参议院的竞技场正在向共和党人倒塌

2020-10-14 07:32

The Senate playing field is collapsing on Republicans 33K世界播

参议院的竞技场正在向共和党人倒塌33K世界播


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南卡罗来纳州林赛·格雷厄姆击败拉朱领先者VPX_0000000033K世界播


Three weeks before the 2020 election, the Republican Senate majority has never been in more peril. 33K世界播

距离2020年大选还有三周,占多数的共和党参议院面临着前所未有的危险。33K世界播


Not only do seats like Colorado and Arizona -- both currently held by Republican senators -- appear to be all but lost for the GOP in 2020, but seats once considered safe for the party now appear to be slipping into the competitive category because of the decidedly adverse national political environment. 33K世界播

不仅像科罗拉多州和亚利桑那州这样目前都由共和党参议员占据的席位在2020年似乎完全被共和党抢走了,而且曾经被认为对共和党来说是安全的席位现在似乎正在滑入竞争类别,因为绝对不利的全国政治环境。33K世界播


In CNN's latest Senate rankings, only two Democratic seats make our list of the 10 most vulnerable. As CNN's Simone Pathe wrote: 33K世界播

在CNN最新的参议院排名中,只有两个民主党席位进入了我们的10个最脆弱的席位名单。正如CNN的Simone Pathe所写的那样:33K世界播


"The first presidential debate, during which Trump refused to condemn White supremacy, didn't help down-ballot Republicans. And his diagnosis with Covid-19, followed by that of three GOP senators, may have only cemented the pandemic -- and Trump's poor handling of it -- in voters' minds, making it more difficult for Republicans to pivot to the economic message that they think is their best play for 2020." 33K世界播

“在第一场总统辩论中,特朗普拒绝谴责白人至上主义,这无助于共和党人的压倒性投票。他对新冠肺炎的诊断,以及随后的三名共和党参议员的诊断,可能只会巩固选民心中的流行病-以及特朗普对此的糟糕处理-,使得共和党人更难转向他们认为是2020年最好的经济信息。”33K世界播


On Tuesday morning, the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan handicapping tip sheet, moved three Republican senators into more vulnerable rankings: the seats of Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan and Texas Sen. John Cornyn from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" and the seat of Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler from "lean Republican" to "toss up." 33K世界播

周二上午,无党派障碍提示手册库克政治报告(Cook Political Report)将三名共和党参议员列入了更脆弱的排名:阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)和德克萨斯州参议员约翰·科宁(John Cornyn)的席位从“可能的共和党人”变成了“瘦共和党人”,佐治亚州参议员凯利·卢弗勒(Kelly Loeffler)的席位从“瘦共和党人”变成了“摇摆不定的人”。33K世界播


Those moves now mean that Cook rates 12 Republican seats as competitive, as compared to just two Democratic seats. To win the majority, Democrats need to net three seats (if Joe Biden is elected) or four (if Trump wins again). 33K世界播

这些举措现在意味着库克将12个共和党席位评为竞争性席位,而只有两个民主党席位。要赢得多数,民主党人需要获得三个席位(如果乔·拜登当选)或四个席位(如果特朗普再次获胜)。33K世界播


Wrote Cook's Senate editor Jessica Taylor of the current state of the Senate majority fight: 33K世界播

库克的参议院编辑杰西卡·泰勒(Jessica Taylor)在谈到参议院多数派斗争的现状时写道:33K世界播


"Three weeks from Election Day, Democrats are now the clear favorite to flip control of the Senate. A drop not only in President Trump's re-election numbers following his disastrous first debate performance and coronavirus diagnosis but also in subsequent downballot GOP surveys paint a dire picture for Republicans across the board at a very precarious time." 33K世界播

“距离选举日还有三周,民主党现在显然是最有希望改变参议院控制权的人。特朗普总统在第一场辩论中的灾难性表现和冠状病毒诊断之后,连任人数的下降,以及随后的共和党下投票民调,都为共和党人在一个非常不稳定的时刻描绘了一幅可怕的图景。”33K世界播


