将决定参议院选举的15场竞选,排名

2020-10-14 18:08

The 15 races that will decide the Senate, ranked 4Nw世界播

将决定参议院选举的15场竞选,排名4Nw世界播


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The Republican Party currently holds 53 U.S. Senate seats. To regain control of the Senate, Democrats need to net either three or four seats this November: three if their presidential nominee, Joe Biden, wins the White House; four if President Trump returns for a second term. (The sitting vice president breaks a 50-50 tie.) 4Nw世界播

共和党目前拥有53个美国参议院席位。为了重新控制参议院,民主党人需要在今年11月获得三到四个席位:如果他们的总统提名人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)赢得白宫,三个席位;如果特朗普总统再次连任,四个席位。(现任副总统打破了50-50的平局。)。4Nw世界播


Can Democrats do it? Or will the GOP keep power? Recently, things have been trending in Democrats’ direction. In South Carolina, challenger Jaime Harrison, propelled by nationwide progressive animosity toward incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham, just raised more money in one quarter ($57 million) than any Senate candidate in U.S. history; a few days later, the authoritative, nonpartisan race handicappers at the Cook Political Report moved three GOP seats — in Alaska, Texas and Georgia — a step toward the Democrats. 4Nw世界播

民主党人能做到吗?或者共和党会继续掌权?最近,事情一直在朝着民主党的方向发展。在南卡罗来纳州,挑战者詹姆·哈里森(Jaime Harrison)在全国范围内对现任参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)的进步敌意的推动下,刚刚在一个季度内筹集到比美国历史上任何一位参议院候选人都多的资金;几天后,库克政治报告中的权威、无党派种族障碍者移动了三个共和党席位-在阿拉斯加、德克萨斯州和佐治亚州-向民主党人迈出了一步。4Nw世界播


With Republicans near certain to gain one Democratic seat (in Alabama) and Democrats highly favored to gain two Republican seats (in Colorado and Arizona), the fight for the Senate is going to come down to a handful of key races that are still too close to call. Here is Yahoo News’ ranking of the 15 seats that could change hands on Election Day — ordered from most to least likely to flip, with Republican-held seats noted in red and Democratic-held seats in blue. 4Nw世界播

由于共和党人几乎肯定会获得一个民主党席位(在阿拉巴马州),民主党人非常有希望获得两个共和党席位(在科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州),参议院的争夺将归结为几个关键的竞选,这些竞争仍然势均力敌。以下是雅虎新闻(Yahoo News)对选举日可能易手的15个席位的排名-从最有可能易手到最不可能易手,共和党持有的席位以红色标示,民主党持有的席位以蓝色标示。4Nw世界播


1. Alabama: Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R) 4Nw世界播

1.阿拉巴马州:参议员道格·琼斯(D)对阵汤米·图贝维尔(右)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Doug Jones and Tommy Tuberville, Republican U.S. Senate nominee and former Auburn University football coach. (Alex Edelman/AFP via Getty Images; Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员道格·琼斯(Doug Jones)和汤米·图伯维尔(Tommy Tuberville),美国共和党参议院提名人,前奥本大学(Auburn University)橄榄球教练。(Alex Edelman/法新社通过Getty Images;Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg通过Getty Images)4Nw世界播


This is one of the few Senate races where a Republican looks likely to pick up a seat held by Democrats; in a cycle with few certainties, Jones has been considered a long shot ever since the GOP managed to keep former state Judge Roy Moore from securing his party’s nomination. It was Moore, after all, who lost the seat in 2017 in a contest to replace former Sen. Jeff Sessions, allowing Jones to become the first Democrat in 20 years elected to the U.S. Senate from Alabama. Jones is a former U.S. attorney who prosecuted two of the Ku Klux Klan members responsible for the 1963 bombing of the 16th Street Baptist church in Birmingham, which killed four young girls and injured more than a dozen others. But Tuberville, a former college football coach who spent a decade leading Auburn, one of the state’s two great programs, emerged from the GOP primary this year ahead of Moore and then defeated Sessions himself in a runoff — with President Trump’s backing. 4Nw世界播

这是少数几个看起来共和党人可能获得民主党席位的参议院竞选之一;在一个几乎没有确定性的周期中,自从共和党设法阻止前州法官罗伊·摩尔(Roy Moore)获得该党提名以来,琼斯一直被认为希望渺茫。毕竟,是摩尔在2017年取代前参议员杰夫·塞申斯(Jeff Sessions)的竞争中失去了席位,使琼斯成为20年来第一位从阿拉巴马州当选为美国参议员的民主党人。琼斯是一名前美国律师,他起诉了两名三K党成员,他们对1963年伯明翰第16街浸信会教堂爆炸事件负有责任,那次爆炸造成4名年轻女孩死亡,12多人受伤。但塔伯维尔曾是一名大学橄榄球教练,曾在该州两大项目之一的奥本(Auburn)项目上领导了十年,他在今年的共和党初选中领先于摩尔,然后在决选中击败了塞申斯-在特朗普总统的支持下。4Nw世界播


2. Colorado: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D) 4Nw世界播

2.科罗拉多州:参议员科里·加德纳(Cory Gardner)vs约翰·希肯卢珀(John Hickenlooper)(D)。4Nw世界播


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Republican Sen. Cory Gardner and Democratic former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. (Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images (2)) 4Nw世界播

