺炎时代的世界相结合,可能意味着美国选举的真正改善--可能同时选民对选举的信心会动摇。6Ei世界播

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