Cook also updated its predicted gains for Democrats to two to seven seats and Taylor concluded that "Democrats are now the clear favorite to flip control of the Senate." 33K世界播

库克还将民主党人的预期收益更新为2至7个席位,泰勒得出结论称,“民主党人现在显然是推翻参议院控制权的热门人选。”33K世界播


The story of these final weeks of the 2020 campaign then may not be whether Republicans can hold on to their Senate majority but whether they can avoid a catastrophic seat loss -- dragged down by Trump's collapse at the top of the ticket. 33K世界播

那么,2020年竞选的最后几周的故事可能不是共和党人能否保住他们在参议院的多数席位,而是他们能否避免灾难性的席位流失--这是被特朗普在竞选榜首的崩溃拖累的。33K世界播


Given that, we need to keep an eye less on people like Cory Gardner (Colorado) and Martha McSally (Arizona), whose respective gooses appears to be already cooked, and more on the likes of Cornyn, Sullivan, Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) and the open Senate seat in Kansas. 33K世界播

有鉴于此,我们需要少关注科罗拉多州的科里·加德纳(Cory Gardner)和亚利桑那州的玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)这样的人,他们各自的鹅似乎已经煮熟了,我们需要更多地关注康宁(Cornyn)、沙利文(Sullivan)、林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)(南卡罗来纳州)和堪萨斯州的参议院空缺席位。33K世界播


In a normal political year, Republicans wouldn't be worried about those seats this late in an election. After all, Cornyn won in 2014 by 28 points. Graham won that year by 17 points. Trump carried Alaska by 14 points in 2016 while he won Kansas by nearly 21 points. 33K世界播

在一个正常的政治年度,共和党人不会担心选举这么晚的那些席位。毕竟,康宁在2014年以28分的优势获胜。那一年,格雷厄姆以17分的优势获胜。特朗普在2016年领先阿拉斯加14个百分点,而他赢得堪萨斯州近21个百分点。33K世界播


These are not typical targets for Democrats. But these are also not typical times. Trump's botched handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his repeated unwillingness to condemn hate groups, his utterly abnormal approach to the presidency has had consequences on the electorate. As has Republican senators' willingness to capitulate to Trump's wishes -- legislatively speaking -- and to sit in silence as he breaks norm after norm after norm. 33K世界播

这些都不是民主党人的典型目标。但这也不是典型的时代。特朗普对冠状病毒大流行的拙劣处理,他一再不愿谴责仇恨团体,他对待总统的极端反常方式,都给选民带来了后果。共和党参议员愿意屈服于特朗普的愿望-从立法上讲-并在他打破一个又一个规范时默默地坐着,这一点也是如此。33K世界播


What we know right now is that the national political environment is bad for Republicans. What we don't know yet is just how bad it is. If Trump is truly in a dogfight with former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas and Georgia, it's entirely possible Republican senators from those states could be swept under in the tsunami. Ditto if Trump is only winning South Carolina or Kansas by single-digits. 33K世界播

我们现在知道的是,全国政治环境对共和党人不利。我们还不知道的是它到底有多糟糕。如果特朗普真的在得克萨斯州和佐治亚州与前副总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)展开混战,这些州的共和党参议员完全有可能在海啸中被淹没。如果特朗普只以个位数的优势赢得南卡罗来纳州或堪萨斯州,情况也是如此。33K世界播


If past is prologue, these things have a tendency to snowball. Seats rated as "toss ups" very rarely split between the two parties. Usually they all fall in a single direction -- influenced by the broader political dynamic at work in the country. Should that happen this November, we could be talking about Democrats with a considerable Senate majority come 2021 -- and Republicans facing an extended period in the minority. 33K世界播

如果过去是序幕,这些事情就有滚雪球的趋势。被评为“掷硬币”的席位很少在两党之间分配。通常情况下,它们都落在一个方向上--受到这个国家更广泛的政治动态的影响。如果这在今年11月发生,到2021年,我们可能会谈论拥有相当大参议院多数席位的民主党人,而共和党人将面临更长的少数党任期。33K世界播

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