共和党参议员科里·加德纳(Cory Gardner)和民主党前科罗拉多州州长约翰·希肯卢珀(John Hickenlooper)。(张HYoung/MediaNews Group/丹佛邮报通过Getty Images(2))4Nw世界播


Gardner was elected during the Republican wave of 2014 and proceeded to watch the purple state he represented shift to the left enough that his prospects for reelection are perhaps the grimmest of any GOP incumbent. Gardner defeated incumbent Mark Udall by 2 points in 2014, and since then the state has gone blue by increasingly comfortable margins, with Democrats winning the 2016 presidential and Senate contests by 5-plus points and the 2016 gubernatorial race by 10. Gardner is now a senator who votes with Trump 90 percent of the time trying to win reelection in a state Biden could win by double digits. 4Nw世界播

加德纳在2014年共和党浪潮期间当选,随后眼睁睁地看着他所代表的紫色州向左翼靠拢,以至于他连任的前景可能是共和党现任总统中最黯淡的。加德纳在2014年以2个百分点的优势击败了现任总统马克·尤德尔,自那以后,该州以越来越多的优势变得蓝色,民主党人以5个多点的优势赢得了2016年的总统和参议院竞选,2016年的州长竞选以10个百分点的优势获胜。加德纳现在是一名参议员,90%的时间都是投票支持特朗普,试图在拜登以两位数的优势赢得连任。4Nw世界播


The beneficiary of Colorado’s leftward lurch is Hickenlooper, the former governor and Denver mayor who ran in this cycle’s presidential primary as a moderate, insisting he had no interest in the Senate before jumping into the race. Hickenlooper’s campaign announced it raised $22 million in the third quarter of 2020, amid a flood of money that followed the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. After supporting Republicans’ blockade of Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland in 2016, Gardner has said he will vote to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the bench, likely sealing his fate in November. A SurveyUSA poll last week found Hickenlooper with a 9-point lead. 4Nw世界播

科罗拉多州左倾的受益者是希肯卢珀(Hickenlooper),这位前州长和丹佛市市长曾以温和派身份参加本轮总统初选,他坚称,在跳入竞选之前,他对参议院没有兴趣。希肯卢珀的竞选团队宣布,在最高法院大法官露丝·巴德·金斯伯格(Ruth Bader Ginsburg)去世后的大量资金中,他们在2020年第三季度筹集了2200万美元。在2016年支持共和党人封锁最高法院提名人梅里克·加兰德(Merrick Garland)后,加德纳表示,他将投票确认艾米·科尼·巴雷特(Amy Coney Barrett)为法官,可能会在11月决定他的命运。SurveyUSA上周的一项民意调查发现,希肯卢珀领先9个百分点。4Nw世界播


3. Arizona: Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D) 4Nw世界播

3.亚利桑那州:参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(右)对阵马克·凯利(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Martha McSally and Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. (Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty Images (2)) 4Nw世界播

参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)和民主党挑战者马克·凯利(Mark Kelly)。(Rob Schumacher-Pool/Getty Images(2))4Nw世界播


McSally has never won election to the Senate; she was appointed in 2019 to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain after running and losing to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema the year before. And now McSally, an accomplished Air Force veteran who was the first woman to fly a fighter jet in combat and to command an air squadron, is trailing Democrat Mark Kelly by a sizable margin. Kelly is a former astronaut whose wife, retired Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords, was shot in the head and nearly killed in 2011. The couple responded to the attack by becoming two of America’s leading advocates for limits on gun ownership. Kelly launched his campaign nearly two years ago with a powerful four-minute biographical video and has led McSally ever since. Meanwhile, McSally has tied herself closely to Trump but has lagged behind him in the polls — even as Trump trails Joe Biden in what is sure to be one of the most closely watched swing states on election night. 4Nw世界播

麦克萨利从未赢得过参议院选举;在前一年竞选并输给民主党人基尔斯滕·西内马(Kirsten Sinema)后,她于2019年被任命填补已故参议员约翰·麦凯恩(John McCain)的席位。麦克萨利是一位才华横溢的空军老兵,是第一位在战斗中驾驶战斗机并指挥空军中队的女性,现在她以相当大的差距落后于民主党人马克·凯利(Mark Kelly)。凯利是一名前宇航员,她的妻子,退休的民主党众议员加比·吉福兹(Gabby Giffords)在2011年头部中弹,险些丧生。这对夫妇作为对袭击的回应,成为美国限制枪支拥有权的两名主要倡导者。凯利在近两年前用一段强有力的四分钟传记视频启动了他的竞选活动,从那以后一直领导着麦克萨利。与此同时,麦克萨利与特朗普关系密切,但在民调中一直落后于他-尽管特朗普在选举之夜落后于乔·拜登(Joe Biden),而这个州肯定会是最受关注的摇摆州之一。4Nw世界播


4. North Carolina: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D) 4Nw世界播

4.北卡罗来纳州:参议员Thom Tillis(R)vs Cal Cunningham(D)4Nw世界播


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Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham. (Stefani Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images; Gerry Broome/AP) 4Nw世界播

参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(Thom Tillis)和民主党挑战者卡尔·坎宁安(Cal Cunningham)。(Stefani Reynolds-Pool/Getty Images;Gerry Broome/AP)4Nw世界播


