40多万人在第一波高峰抓住了新冠肺炎

2020-10-14 06:35

How England's Covid-19 outbreak is still NOWHERE near the first peak: Cambridge University experts estimate more than 400,000 people caught Covid-19 the day before lockdown - but say nearly 50,000 are now getting infected daily Dea世界播

英格兰的新冠肺炎疫情如何仍远未达到第一个高峰:剑桥大学专家估计,在封锁的前一天,有40多万人感染了新冠肺炎-但表示现在每天都有近50,000人感染。Dea世界播


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Coronavirus infections in England are still more than eight times below the devastating levels they reached in the spring and the country's outbreak is growing slower than it did in the first wave, according to top scientists. Dea世界播

顶尖科学家表示,英国的冠状病毒感染仍比春季达到的毁灭性水平低8倍以上,该国疫情的增长速度比第一波慢。Dea世界播


Cambridge University researchers, whose estimates feed into No 10's advisory panel SAGE, believe 47,000 people are currently catching the disease every day in England. This is in line with a separate government-run coronavirus surveillance scheme, which claimed the figure was 45,000 on October 8. Dea世界播

剑桥大学的研究人员认为,目前英格兰每天有4.7万人感染这种疾病。他们的估计提供给了第10号顾问小组SAGE。这与另一个政府运营的冠状病毒监测计划是一致的,该计划声称10月8日的数字为4.5万。Dea世界播


But the academics, who have re-modelled their estimates, now believe 412,000 people caught the virus on March 23, the day Boris Johnson imposed the national lockdown, after cases spiralled rapidly in a matter of weeks. This eventually fizzled out to below 1,000 at the end of July and start of August. Dea世界播

但这些学者重新调整了他们的估计,现在认为,在病例在几周内迅速螺旋式上升后,3月23日,也就是鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)实施全国封锁的那一天,有41.2万人感染了埃博拉病毒。这一数字最终在7月底和8月初跌至1000人以下。Dea世界播


For comparison, health chiefs today posted another 17,234 official cases for the whole of Britain — a figure which has risen 20 per cent in a week. But the true size of the outbreak is not evident in official testing statistics because not everyone who is infected gets tested, or even shows symptoms to warrant a swab. Dea世界播

相比之下,卫生局局长今天公布了全英国17234例官方病例,这一数字在一周内上升了20%。但在官方检测统计数据中,疫情的真实规模并不明显,因为并不是每个感染的人都会接受检测,甚至不是每个人都有症状需要拭子拭子。Dea世界播


Data from the darkest days of the crisis in March and April is also wildly inaccurate because of the government's lacklustre testing programme, which meant millions of infected Britons went without a test. Dea世界播

3月和4月危机最黑暗时期的数据也非常不准确,因为政府的检测计划乏善可陈,这意味着数百万受感染的英国人没有进行检测。Dea世界播


Cambridge experts have tracked statistics on England's coronavirus outbreak since February, providing frequent predictions for how widespread Covid-19 is across the country as a whole and each region. The team also works backwards to estimate the R rate and the true number of daily infections. Dea世界播

自2月份以来,剑桥专家一直在追踪英国冠状病毒爆发的统计数据,对新冠肺炎在整个国家和每个地区的流行程度提供了频繁的预测。该研究小组还向后工作,估计R率和每日感染的真实数量。Dea世界播


Despite figures showing cases are still much lower than they were at the time of the peak of the spring pandemic, the academics have projected 500 people could die each day by October 29. This is darker than the bold claims of the government's top two advisers, who warned the figure could reach 200 by the end of the month. Dea世界播

尽管数据显示病例仍远低于春季大流行高峰期,但学者们预测,到10月29日,每天可能有500人死亡。这比政府两位最高顾问的大胆说法更为悲观,他们警告称,到本月底,这一数字可能会达到200人。Dea世界播


Data from Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England on Covid-19 confirmed deaths and antibody prevalence is used, alongside information from Google and the ONS on mixing between different age groups, to predict the figures. Dea世界播

英国公共卫生署和英国国家医疗服务体系关于新冠肺炎确认的死亡人数和抗体流行率的数据,以及谷歌和英国国家统计局关于不同年龄段混合的信息,被用来预测这些数字。Dea世界播


The figures come as Britain today recorded more than 100 coronavirus deaths for the first time in four months as officials announced 143 more victims. Department of Health statistics show the grim milestone hadn't been hit since June 17, when 110 lab-confirmed fatalities were added to the tally. Dea世界播

