我们正在关注特朗普的第七次破产

2020-10-14 10:06

We’re watching Trump’s 7th bankruptcy unfold vTN世界播

我们正在关注特朗普的第七次破产vTN世界播


As a businessman, Donald Trump ran 6 businesses that declared bankruptcy because they couldn’t pay their bills. As the president running for a second term, Trump is repeating some of the mistakes he made as a businessman and risking the downfall of yet another venture: his own political operation. vTN世界播

作为一名商人,唐纳德·特朗普经营着6家因无法支付账单而宣布破产的企业。随着总统竞选连任,特朗普正在重复他作为商人时所犯的一些错误,并冒着另一项事业失败的风险:他自己的政治运作。vTN世界播


In the 1980s, Trump was a swashbuckling real-estate investor who bet big on the rise of Atlantic City after New Jersey legalized gambling there. He acquired three casinos that by 1991 couldn’t pay their debts. The Taj Mahal declared bankruptcy in 1991, the Trump Plaza and the Trump Castle in 1992. Lenders restructured the debt rather than liquidate and Trump put his casino holdings into a new company that went bankrupt in 2004. The company that emerged from that restructuring declared bankruptcy in 2009. Trump’s 6th bankruptcy was the Plaza Hotel, which he bought in 1988. It went bankrupt by 1992. vTN世界播

上世纪80年代,特朗普是一个虚张声势的房地产投资者,在新泽西州将赌博合法化后,他在大西洋城的崛起上下了大赌注。他收购了三家赌场,到1991年这三家赌场都无力偿还债务。泰姬陵(Taj Mahal)于1991年宣布破产,特朗普广场(Trump Plaza)和特朗普城堡(Trump Castle)于1992年宣布破产。贷款人重组了债务,而不是清算,特朗普将他持有的赌场股份投入了一家新公司,该公司于2004年破产。从重组中脱颖而出的公司于2009年宣布破产。特朗普的第六次破产是他在1988年购买的广场酒店(Plaza Hotel)。它于1992年破产。vTN世界播


Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 paralleled the arrival of the brash upstart in Atlantic City more than 30 years earlier. But in the fourth year of his presidency, the Trump operation is once again reeling. Voters give him poor marks for handling the coronavirus crisis, underscored by an outbreak at the White House that infected Trump himself. Democrat Joe Biden is beating Trump is most swing states and an Election Day blowout is possible. Trump has suggested he won’t leave office if he loses, threatening a constitutional crisis and his own political legacy. vTN世界播

特朗普在2016年出人意料地获胜,与30多年前这位傲慢的新贵来到大西洋城的情况不谋而合。但在他担任总统的第四年,特朗普的行动再次令人头晕目眩。选民在处理冠状病毒危机方面给他打了很低的分,白宫爆发感染特朗普本人的疫情突显了这一点。民主党人乔·拜登(Joe Biden)击败了特朗普在大多数摇摆州,选举日的井喷是可能的。特朗普表示,如果他输了,他不会下台,这威胁到了宪法危机和他自己的政治遗产。vTN世界播


The lessons of Trump’s bankruptcies explain much of the Trump campaign’s current tumult. Here are 5 similarities: vTN世界播

特朗普破产的教训在很大程度上解释了特朗普竞选团队目前的动荡。以下是5个相似之处:vTN世界播


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Supporters of President Donald Trump wave flags as the Presidential motorcade carrying Trump arrives at the Trump International Hotel on September 12, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by ALEX EDELMAN/AFP via Getty Images) vTN世界播

2020年9月12日,当特朗普乘坐的总统车队抵达华盛顿特区特朗普国际酒店时,唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持者挥舞着旗帜。(亚历克斯·埃德尔曼摄/法新社通过Getty Images报道)vTN世界播