Cunningham led Tillis all summer, and the Republican incumbent — a savvy politician who previously served as speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives — looked like he was in deep trouble, trailing by an average of 6 points. But then, in early October, Cunningham admitted he had engaged in an extramarital affair over the summer with the wife of a man he served alongside in the military. That revelationshook up the race and dented Cunningham’s image as a wholesome Iraq veteran and married father of two. One Democratic consultant, Patrick Dillon, called Cunningham’s conduct “astonishingly dumb,” and Tillis has run an ad that highlights the affair and ends with a shot of him and his wife walking hand in hand. 4Nw世界播

坎宁安整个夏天都在领导蒂利斯,这位共和党现任议员-一位精明的政治家,曾担任北卡罗来纳州众议院议长-看起来陷入了深深的麻烦,平均落后6个百分点。但随后,在10月初,坎宁安承认他在夏天与他在军队中一起服役的一名男子的妻子有婚外情。这一披露撼动了种族,削弱了坎宁安作为一名健康的伊拉克退伍军人和两个孩子的已婚父亲的形象。民主党顾问帕特里克·狄龙(Patrick Dillon)称坎宁安的行为“令人震惊地愚蠢”,蒂利斯投放了一则广告,突出了这一事件,并以他和妻子携手行走的镜头结束。4Nw世界播


Yet three polls released since the news broke all show Cunningham retaining his lead: 48 percent to 44 percent inanew surveyfrom Monmouth University; 49 percent to 39 percent in aSurveyUSA pollconducted for WRAL-TV; and 47 percent to 41 percent in apoll from Morning Consult.If Tillis (who is currently recovering from COVID-19) rides the scandal to a win, Cunningham’s personal failings could end up having enormous political consequences. But the North Carolina contest may ultimately prove that partisanship outweighs morality in the Age of Trump. 4Nw世界播

然而,消息传出后公布的三项民调都显示,坎宁安仍保持领先地位:蒙茅斯大学的最新调查显示,坎宁安的支持率为48%,蒙茅斯大学的最新调查显示,坎宁安的支持率为44%;为WAL-TV进行的美国民意调查中,坎宁安的支持率为49%,39%;晨间咨询的最新民调为47%,41%。如果蒂利斯(目前正在从新冠肺炎中恢复过来)赢得这场丑闻,坎宁安的个人失败可能最终会产生巨大的政治后果。但北卡罗来纳州的竞选可能最终证明,在特朗普时代,党派之争重于道德。4Nw世界播


5. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs Sara Gideon (D) 4Nw世界播

5.缅因州:参议员苏珊·柯林斯(右)vs萨拉·吉迪恩(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. (Alex Edelman-Pool/Getty Images; Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员苏珊·柯林斯和民主党挑战者萨拉·吉迪恩。(Alex Edelman-Pool/Getty Images;Brianna Soukup/Portland Press Herald通过Getty Images)4Nw世界播


In a state that refers to anyone not born within its borders as “from away,” Collins’s roots go back several generations, and she has represented Maine in the U.S. Senate for 24 years. But the Trump presidency may have broken her bond with her home state. Two moments in particular have served to crystallize frustration with Collins and compromise her reputation as an independent-minded centrist: one, her vote for Supreme Court Justice Neil Kavanaugh in 2018, and two, her vote against convicting Trump in the Senate impeachment trial earlier this year. When it has counted most, critics say, Collins has been more loyal to Trump than to the people of Maine. 4Nw世界播

在这个将任何不在其边界内出生的人称为“远离”的州,柯林斯的根可以追溯到几代人以前,她在美国参议院代表缅因州已经24年了。但特朗普的总统任期可能已经打破了她与家乡州的纽带。特别是两个时刻,体现了对柯林斯的失望,损害了她作为一个独立的中间派的声誉:一个是她在2018年投票给最高法院大法官尼尔·卡瓦诺(Neil Kavanaugh),另两个是她在今年早些时候的参议院弹劾审判中投票反对将特朗普定罪。批评人士说,在最重要的时候,柯林斯对特朗普的忠诚超过了对缅因州人民的忠诚。4Nw世界播


Collins’s Democratic challenger, Sara Gideon, is the speaker of Maine’s House of Representatives and 20 years Collins’s junior. Polling has shown Gideon with a consistent lead, though that has shrunk in recent days. Collins is trying to make the race less about national politics and more about the ways she helps procure federal assistance for the state, most recently in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Collins has also criticized Trump’s decision to try to fill the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg so close to the election and announced she will vote against his nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett. But it may not be enough to save her. 4Nw世界播

柯林斯的民主党挑战者萨拉·吉迪恩(Sara Gideon)是缅因州众议院议长,比柯林斯小20岁。民调显示,吉迪恩持续领先,尽管最近几天这种领先优势有所缩小。柯林斯正试图让这场竞选不再是关于国家政治,而是更多地关于她帮助该州获得联邦援助的方式,最近的一次是为了应对新冠肺炎疫情。柯林斯还批评了特朗普试图填补因露丝·巴德·金斯伯格(Ruth Bader Ginsburg)去世而空出的最高法院席位的决定,并宣布她将投票反对他的提名人艾米·科尼·巴雷特(Amy Coney Barrett)法官。但这可能不足以拯救她。4Nw世界播


6. Iowa: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield(D) 4Nw世界播

6.爱荷华州:参议员Joni Ernst(R)vs Theresa Greenfield(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Joni Ernst and Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield. (Patrick Semansky/AFP via Getty Images; Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员乔尼·恩斯特(Joni Ernst)和民主党挑战者特蕾莎·格林菲尔德(Theresa Greenfield)。(Patrick Semansky/法新社通过Getty Images;Caroline Brehman/CQ CQ通过Getty Images点名)4Nw世界播