今天,英国官方宣布又有143人死于冠状病毒,这是四个月来英国首次记录到超过100人死于冠状病毒。卫生部的统计数据显示,自6月17日以来,这一可怕的里程碑还没有达到过。6月17日,实验室确认的死亡人数增加了110人。Dea世界播


Sir Keir Starmer tonight demanded Britain be plunged into a nationwide 'circuit-breaker' as soon as possible, as he accused Boris Johnson of losing control of the coronavirus pandemic. Labour's leader said a complete shutdown lasting two to three weeks could be timed to take place over half-term to minimise disruption but admitted that 'sacrifices' would have to be made. Dea世界播

基尔·斯塔默爵士今晚指责鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)失去了对冠状病毒大流行的控制,要求英国尽快陷入全国性的“熔断机制”。工党领袖表示,可能会将持续两到三周的完全停摆安排在中期选举中进行,以将干扰降至最低,但他承认,必须做出“牺牲”。Dea世界播


His comments came as a senior minister today admitted national rules will 'probably' have to get tougher after it was revealed the Prime Minister is at war with SAGE over demands for a 'circuit-breaker' lockdown for the whole of the UK as the October school half-term approaches. Dea世界播

他发表此番言论之际,一位高级大臣今天承认,随着10月份学校期中考试的临近,首相与Sage就要求整个英国实施“断路器”封锁的要求发生了争执,国家规定“很可能”将不得不变得更加严格。Dea世界播


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This graph shows infections diagnosed by day announced (yellow) and total infections thought to have occurred, according to the model by Cambridge academics (red). It currently estimates there are around 47,000 new infections a day in England Dea世界播

根据剑桥学者的模型(红色),这张图显示了按宣布日期诊断的感染(黄色)和认为已经发生的总感染。该组织目前估计,英格兰每天约有4.7万名新感染者Dea世界播


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These graphs show the number of new infections per day thought to have occurred in England and the East of England throughout the pandemic. Numbers go up to October 9.The first blue line represents lockdown being imposed on March 23, and the second is where restrictions began to be lifted Dea世界播

这些图表显示了被认为在整个大流行期间在英格兰和英格兰东部每天发生的新感染人数。数字上升到10月9日。第一条蓝线代表3月23日实施的封锁,第二条蓝线是限制开始解除的地方Dea世界播


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These graphs show the number of infections thought to have happened per day during the pandemic up to October 9, according to the Cambridge model. The first blue line represents lockdown being imposed on March 23, and the second is where restrictions began to be lifted Dea世界播

根据剑桥模型,这些图表显示了截至10月9日的大流行期间被认为每天发生的感染人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日开始实施的封锁,第二条蓝线是限制开始解除的地方Dea世界播


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These graphs show the number of coronavirus infections thought to have happened per day in the North West and the North East and Yorkshire up to October 9, according to the Cambridge model. The first blue line represents lockdown being imposed on March 23, and the second is where restrictions were first lifted on May 11 Dea世界播

根据剑桥模型,这些图表显示了截至10月9日,被认为每天在西北、东北部和约克郡发生的冠状病毒感染人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日实施的封锁,第二条蓝线代表5月11日首次解除限制的地方Dea世界播


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These graphs show the number of coronavirus infections thought to have happened per day in London and the Midlands up to October 9, according to the Cambridge model. The first blue line represents lockdown being imposed on March 23, and the second is where restrictions were first lifted on May 11 Dea世界播

根据剑桥模型,这些图表显示了截至10月9日,伦敦和米德兰地区每天发生的冠状病毒感染人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日实施的封锁,第二条蓝线代表5月11日首次解除限制的地方Dea世界播


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The latest estimate from the Cambridge team - which goes up until October 9 - claims England is seeing 47,000 new infections a day. But the scientists warn this could actually be as high as 75,000 or as low as 28,000. Dea世界播

剑桥研究小组的最新估计-将持续到10月9日-声称英格兰每天有4.7万新感染病例。但科学家警告说,这实际上可能高达75000人,也可能低至28000人。Dea世界播


The level of infection is set to rise, the team warned, and the number of deaths from coronavirus will likely quadruple within two weeks, reaching between 240 and 690 by October 26. Dea世界播

该小组警告说,感染水平将会上升,死于冠状病毒的人数可能会在两周内翻两番,到10月26日达到240到690人。Dea世界播


They estimated the R number is above the dreaded level of one in all of the regions apart from the South West, where they predict it stands at around 0.86. Dea世界播