Trump loses focus. As a real-estate developer, Trump had a reputation as somebody who relished the dealmaking but not the everyday work of running the companies he bought. “In business, he would focus for about two or three days before the closing, and after that he would lose interest,” one former associate told the New York Times for a 2016 analysis of the Plaza Hotel bankruptcy. Trump himself has admitted this. “The fact is, you do feel invulnerable,” he told author Timothy O’Brien, author of the 2005 biography “Trump Nation.” “And then you have a tendency to take your eye off the ball.” vTN世界播

特朗普失去了关注点。作为一名房地产开发商,特朗普以喜欢交易,但不喜欢经营他收购的公司的日常工作而闻名。“在生意上,他会在关门前专注两三天,之后他就会失去兴趣,”一位前同事在2016年广场酒店破产分析中告诉“纽约时报”(New York Times)。特朗普本人也承认了这一点。他告诉2005年传记“特朗普之国”(Trump Nation)的作者蒂莫西·奥布莱恩(Timothy O‘Brien):“事实是,你确实觉得自己无懈可击。”“然后你就有把目光从球上移开的倾向。”vTN世界播


Winning the 2016 election was the biggest deal of Trump’s life, and he pursued it vigorously, with his “Make America Great Again” campaign that effectively targeted disaffected working-class voters who felt ripped off by corporate greed and offshoring. Trump’s 2020 campaign is vapid by comparison. There’s no unifying campaign slogan, no clear agenda for a second term, no tangible pitch to voters. Mostly, Trump just tries to bash Biden and scare voters into thinking Democrats will let criminals roam freely and tax everybody into poverty. It’s like Trump closed a megadeal in 2016 but can’t get excited about negotiating an extension in 2020. vTN世界播

赢得2016年大选是特朗普一生中最大的交易,他积极追求这一目标,他的“让美国再次伟大”运动有效地瞄准了心怀不满的工薪阶层选民,他们觉得自己被企业的贪婪和离岸所敲诈。相比之下,特朗普2020年的竞选活动乏善可陈。没有统一的竞选口号,没有明确的第二任期议程,没有向选民进行切实的宣传。在大多数情况下,特朗普只是试图猛烈抨击拜登,吓唬选民,让他们认为民主党人会让罪犯自由漫步,让每个人都陷入贫困。这就像特朗普在2016年达成了一项巨大的协议,但对2020年的延期谈判却无法感到兴奋。vTN世界播


He ignores warnings and overshoots. Trump got into trouble in Atlantic City because he didn’t know when to stop. Casinos were profitable where he bought his first two, the Plaza and the Castle. But as casinos proliferated in Atlantic City, the market got saturated and profit margins plunged. Some experts warned Trump was vastly overspending when he took on $820 million in debt to develop the Taj Mahal in the late 1980s. But Trump brushed them off and relied on his own rosy assumptions. The casino had cash-flow problems from the beginning and declared bankruptcy in July 1991, just 16 months after its lavish opening. Had Trump satisfied himself with the first two casinos, he might have had no casino bankruptcies in his career, instead of 5. vTN世界播

他无视警告和超调。特朗普在大西洋城惹上了麻烦,因为他不知道什么时候该停下来。赌场是有利可图的,他在那里买了他的前两个赌场,广场和城堡。但随着大西洋城赌场的激增,市场饱和,利润率暴跌。一些专家警告说,特朗普在20世纪80年代末背负了8.2亿美元的债务开发泰姬陵时,已经大幅超支。但特朗普对此不屑一顾,依靠自己的乐观假设。赌场从一开始就存在现金流问题,并于1991年7月宣布破产,也就是在奢华开业仅16个月后。如果特朗普对前两家赌场感到满意,他的职业生涯中可能没有赌场破产,而不是5家。vTN世界播


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The former Trump Taj Mahal is seen in Atlantic City, N.J., Monday, June 19, 2017. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) vTN世界播