Trump won Iowa by more than 8 points in 2016 and is still running roughly even with Biden in the state. But Ernst, a first-term senator whose debut 2014 campaign ad touted her hog-castrating skills and promised that her comfort with cutting pork would “make ’em squeal” in Washington, has trailed challenger Greenfield in every poll since the start of September. 4Nw世界播

特朗普在2016年以超过8个百分点的优势赢得爱荷华州,目前在该州的支持率仍与拜登大致持平。但自9月初以来,在每一次民调中,首次担任参议员的恩斯特(Ernst)在每一次民调中都落后于挑战者格林菲尔德。自9月初以来,恩斯特在2014年的首个竞选广告中吹嘘她的去势技巧,并承诺她切猪肉的舒适感会让华盛顿的人“让他们尖叫”。4Nw世界播


Speaking at August’s Republican National Convention, Ernst tied herself closely to Trump as a fellow friend of “flyover country” who would stop “liberal coastal elites and radical environmentalists” from transforming the United States into a place “where farmers are punished, jobs are destroyed and taxes crush the middle class.” 4Nw世界播

在8月份的共和党全国代表大会上发表讲话时,恩斯特将自己与特朗普紧密联系在一起,称自己是“天桥之国”的伙伴朋友,后者将阻止“自由派沿海精英和激进环保主义者”将美国转变为一个“农民受到惩罚、就业机会被摧毁、税收压垮中产阶级”的地方。4Nw世界播


The problem is that Greenfield’s message seems to be resonating, with its bread-and-butter promises to preserve health insurance coverage for people with preexisting conditions and protect Social Security from privatization, which Ernst hasn’t ruled out. As Greenfield frequently notes on the trail, her husband died when she was pregnant with their second child, forcing her to rely on Social Security survivor benefits to make ends meet. In response, Ernst has argued that an influx of out-of-state donations for Greenfield, a real estate executive, indicate that she is beholden to “liberal extremists.” 4Nw世界播

问题是,格林菲尔德的信息似乎引起了共鸣,它的基本承诺是为有既往疾病的人保留医疗保险覆盖范围,并保护社会保障免受私有化的影响,而安永并未排除这一可能性。正如格林菲尔德在旅途中经常提到的那样,她的丈夫在她怀上第二个孩子时去世,迫使她依靠社会保障遗属福利来维持收支平衡。作为回应,安永辩称,对房地产高管格林菲尔德(Greenfield)的州外捐款涌入表明,她受制于“自由派极端分子”。4Nw世界播


7. Montana: Sen. Steve Daines (R) vs. Gov. Steve Bullock (D) 4Nw世界播

7.蒙大拿州:参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯(R)对阵州长史蒂夫·布洛克(D)4Nw世界播


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Sen. Steve Daines and Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. (Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images; William Campbell/Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯(Steve Daines)和蒙大拿州民主党州长史蒂夫·布洛克(Steve Bullock)。(Cheriss May/NurPhoto通过Getty Images;William Campbell/Getty Images)4Nw世界播


Montana shouldn’t be competitive. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in Big Sky Country, and Daines, the Republican incumbent, has solid approval ratings. But the race immediately became a toss-up when national Democrats finally persuaded a reluctant Bullock, the state’s Democratic governor, to join the fray earlier this year. At the time, Bullock was fresh off a failed presidential bid that saw his middle-of-the-road, middle-of-the-country politics falling flat in a crowded Democratic primary. Yet Bullock’s brand is a good fit for populist, independent-minded Montana, and voters there have largely approved of his handling of the pandemic and his health-care-centric message. In a sign of how crucial the contest is, spending so far has topped $75 million — a record in Montana. 4Nw世界播

蒙大拿州不应该有竞争力。2016年,特朗普在大天空之乡以超过20个百分点的优势击败希拉里,共和党现任总统戴恩斯的支持率稳固。但今年早些时候,当全国民主党人最终说服不情愿的该州民主党州长布洛克加入竞争时,这场竞选立即变得摇摆不定。当时,布洛克刚刚参加完一场失败的总统竞选,他的中间路线、中间路线的政治在拥挤的民主党初选中落败。然而,布洛克的品牌非常适合民粹主义的、思想独立的蒙大拿州,那里的选民基本上赞成他对流行病的处理和他以医疗保健为中心的信息。到目前为止,这场比赛的支出已经超过7500万美元-创下了蒙大拿州的纪录,这一迹象表明了这场比赛的重要性。4Nw世界播


General goodwill may not be enough to put Bullock over the top in a crimson state during a presidential election year, and Daines’s strategy — to follow Trump’s playbook and paint his moderate opponent as a puppet of out-of-state donors and “liberal mobs” hell-bent on defunding the police — could carry the day. But if Biden rides a national wave to the White House, Montana could tip the Senate in the Democrats’ favor. Of all this year’s red state races, it may be the most ripe for an upset. 4Nw世界播

在总统大选年,普遍的善意可能不足以让布洛克在一个深红色的州占据上风,而戴恩斯的策略-效仿特朗普的策略,将他的温和派对手描绘成州外捐赠者的傀儡,以及一心想要取消警察资金的“自由派暴徒”-可能会占上风。但如果拜登乘着全国浪潮入主白宫,蒙大拿州可能会让参议院倾向于民主党。在今年所有红色州的竞选中,它可能是最适合颠覆的。4Nw世界播


