特朗普竞选团队还有希望吗?

2020-10-14 08:06

Is There Still Hope for the Trump Campaign? MU1世界播

特朗普竞选团队还有希望吗?MU1世界播


暂无MU1世界播

Supporters of President Trump at a campaign rally in Sanford, Fla., Oct. 13. MU1世界播

10月13日,特朗普总统的支持者在佛罗里达州桑福德的竞选集会上MU1世界播


Editor’s note: In this Future View, students discuss whether the Trump campaign still has a path to victory. Next week we’ll ask, “If the Democrats win in November, why shouldn’t they pack the Supreme Court?” Students should click here to submit opinions of fewer than 250 words before Oct. 20. The best responses will be published that night. MU1世界播

编者按:在这篇未来观点中,学生们讨论特朗普竞选团队是否仍有一条通往胜利的道路。下周我们会问,“如果民主党在11月获胜,为什么他们不能挤满最高法院呢?”学生请于10月20日前点击此处提交不超过250字的意见。最好的回复将于当晚公布。MU1世界播


Running Out of Options MU1世界播

选择余地所剩无几。MU1世界播


President Trump’s management of the Covid-19 pandemic has been front and center in the campaign, and his hospitalization did nothing to remove it from the national spotlight. His response after his discharge struck a tone-deaf note for the millions of Americans who have lost a friend or loved one, and increasing case counts won’t improve public perception. MU1世界播

特朗普总统对新冠肺炎疫情的管理一直是竞选活动的前沿和中心,他的住院治疗并没有将它从全国的聚光灯下移开。他在退伍后的反应对数百万失去朋友或亲人的美国人来说是一种音盲,增加的案件数量不会改善公众的看法。MU1世界播


Amid this worsening crisis, the Trump campaign is desperately seeking a winning issue to carry it through the next three weeks to the election. The president’s actions over the past four years have alienated some staunch Republicans, and even traditionally winning Republican issues don’t seem to be moving the needle for him in the twilight of this campaign. “LAW & ORDER,” as the president would tweet it, didn’t do it. A judicial nomination hasn’t turned the tide, at least not yet. Too many Americans remember Republican senators’ remarks in 2016 and think confirmation hearings should wait. The economy, another issue on which Republicans often win, has been slow to recover and jobless claims mount as stimulus talks sputter. MU1世界播

在这场日益恶化的危机中,特朗普竞选团队正在拼命寻找一个获胜的问题,以使其度过未来三周的选举。总统过去四年的行动疏远了一些坚定的共和党人,即使是传统上获胜的共和党问题,在这场竞选的黄昏似乎也没有为他带来什么进展。正如总统在推特上写的那样,“法律和秩序”并没有做到这一点。法官提名并没有扭转局面,至少现在还没有。太多的美国人记得共和党参议员在2016年的讲话,认为确认听证会应该等一等。经济是共和党人经常获胜的另一个问题,随着刺激谈判的破裂,经济复苏缓慢,申领失业救济金人数上升。MU1世界播


A plausible road to victory for the president would have to include regaining public trust in his ability to promote prosperity and keep Americans safe. After eroding that trust for months, recapturing it in three weeks will be exceedingly difficult. It isn’t likely to happen. MU1世界播

对于总统来说,一条看似合理的胜利之路必须包括重新赢得公众对他促进繁荣和保护美国人安全能力的信任。在侵蚀了几个月的信任之后,在三周内重新夺回它将是极其困难的。这不太可能发生。MU1世界播


—Jacob Scherba, Duke University, biomedical engineering (M.D., Ph.D.) MU1世界播

-雅各布·谢尔巴(Jacob Scherba),杜克大学(Duke University)生物医学工程(医学博士)。MU1世界播


We’ve Been Here Before MU1世界播

我们以前来过这里。MU1世界播


Loath as many are to admit it, President Trump still has a viable path to 270 electoral votes. Four years ago, citing all the same polls that are cited today, nobody thought he would beat Hillary Clinton. We forget how quickly things can change. James Comey’s decision to reopen the investigation into Mrs. Clinton’s email server right before the election changed the race’s dynamics. An October surprise—maybe the results of U.S. Attorney John Durham’s probe into the Mueller investigation, or maybe something that we’d never anticipate—could have the same effect this year. MU1世界播

尽管许多人不愿承认这一点,但特朗普总统仍有一条可行的途径获得270张选举人票。四年前,引用了今天引用的所有相同的民调,没有人认为他会击败希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)。我们忘记了事情变化得有多快。詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)在大选前夕决定重新调查克林顿的电子邮件服务器,这改变了竞选的动态。10月份的惊喜-可能是美国检察官约翰·达勒姆(John Durham)对穆勒调查的结果,也可能是我们从未预料到的-今年可能会产生同样的效果。MU1世界播