2017年6月19日,周一,新泽西州大西洋城,前特朗普泰姬陵现身。(美联社摄影/Seth Venig)vTN世界播


Trump’s most unregulated excess as president has been his fear-mongering and vilification. Trump could have built on the coalition of working-class voters and libertarian businesspeople who elected him in 2016 by pursuing pragmatic policies that made him seem like a problem-solver. Instead, he has relentlessly bullied his critics and blamed immigrants, liberals, civil-rights activists and other groups for getting in his way. Most critically, Trump ignored public-health experts who urged aggressive action to halt the coronavirus spread, instead trying to persuade the public everything would be fine. Trump’s coalition now seems to be shrinking rather than expanding, as his support among women, seniors and other key voting blocs crumbles. vTN世界播

特朗普担任总统期间最不受监管的过度行为是他散布恐惧和诽谤。特朗普本可以在工人阶级选民和自由意志主义商人的联盟基础上再接再厉,他们在2016年通过推行务实的政策选出了他,这些政策让他看起来像是一个解决问题的人。相反,他无情地欺负批评他的人,并指责移民、自由主义者、民权活动家和其他团体阻碍了他。最关键的是,特朗普忽视了公共卫生专家,这些专家敦促采取积极行动阻止冠状病毒的传播,而是试图说服公众一切都会好起来的。随着特朗普在女性、老年人和其他关键投票集团中的支持率崩溃,特朗普的联盟现在似乎在缩小,而不是扩大。vTN世界播


Unkept promises. While seeking a license for the Taj Mahal in 1988, Trump told gaming officials he could lock in financing at the lowest possible “prime” rate, which was around 9% at the time. That helped him get the license, even though some officials had doubts about Trump. But Trump ended up paying a 14% rate, which contributed to the casino’s cash flow problems and its bankruptcy. Trump left hundreds of contractors unpaid as the casinos cratered, and some workers ultimately lost pensions. vTN世界播

没有兑现的诺言。在1988年为泰姬陵申请牌照时,特朗普告诉博彩业官员,他可以尽可能低的“优惠”利率锁定融资,当时的“优惠”利率约为9%。这帮助他获得了执照,尽管一些官员对特朗普持怀疑态度。但特朗普最终支付了14%的税率,这导致了赌场的现金流问题和破产。随着赌场的坍塌,特朗普让数百名承包商拿不到工资,一些工人最终失去了养老金。vTN世界播


As a candidate and then president, Trump promised to drain the swamp, release his tax returns, make Mexico pay for a border wall, revive the coal industry and vanquish the coronavirus by summer. Nope, nope, nope, nope and nope. As for a second term, Trump is promising 10 million new jobs, more tax cuts, a quick return to normal, and a redo on unfulfilled 2016 promises, such as a terrific new health care plan. Most politicians overpromise, but Trump does it on an almost outlandish scale. vTN世界播

作为一名候选人和后来的总统,特朗普承诺要排干沼泽,公布他的纳税申报单,让墨西哥支付修建边境墙的费用,重振煤炭行业,并在夏季之前击败冠状病毒。不,不。至于第二任期,特朗普承诺新增1000万个就业岗位,更多减税,迅速恢复正常,并重做2016年未兑现的承诺,比如一项非常棒的新医保计划。大多数政客都承诺过高,但特朗普的规模几乎是离奇的。vTN世界播


He holds his partners hostage. Trump’s lenders lost hundreds of millions of dollars on his bankruptcies and other underperforming businesses, but they’ve often written off the losses and extended Trump even more credit, because it’s better than liquidation. One former chairman of New Jersey’s casino commission described Trump as “too big to fail” in Atlantic City: Had his casinos stopped operating, it would have devastated the local economy. So lenders and gaming officials found ways to keep Trump in business, while reducing the control he had over those businesses so he couldn’t single-handedly get in over his head again. vTN世界播

他劫持了他的合伙人作为人质。特朗普的贷款人在他的破产和其他表现不佳的业务上损失了数亿美元,但他们经常注销这些损失,并向特朗普提供更多信贷,因为这比清算要好。新泽西州赌场委员会的一位前主席形容特朗普在大西洋城“太大而不能倒”:如果他的赌场停止运营,将摧毁当地经济。因此,贷款人和博彩官员找到了让特朗普继续经营业务的方法,同时减少了他对这些业务的控制,这样他就不会再次单枪匹马地进入自己的头脑。vTN世界播