8. Georgia: Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Rep. Doug Collins (R) vs. Raphael Warnock (D) 4Nw世界播

8.佐治亚州:参议员凯利·卢弗勒(R)诉众议员道格·柯林斯(R)诉拉斐尔·沃诺克(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Kelly Loeffler and challengers Doug Collins and Raphael Warnock. (Lynsey Weatherspoon/Getty Images; Erin Scott-Pool via Getty Images; Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员凯利·卢弗勒和挑战者道格·柯林斯和拉斐尔·沃诺克。(Lynsey Weatherspoon/Getty Images;Erin Scott-Pool Via Getty Images;Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg Via Getty Images)4Nw世界播


Warnock is a Christian minister who is the pastor of the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, the congregation of Martin Luther King Sr. and Jr. He leads a crowded field, but he has yet to approach 50 percent in the polling — so this race, a special election to fill the seat vacated when former Sen. Johnny Isakson retired at the end of 2019, is likely headed for a Jan. 5 runoff between the top two finishers. (That’s unless Biden beats Trump by a historic margin in November and wins Georgia or comes close. In that scenario, Biden’s coattails could theoretically pull Warnock past the 50 percent mark.) 4Nw世界播

沃诺克是一名基督教牧师,是亚特兰大历史悠久的埃比尼泽浸信会教堂(Ebenzer Baptist Church)的牧师,该教堂是老马丁·路德·金和小马丁·路德·金的会众。他在一个拥挤的领域领先,但他在民调中的支持率尚未接近50%-因此,这场特别选举很可能会在1月5日举行,在前两名获胜者之间进行决选。这场选举是为了填补前参议员约翰尼·伊萨克森(Johnny Isakson)在2019年底退休后空出的席位。(除非拜登在11月以历史性的优势击败特朗普,赢得佐治亚州,或者接近。在这种情况下,理论上拜登的燕尾服可能会让沃诺克超过50%的关口。)。4Nw世界播


A runoff would pit Warnock against whoever wins the two-way Republican contest between Loeffler and Collins. Loeffler holds only a narrow lead over Collins, despite boasting the support of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. That’s because Loeffler is a political newcomer whose conservative bona fides are in question, given her background as a wealthy businesswoman who has occasionally donated money to Democrats. Collins, meanwhile, has endeared himself to grassroots Republicans in Georgia and built something of a national profile by defending Trump during last year’s House impeachment trial. Nathan Deal, the Republican governor of Georgia who preceded Kemp, has endorsed Collins. Unusually, Trump has remained on the sidelines. 4Nw世界播

决选将使沃诺克与赢得勒弗勒和柯林斯之间的共和党双向竞争的人展开较量。尽管拥有佐治亚州州长布莱恩·坎普(Brian Kemp)和参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)的支持,但勒弗勒仅以微弱优势领先于柯林斯。这是因为勒弗勒是一名政治新人,考虑到她作为一名偶尔向民主党捐款的富有女商人的背景,她的保守派诚意值得怀疑。与此同时,柯林斯在佐治亚州的草根共和党人中很受欢迎,并在去年的众议院弹劾审判中为特朗普辩护,建立了某种全国形象。坎普之前的佐治亚州共和党州长内森·迪尔(Nathan Deal)支持柯林斯。不同寻常的是,特朗普一直持观望态度。4Nw世界播


9. Georgia: Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D) 4Nw世界播

9.佐治亚州:参议员大卫·珀杜(右)诉乔恩·奥斯索夫(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images;Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员大卫·珀杜(David Perdue)和民主党挑战者乔恩·奥斯索夫(Jon Ossoff)。(Chip Somodevila/Getty Images;Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg Via Getty Images)4Nw世界播


Perdue, a former corporate executive, is seeking reelection to a second term. He’s been a loyal Trump vote in the Senate and has kept a relatively low profile. Ossoff ran for a U.S. House seat in 2017 and attracted national attention as the race galvanized Democratic opposition to Trump, but he still lost by 3 points to Republican Karen Handel. Perdue leads Ossoff by an average of 3 points and is favored to win. Yet the closeness of the race demonstrates the degree to which the political winds are boosting Democrats this year — and could potentially make for an upset on Nov. 3. 4Nw世界播

前企业高管珀杜正在寻求连任。他在参议院一直是特朗普的忠实支持者,并保持相对低调。奥斯索夫在2017年竞选美国众议院席位,随着竞选引发民主党人对特朗普的反对,他吸引了全国的关注,但他仍然以3个百分点的差距输给了共和党人卡伦·亨德尔(Karen Handel)。珀杜平均领先奥斯索夫3分被看好夺冠。然而,势均力敌的竞选表明,今年的政治风向对民主党人的提振程度-可能会导致11月3日的失利。4Nw世界播


10. Kansas: Rep. Roger Marshall (R) vs. State Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) 4Nw世界播

10.堪萨斯州:众议员罗杰·马歇尔(R)vs州参议员芭芭拉·博利耶(D)。4Nw世界播


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Republican Rep. Roger Marshall and his Democratic challenger, state Sen. Barbara Bollier. (Mark Reinstein/Corbis via Getty Images; John Hanna/AP Photo) 4Nw世界播

共和党众议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)和他的民主党挑战者、州参议员芭芭拉·博利耶(Barbara Bollier)。(Mark Reinstein/Corbis通过Getty Images;John Hanna/美联社照片)4Nw世界播