Political commentators have dissected the first presidential debate to determine a winner, but they miss the mark. Gaining or losing votes in New York or Mississippi doesn’t matter. The winner is the candidate who swayed more voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and a few other states where the election will be decided. Again, the lesson of 2016 should be that the coastal pundit may despise what the undecided Midwesterner admires. MU1世界播

政治评论员已经剖析了第一场总统辩论,以确定胜利者,但他们没有切中要害。在纽约或密西西比州得失选票无关紧要。获胜者是在密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、威斯康星州和其他几个将决定选举结果的州影响更多选民的候选人。同样,2016年的教训应该是,沿海的专家可能会鄙视犹豫不决的中西部人钦佩的东西。MU1世界播


—Zev Benedek, Rutgers University-New Brunswick, actuarial science MU1世界播

-泽夫·贝内德克(Zev Benedek),罗格斯大学(Rutgers University)-新不伦瑞克精算学。MU1世界播


Reasons for Optimism MU1世界播

乐观的理由。MU1世界播


There is hope left for the Trump campaign. The president’s supporters are enthusiastic and will turn out to vote, happy to reward him for keeping his campaign promises on Nafta, taxes, jobs and the military. If it does come down to turnout, the innovative Trump ground game, doing more than ever before to reach voters digitally, gives the incumbent an edge. MU1世界播

特朗普竞选团队还有希望。总统的支持者热情高涨,将参加投票,乐于奖励他信守在北美自由贸易协定、税收、就业和军事等方面的竞选承诺。如果真的归结为投票率,创新的特朗普地面游戏比以往任何时候都更多地通过数字方式接触选民,给现任总统带来了优势。MU1世界播


The Democrats also remain vulnerable at their left flank. Americans aren’t sure whether their party rejects the destruction of life and property committed this summer and fall. Law and order still matter and on this issue the Trump campaign again has the advantage. As the stock market bounces back—and 401(k)s with it—President Trump may find the wind is in his sails heading into the election. MU1世界播

民主党在左翼也仍然脆弱不堪。美国人不确定他们的政党是否拒绝今年夏天和秋天对生命和财产的破坏。法律和秩序仍然很重要,在这个问题上,特朗普竞选团队再次占据优势。随着股市反弹--以及随之而来的401(K)计划--特朗普总统可能会发现,大选即将到来。MU1世界播


—Cassandra Farrell, George Mason University, history (Ph.D.) MU1世界播

-卡桑德拉·法雷尔(Cassandra Farrell),乔治梅森大学(George Mason University)历史学(博士)。MU1世界播


Step Out of the Spotlight MU1世界播

走出聚光灯下。MU1世界播


Although the odds are low, President Trump still has a chance to remain in the White House. It will come down to how he frames the race over the next few weeks, especially in the final debate, if it takes place. As conservative commentator Ben Shapiro has been saying for years, if the race is a referendum on Mr. Trump, the president will lose, but if it’s a referendum on Joe Biden and the Democrats, Mr. Trump wins. The president has to be willing to step out of the spotlight during the debates. He’ll have to give Mr. Biden the space to make mistakes and elaborate on his policies. Undecided voters will then be able to sit back and think about the next four years: Do they want to see their taxes go up and the Supreme Court packed? MU1世界播

虽然机率很低,但特朗普总统仍有机会留任白宫。这将归结于他如何在未来几周内框定竞选,特别是在最后一场辩论中,如果它发生的话。正如保守派评论员本·夏皮罗多年来一直说的那样,如果竞选是对特朗普的全民公投,总统就会输,但如果是对乔·拜登和民主党的全民公投,特朗普就会赢。总统必须愿意在辩论期间走出聚光灯下。他将不得不给拜登先生犯错误和详细阐述他的政策的空间。然后,犹豫不决的选民将能够坐下来思考未来四年:他们是否希望看到自己的税收增加,最高法院人满为患?MU1世界播


—Tim Whelan, State University of New York at Buffalo, medicine (M.D.) MU1世界播

-蒂姆·惠兰(Tim Whelan),纽约州立大学布法罗分校医学(M.D.)。MU1世界播


Click here to submit a response to next week’s Future View. MU1世界播

单击此处提交对下周“未来视图”的回应。MU1世界播


暂无MU1世界播

Potomac Watch: Vice President Mike Pence lays out an effective campaign formula: Point out the Biden-Harris radicalism and contrast it to a positive Trump agenda. MU1世界播

波托马克观察:副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)列出了一个有效的竞选方案:指出拜登-哈里斯(Biden-Harris)激进主义,并将其与特朗普的积极议程进行对比MU1世界播

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