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A sanitation worker cleans outside Trump International Hotel & Tower New York as the city continues Phase 4 of re-opening following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on August 16, 2020 in New York City. (Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images) vTN世界播

2020年8月16日,纽约特朗普国际酒店与大厦(Trump International Hotel&Tower)继续进行重新开放的第四阶段,一名环卫工人在打扫外面。此前,纽约市为减缓冠状病毒的传播而实施了限制措施。(Noam Galai摄/Getty Images摄)vTN世界播


Dozens of Republican senators and members of Congress are now tied to Trump in the political equivalent of a banking relationship. As Trump won control of the Republican party, fellow Republicans lent him their support in an all-or-nothing bid for political dominance. When Trump was winning, so were they. But if Trump goes down, some of those will sink with him. That could cost Republicans Senate elections in states such as Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina and give Democrats control of the Senate. If Biden wins the White House as well, Democrats would control the legislative and executive branches in a withering wipeout for Trump and his GOP allies. vTN世界播

数十名共和党参议员和国会议员现在与特朗普捆绑在一起,在政治上相当于银行关系。随着特朗普赢得对共和党的控制,共和党同僚给予他支持,不择手段地争夺政治主导地位。当特朗普获胜时,他们也是。但如果特朗普下台,其中一些将与他一起下沉。这可能会让共和党人失去亚利桑那州、科罗拉多州、爱荷华州、缅因州和北卡罗来纳州等州的参议院选举,并让民主党人控制参议院。如果拜登也入主白宫,民主党人将控制立法和行政部门,这将是特朗普和他的共和党盟友的一次惨败。vTN世界播


Trump always gets another chance. For his many stumbles, Trump has always recovered and found new ways to advance his interests. After struggling in the 1990s, Trump pivoted his business away from development projects toward licensing and management deals. His star rose higher than ever when he became a reality TV star on “The Apprentice,” even as his casino company went bust two more times. And of course he capitalized on that fame to run for president in 2016, vanquishing two political dynasties—the Bush and Clinton families—on his way to the White House. vTN世界播

特朗普总会有另一次机会。对于他的许多绊脚石,特朗普总是会恢复过来,并找到新的方式来推进他的利益。在20世纪90年代苦苦挣扎之后,特朗普将他的业务从开发项目转向许可和管理交易。当他成为“学徒”中的真人秀明星时,他的明星比以往任何时候都要高,尽管他的赌场公司又破产了两次。当然,他利用这一名声在2016年竞选总统,在入主白宫的路上击败了两个政治王朝-布什和克林顿家族。vTN世界播


So if Trump loses in 2020, and suffers the type of embarrassing setback he did with his casino or hotel failures, it certainly won’t be the end of Donald Trump. He has a remarkable gift for salesmanship that always seems to lead to another deal—sometimes with former partners who soured on him and then warmed again. In 2008, when Trump was struggling to sell condominiums in his new Chicago tower, he sued the lender, Deutsche Bank, to get out of some of the loan payments. The two parties settled after two years of legal wrangling, and in 2011 Deutsche Bank started lending Trump money again. Trump probably hopes 2020 voters are equally forgiving. vTN世界播

因此,如果特朗普在2020年输了,并遭受了他在赌场或酒店倒闭时遭遇的那种尴尬挫折,这肯定不会是唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的末日。他有非凡的销售天赋,似乎总是会导致另一笔交易-有时是与对他反感的前合伙人,然后又变得热情起来。2008年,当特朗普在他的新芝加哥大厦里艰难地出售公寓时,他起诉了贷款机构德意志银行(Deutsche Bank),要求其偿还部分贷款。经过两年的法律争论,双方达成和解,2011年,德意志银行再次开始借钱给特朗普。特朗普可能希望2020年的选民也能同样宽容。vTN世界播

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