The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas? 1932. But Bollier could make history in November. Despite its hard-core conservative reputation, Kansas has been inching away from the GOP in the wake of Gov. Sam Brownback’s disastrous 2012-2013 Kansas tax cut experiment, which blew a $900 million hole in the state budget and forced schools to shorten their schedules due to staffing shortages. In 2018, the Sunflower State elected a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, and the first openly gay Native American member of Congress, Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids. 4Nw世界播

上一次民主党人在堪萨斯州赢得美国参议院席位是在1932年。但博利耶可能会在11月创造历史。尽管堪萨斯州享有铁杆保守派的声誉,但在州长萨姆·布朗巴克(Sam Brownback)2012-2013年灾难性的堪萨斯州减税实验之后,堪萨斯州一直在慢慢远离共和党。该实验导致该州预算出现9亿美元的缺口,并因人员短缺迫使学校缩短时间表。2018年,向日葵州选举了民主党州长劳拉·凯利(Laura Kelly)和第一位公开同性恋身份的美国原住民国会议员、民主党众议员沙里斯·戴维斯(Sharice Davids)。4Nw世界播


The moderate Bollier, an anesthesiologist, state senator and former Republican who switched parties in 2018, is hoping to continue that Democratic winning streak by defeating Marshall, an anti-abortion establishment Republican who beat far-right Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach in the GOP primary. A recent internal Republican poll showed Marshall ahead by 4 points; Bollier’s own internal poll showed her ahead by 2 points. The public polls have been equally close. One sign that Republicans are worried: A few weeks after investing $5.2 million in Kansas, the Mitch McConnell-aligned super-PAC Senate Leadership Fund just shelled out another $7.2 million to bolster Marshall. Overall, Bollier has outraised her Republican rival by more than $5 million, according to the latest figures from OpenSecrets. 4Nw世界播

温和派博利耶是一名麻醉师、州参议员和2018年转党的前共和党人,他希望通过击败在共和党初选中击败极右翼堪萨斯州国务卿克里斯·科巴赫的反堕胎建制共和党人马歇尔,来延续民主党的连胜纪录。最近的一项共和党内部民调显示,马歇尔领先4个百分点;博利耶自己的内部民调显示,她领先2个百分点。民意调查也同样势均力敌。共和党人担心的一个迹象是:在堪萨斯州投资520万美元几周后,与米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)结盟的超级政治行动委员会参议院领导基金(Super-PAC Senate Leadership Fund)刚刚又支付了720万美元来支持马歇尔。根据OpenSecrets的最新数据,总体来说,Bollier已经超过了她的共和党竞争对手500多万美元。4Nw世界播


11. South Carolina: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D) 4Nw世界播

11.南卡罗来纳州:参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(R)vs詹姆·哈里森(D)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison. (Demetrius Freeman/AFP via Getty Images; Micah Green/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员林赛·格雷厄姆和民主党挑战者詹姆·哈里森。(Demetrius Freeman/法新社通过Getty Images;Micah Green/Bloomberg通过Getty Images)4Nw世界播


A seat that was initially seen as safe for Republicans officially became a toss-up last week, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Graham has represented the Palmetto State since 2003, and he cruised to reelection in 2014. But now he’s drawn a formidable foe. Harrison, who is Black, is a South Carolina native who attended Yale and Georgetown Law before serving as chairman of the state’s Democratic Party. He has proved to be a tremendous fundraiser, bringing in a record-breaking $57 million during the third quarter of 2020, according to his campaign. 4Nw世界播

根据无党派的库克政治报告,一个最初被视为共和党人安全的席位上周正式变得摇摆不定。格雷厄姆自2003年以来一直代表棕榈州,并在2014年顺利连任。但现在他招致了一个强大的敌人。哈里森是黑人,是南卡罗来纳州人,在担任该州民主党主席之前曾就读于耶鲁大学和乔治敦大学法学院。事实证明,他是一个巨大的筹款人,根据他的竞选活动,他在2020年第三季度获得了创纪录的5700万美元。4Nw世界播


Harrison is using that money to blanket the state with ads attacking Graham on a bill he wrote that would have repealed the Affordable Care Act while also hitting him on the Supreme Court. Graham was one of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s most vocal supporters, and is now leading the charge for Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s court confirmation in his role as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee after promising in 2018 he wouldn’t confirm any nominee, conservative or liberal, in an election year. Graham took to Fox News last month to plead for donations, and the Senate Leadership Fund, announced it was spending $10 million on radio and TV ads in the state in an attempt to get Graham over the finish line. 4Nw世界播

哈里森正在用这笔钱用广告攻击格雷厄姆写的一项法案,该法案本可以废除平价医疗法案,同时也在最高法院打击他。格雷厄姆是大法官布雷特·卡瓦诺(Brett Kavanaugh)最直言不讳的支持者之一,在2018年承诺不会在选举年确认任何提名人后,格雷厄姆现在带头要求法官艾米·科尼·巴雷特(Amy Coney Barrett)以参议院司法委员会主席的身份获得法院确认。格雷厄姆上个月在福克斯新闻(Fox News)上恳求捐款,参议院领导基金(Senate Leadance Fund)宣布将花费1000万美元在该州的广播和电视广告上,试图让格雷厄姆越过终点线。4Nw世界播


12. Michigan: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R) 4Nw世界播

12.密歇根州:参议员加里·彼得斯(D)vs约翰·詹姆斯(R)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Gary Peters and Republican challenger John James. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; johnjamesforsenate.com/) 4Nw世界播

