我们不能忽视的冲突

2020-10-14 11:34

The conflict we can't ignore jSM世界播

我们不能忽视的冲突jSM世界播


暂无jSM世界播

A man brings out his belongings after his house was shelled in Gyandzha, Azerbaijan. jSM世界播

阿塞拜疆Gyandzha,一名男子在他的房子被炮击后拿出了他的财物jSM世界播


While the world is preoccupied with the Covid-19 pandemic, the regional conflict in the remote separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh is threatening to escalate into a wider war on the doorsteps of Europe and Asia. Saturday's Russia-brokered ceasefire has already crumbled, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledging Monday that hostilities were continuing. jSM世界播

当全世界都在关注新冠肺炎疫情的时候,偏远的分离主义飞地纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫的地区冲突有升级为欧亚家门口更大范围战争的危险。周六由俄罗斯斡旋的停火协议已经破裂,俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫星期一承认敌对行动仍在继续。jSM世界播


The violence, which broke out two weeks ago, has killed more than 300 people and International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) president Peter Maurer told me that fighting is so intense even staff working close to the contact line had to take shelter frequently. jSM世界播

两周前爆发的暴力事件已造成300多人死亡,红十字国际委员会(ICRC)主席彼得·毛雷尔(Peter Maurer)告诉我,战斗如此激烈,以至于在联络线附近工作的工作人员不得不经常避难。jSM世界播


Nagorno-Karabakh is controlled by ethnic Armenians located in Azerbaijan and both Armenia and Azerbaijan, two former Soviet republics, have accused each other of violating the terms of the ceasefire. Given that the conflict can be traced back to the early 20th century, it is hard to imagine genuine peace taking hold without the resolution of long-standing grievances. jSM世界播

纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫由位于阿塞拜疆的亚美尼亚人控制,亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆这两个前苏联加盟共和国都指责对方违反了停火条款。鉴于这场冲突可以追溯到20世纪初,如果不解决长期存在的不满,很难想象真正的和平会站稳脚跟。jSM世界播


Already the agreement has been rejected by Turkey, an aspiring regional power and NATO member that has been backing Azerbaijan. Saturday, the Turkish foreign ministry said the ceasefire is "no substitute for a permanent solution" and that it will continue to stand with the Azerbaijan government in Baku. jSM世界播

土耳其已经拒绝了这项协议,土耳其是一个雄心勃勃的地区大国,也是一直支持阿塞拜疆的北约成员国。周六,土耳其外交部表示,停火协议“不能替代永久解决方案”,它将继续在巴库与阿塞拜疆政府站在一起。jSM世界播


Given the deep-seated hatred on both sides, strong domestic support and Turkey's unconditional backing, the situation could prompt Azerbaijan to use this as an opportunity to press for complete reclamation of the disputed region -- no matter the cost. jSM世界播

鉴于双方的根深蒂固的仇恨,强大的国内支持和土耳其的无条件支持,这种情况可能会促使阿塞拜疆以此为契机,不惜一切代价,推动完全重建这一有争议的地区。jSM世界播


It is unclear what exactly triggered the flare-up this summer, with Armenia and Azerbaijan both accusing each other of firing first. But there's no doubt that the conflict could have wider implications. The region is a crucial transit point for oil, gas and commerce that, if interrupted, could reverberate through the global economy - especially for the European Union, which will soon begin receiving gas from Azerbaijan. jSM世界播

目前尚不清楚是什么原因引发了今年夏天的冲突,亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆都指责对方先开火。但毫无疑问,这场冲突可能会产生更广泛的影响。该地区是石油、天然气和商业的关键中转站,如果中断,可能会在全球经济中产生反响-特别是对欧盟来说,欧盟很快就会开始从阿塞拜疆接收天然气。jSM世界播


An estimated 70,000 to 75,000 people -- about half of Karabakh's population -- has been displaced. The conflict requires careful handling at a time when Russia and Turkey -- already on opposite sides in proxy wars like Syria and Libya -- have become involved. jSM世界播