参议员加里·彼得斯和共和党挑战者约翰·詹姆斯。(汤姆·威廉姆斯/CQ-点名公司通过Getty Images;johnjamesforsenate.com/)4Nw世界播


Other than former college football coach Tommy Tuberville’s run against Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama, James, who is Black, is seen as the Republican challenger with a chance to flip a Senate seat currently held by a Democrat. With Trump’s fortunes flagging in Michigan, that’s almost entirely because of James’s skills as a candidate. In 2018, James, a West Point grad and former Army helicopter pilot who now helms his family’s warehousing and logistics business in Detroit, ran against Michigan’s other Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow, and lost by less (6 points) than other Republicans on the ballot. Recent polls show him within 5 points of Peters, and the latest, from the respected New York Times/Siena College partnership, puts James within 1 — a virtual tie. 4Nw世界播

除了前大学橄榄球教练汤米·图伯维尔(Tommy Tuberville)在阿拉巴马州与参议员道格·琼斯(Doug Jones)的竞选外,黑人詹姆斯被视为共和党的挑战者,有机会颠覆目前由民主党人占据的参议院席位。随着特朗普在密歇根州的命运每况愈下,这几乎完全是因为詹姆斯作为候选人的技能。2018年,毕业于西点军校(West Point)、前陆军直升机飞行员詹姆斯(James)与密歇根州另一名民主党参议员黛比·斯塔贝诺(Debbie Stabenow)竞争,输掉的选票比其他共和党人少(6个百分点)。詹姆斯现在负责他家在底特律的仓储和物流业务。最近的民调显示,他与彼得斯的差距不到5个百分点,而来自备受尊敬的纽约时报/锡耶纳学院合作伙伴的最新民调显示,詹姆斯的支持率为1-几乎不相上下。4Nw世界播


Peters is an unexciting incumbent, and so far, the race has been marked by negativity on both sides. But James has outraised Peters by $3 million since the beginning of last year, and his ability to avoid getting pinned down on hot-button issues that could alienate moderates while also signaling loyalty to Trump — whose agenda James said in 2017 he supported “2,000 percent” — is keeping this buzzy Republican in the hunt. 4Nw世界播

彼得斯是一位平淡无奇的现任总统,到目前为止,这场竞选的特点是双方都持负面态度。但自去年年初以来,詹姆斯已经比彼得斯多出了300万美元,他避免被困在可能会疏远温和派的热点问题上,同时也表明对特朗普的忠诚-詹姆斯在2017年表示,他支持特朗普的议程-他的能力让这位热衷于追逐的共和党人继续参选。4Nw世界播


13. Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Dr. Al Gross (I) 4Nw世界播

13.阿拉斯加:参议员丹·沙利文(R)诉阿尔·格罗斯博士(I)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Dan Sullivan and independent challenger Al Gross. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images; Gross for Senate Campaign via AP) 4Nw世界播

参议员丹·沙利文和独立挑战者阿尔·格罗斯。(Al Drago/Bloomberg通过Getty Images;Gross通过美联社为参议院竞选活动)4Nw世界播


Polling has been sparse in the state, but the most recent round of surveys have shown incumbent Republican Sullivan with slim leads. The first-term senator, who previously served as the state’s attorney general and commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, is facing off against Gross, an orthopedic surgeon and commercial fisherman. Gross’s father was a Democratic attorney general in the 1970s, but he’s running as an independent backed by Democrats. (Alaska Democrats allow independents to participate in their primary in an effort to deflect some of the stigma the party has attracted in such a conservative state.) Gross has said he’ll caucus with Democrats if elected, mainly due to his dissatisfaction with how Republicans have handled health care and climate change, but he added that he’ll likely part ways with Democrats on guns and immigration. 4Nw世界播

该州的民调一直很稀少,但最新一轮调查显示,现任共和党人沙利文的领先优势微乎其微。这位第一任期的参议员之前曾担任该州总检察长和阿拉斯加自然资源部专员,目前正与整形外科医生和商业渔民格罗斯对决。格罗斯的父亲曾在20世纪70年代担任民主党司法部长,但他现在是以民主党人支持的无党派人士身份参选。(阿拉斯加民主党人允许无党派人士参加初选,以努力转移该党在这样一个保守的州招致的一些耻辱。)。格罗斯曾表示,如果当选,他将与民主党人举行党团会议,主要是因为他对共和党人处理医疗保健和气候变化的方式感到不满,但他补充说,他可能会在枪支和移民问题上与民主党人分道扬镳。4Nw世界播


The race was rocked last month when secretly recorded video leaked by an environmental group showed Tom Collier, the now-former CEO of a mining partnership looking to develop Alaska’s Pebble Mine, boasting about his influence over Sullivan, who has said he’s against the project opposed by environmentalists and fishermen. The race is also the only one this cycle to feature a bear-related controversy, as a Republican opposition research firm questioned whether Gross had really killed a grizzly bear while duck hunting in 1995. (A newly released report from the Alaska Department of Public Safety backs Gross’s claim.) Cook moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Tuesday, and national groups are starting to spend more in the state, two signs the race is tightening. 4Nw世界播