据估计,约有7万至7.5万人--约占卡拉巴赫人口的一半--流离失所。这场冲突需要谨慎处理,因为俄罗斯和土耳其--在叙利亚和利比亚等代理人战争中已经站在对立面--已经卷入其中。jSM世界播


Russia has a military base in Armenia, although it has supplied arms to both Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Turkey, which has strong economic and cultural ties with Azerbaijan and a fraught history with ethnic Armenians, is said to have transported paid mercenaries from Syria to Azerbaijan's line of contact in the fight over the 1,700-square-mile enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. (Turkey has denied this.) jSM世界播

俄罗斯在亚美尼亚有一个军事基地,尽管它向亚美尼亚人和阿塞拜疆人都提供了武器。土耳其与阿塞拜疆有着密切的经济和文化联系,与亚美尼亚人有着令人担忧的历史,据说在争夺1700平方英里的纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫飞地的战斗中,土耳其从叙利亚向阿塞拜疆的联络线运送了受薪雇佣军。(土耳其否认了这一点。)。jSM世界播


Now Iran may be poised to enter the fray. While President Hassan Rouhani said he hoped to "restore stability" to the region, the Iranian Border Guards commander said his forces have been placed in "necessary formation" after claiming that shells and rockets have landed on Iranian soil. jSM世界播

现在,伊朗可能准备加入这场争斗。虽然伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)表示,他希望“恢复该地区的稳定”,但伊朗边境警卫队指挥官表示,在声称炮弹和火箭弹落在伊朗领土上后,他的部队已进入“必要的编队”。jSM世界播


"What we are witnessing reflects other contexts in the world: an internationalization of conflicts which go far beyond only the parties which were traditionally involved," the ICRC's Maurer said in an interview. "This leads to a dangerous assumption in many conflicts. On the surface it appears they have slowed but underneath, the situation remains extremely fragile. It needs obviously very little for the situation to escalate, and these dynamics are difficult to stop." jSM世界播

红十字委员会的毛雷尔在接受采访时说:“我们看到的情况反映了世界上的其他背景:冲突的国际化远远超出了传统上涉及的各方。”“在许多冲突中,这导致了一种危险的假设。表面上看,冲突已经放缓,但实际上,局势仍然极其脆弱。显然,局势升级只需要很少的时间,这些动态很难停止。”jSM世界播


The Covid pandemic has exacerbated the situation, with travel restrictions making it harder to conduct important face-to-face spontaneous diplomacy. jSM世界播

Covid大流行加剧了这种情况,旅行限制使进行重要的面对面自发外交变得更加困难。jSM世界播


Maurer, whose organization has been active in Nagorno-Karabakh since the conflict started in 1992, said adjusting to a new normal is still a work in progress. "(The pandemic) has inhibited person-to-person contact and it has certainly inhibited the informality of diplomacy. ... The virtual diplomacy is still a work in progress -- it has not been yet the place or the format in which we can have trustful and confidential negotiations," said Maurer. jSM世界播

毛雷尔说,适应新常态仍在进行中。毛雷尔的组织自1992年冲突开始以来一直活跃在纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫。毛雷尔说:“(流行病)阻碍了人与人之间的接触,当然也抑制了外交的非正式性…虚拟外交仍在进行中-它还没有成为我们可以进行信任和保密谈判的地方或形式。”jSM世界播


All of this makes for a pretty grim picture mid-pandemic. A simmering conflict, like the one in Nagorno-Karabakh, risks becoming a conflagration that defies resolution and, like the virus, can rapidly reverberate around the globe -- with deadly consequences. jSM世界播

所有这些都构成了一幅相当严峻的大流行中期图景。一场酝酿中的冲突,比如纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫的冲突,有可能变成一场无法解决的大火,就像病毒一样,可以迅速在全球范围内产生反响--带来致命的后果。jSM世界播

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