上个月,一家环保组织泄露的秘密录制的视频显示,寻求开发阿拉斯加鹅卵石矿的一家矿业合作伙伴的前首席执行官汤姆·科利尔(Tom Collier)吹嘘自己对沙利文的影响,沙利文曾表示,他反对这个遭到环保人士和渔民反对的项目,这引发了这场竞争。这场比赛也是本周期唯一一场与熊相关的争议,因为一家共和党反对派研究公司质疑格罗斯在1995年猎鸭时是否真的杀死了一只灰熊。(阿拉斯加公共安全部最新发布的报告支持葛罗斯的说法。)。库克周二将竞选从“可能的共和党人”转变为“倾向共和党人”,国家团体开始在该州投入更多资金,这两个迹象表明竞争正在趋紧.。4Nw世界播


14. Texas: Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D) 4Nw世界播

14.德克萨斯州:参议员约翰·科宁(R)诉M.J.黑格(D)4Nw世界播


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Sen. John Cornyn and Democratic challenger M.J. Hegar. (Bonnie Cash-Pool/Getty Images; Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员约翰·科宁(John Cornyn)和民主党挑战者M·J·黑格(M.J.Hegar)。(Bonnie Cash-Pool/Getty Images;Suzanne Cordeiro/法新社通过Getty Images)4Nw世界播


In perhaps the clearest sign that Cornyn may have some concerns about getting reelected, the Republican incumbent recently criticized Trump, admitting in an interview with the Houston Chronicle that the president had “let his guard down” during the coronavirus pandemic and created “confusion.” Cornyn is a three-term senator who has easily won his previous reelection bids, but he’s in a competitive race with Democrat Hegar, a former fighter pilot who narrowly lost a U.S. House race in 2018. In their only debate, Cornyn attempted to tie Hegar to Democratic leaders in Washington, saying she’s too liberal for Texas. 4Nw世界播

这位共和党现任总统最近批评特朗普,在接受《休斯顿纪事报》(Houston Chronicle)采访时承认,总统在冠状病毒大流行期间“放松了警惕”,制造了“混乱”,这或许是科宁可能对连任有些担忧的最明显迹象。科宁是一名连任三届的参议员,在之前的连任竞选中轻松获胜,但他正在与民主党人黑格尔(Hegar)竞争,黑格尔曾是一名战斗机飞行员,在2018年的美国众议院竞选中以微弱劣势落败。在他们唯一的一场辩论中,科宁试图将黑格尔与华盛顿的民主党领导人联系起来,称她对德克萨斯州来说太自由了。4Nw世界播


“Hi, I’m M.J. Hegar. I’m a Purple Heart combat veteran and a working mom of two, and I am your opponent,” Hegar told Cornyn in response. “I am the person you’re running against, as inconvenient as that is for you. It’s my ideas and my support in this state that you’re going to have to face in this election.” 4Nw世界播

“嗨,我是M.J.黑格。我是一名紫心勋章老兵,也是两个孩子的在职母亲,而我是你的对手,“黑格对康宁说。“我就是你的对手,尽管这对你来说很不方便。你们在这次选举中要面对的是我的想法和我在这个州的支持。“。4Nw世界播


Cornyn is likely safe, but Cook moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Tuesday, and the Biden campaign is starting to spend more on the state. Given that Cornyn’s Republican colleague Sen. Ted Cruz won reelection by just 2 points in 2018, he’s at least breaking a sweat after winning his 2014 race by 27 points. 4Nw世界播

科宁很可能是安全的,但库克在周二将竞选从“可能的共和党人”转移到了“瘦共和党人”,拜登竞选团队开始在该州投入更多资金。鉴于科宁的共和党同僚特德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)在2018年仅以2个百分点的优势赢得连任,在以27个百分点的优势赢得2014年竞选后,他至少流下了一身汗。4Nw世界播


15. Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D) 4Nw世界播

15.肯塔基州:参议员米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)诉艾米·麦格拉思(Amy McGrath)。4Nw世界播


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Sen. Mitch McConnell and Democratic challenger Amy McGrath. (Michael Clubb-Pool/Getty Images; Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 4Nw世界播

参议员米奇·麦康奈尔和民主党挑战者艾米·麦格拉思。(Michael Clubb-Pool/Getty Images;Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/Bloomberg通过Getty Images)4Nw世界播


Democrats have long fantasized about unseating the deeply unpopular GOP Senate majority leader, who singlehandedly stopped the Senate from even considering Barack Obama’s final Supreme Court nominee at the start of the 2016 election year — then did away with the judicial filibuster and is on the verge of installing a third Trump justice with just weeks to go until Election Day. For a time, McGrath, a former Marine fighter pilot, looked like the only candidate who could do it. But she emerged bruised from a tough primary battle against progressive state Rep. Charles Booker, and despite raising more cash than McConnell, she has trailed by double-digit margins in recent polls. Democrats might make McConnell Senate minority leader next year. But they’re unlikely to get rid of him entirely. 4Nw世界播

民主党人长期以来一直幻想将极不受欢迎的共和党参议院多数党领袖赶下台,后者在2016年大选年开始时一手阻止参议院考虑巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的最后一位最高法院提名人-然后废除了司法阻挠,在距离选举日只有几周的时候,特朗普即将任命第三位大法官。有一段时间,前海军陆战队战斗机飞行员麦格拉思看起来是唯一能做到这一点的候选人。但她在与进步派州众议员查尔斯·布克(Charles Booker)的艰难初选中受伤,尽管筹集的现金比麦康奈尔多,但在最近的民调中,她以两位数的优势落后。民主党人可能会在明年让麦康奈尔成为参议院少数党领袖。但他们不太可能完全除掉他。4Nw世界播

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