他们估计,除西南部外,所有地区的R值都高于令人恐惧的1的水平,他们预测西南部的R值约为0.86。Dea世界播


London has had the highest levels of infection in the country, with one in five residents thought to have been infected. The North West has the second-highest level, with three in twenty residents thought to have been infected. Dea世界播

伦敦的感染水平是全国最高的,每五名居民中就有一人被认为感染了病毒。西北地区的感染水平第二高,每20名居民中就有3人被认为感染了埃博拉病毒。Dea世界播


These numbers remain far below the height of the pandemic, where more than 100,000 people are thought to have been infected every day for 15 days between March 17 and April 1. Dea世界播

这些数字仍然远远低于大流行的高峰,在3月17日至4月1日期间的15天里,据信每天都有超过10万人感染。Dea世界播


On the day lockdown was declared, March 23, the model suggests there may have been as many as 542,000 new infections. But the team's best guess stood at around 412,000. Dea世界播

在3月23日宣布封锁的当天,该模型表明可能有多达54.2万人新感染。但该团队最好的猜测是41.2万人左右。Dea世界播


Experts are forced to rely on estimates of infections because, at the height of the pandemic, the testing system was unable to diagnose all the cases. Dea世界播

专家们被迫依赖感染估计,因为在大流行最严重的时候,检测系统无法诊断所有病例。Dea世界播


A swabs shortage meant many patients were never tested for the virus even though they were suffering from the tell-tale symptoms, meaning their case wasn't recorded. Dea世界播

棉签短缺意味着许多患者从未接受过病毒检测,尽管他们正遭受着明显的症状,这意味着他们的病例没有记录下来。Dea世界播


Just one case in every ten was detected in March, according to experts, but by October this has risen markedly to an estimated one in three. Dea世界播

根据专家的说法,3月份只有十分之一的病例被发现,但到了10月份,这一比例已显著上升至估计的三分之一。Dea世界播


Although the estimated number of new infections is far below the levels in March, the number of patients in hospital with the virus has surged to the same number as was recorded in the spring. Dea世界播

尽管估计的新感染人数远低于3月份的水平,但住院感染病毒的患者数量已飙升至与春季记录的相同数量。Dea世界播


There were 3,905 patients in England receiving treatment for coronavirus in hospital on October 13, matching the level of 3,097 patients in hospital on March 23. But this was before the peak of 17,172 Covid-19 patients in hospital on April 12. Dea世界播

10月13日,英国有3905名患者在医院接受冠状病毒治疗,与3月23日在医院接受治疗的3097名患者的水平持平。但这是在4月12日新冠肺炎住院患者17,172人的高峰期之前。Dea世界播


The Cambridge University academics estimate around 18,000 people in England were catching the virus every day two weeks before lockdown — only slightly higher than the 15,000 towards the end of September. It can take patients a fortnight, on average, to become seriously ill and need hospital treatment. Dea世界播

剑桥大学的学者估计,在封锁前两周,英国每天约有1.8万人感染病毒-仅略高于9月底的1.5万人。平均而言,患者可能需要两周的时间才能患上重病并需要住院治疗。Dea世界播


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These graphs reveal the number of deaths from coronavirus that occurred per day in England and the East of England. The first blue line represents the start of lockdown, March 23, and the second represents the first relaxation of restrictions, May 11. The red dots represent the number of observed deaths Dea世界播

这些图表显示了英格兰和英格兰东部每天发生的冠状病毒死亡人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日开始封锁,第二条代表5月11日首次放宽限制。红点代表观察到的死亡人数Dea世界播


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These graphs reveal the number of deaths from coronavirus that occurred per day in the South East and the South West. The first blue line represents the start of lockdown, March 23, and the second represents the first relaxation of restrictions, May 11. The red dots represent the number of observed deaths Dea世界播

这些图表揭示了每天在东南部和西南部发生的冠状病毒死亡人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日开始封锁,第二条代表5月11日首次放宽限制。红点代表观察到的死亡人数Dea世界播


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These graphs reveal the number of deaths from coronavirus that occurred per day in the North West and the North East and Yorkshire. The first blue line represents the start of lockdown, March 23, and the second represents the first relaxation of restrictions, May 11. The red dots represent the number of observed deaths Dea世界播

这些图表显示了西北部、东北部和约克郡每天发生的冠状病毒死亡人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日开始封锁,第二条代表5月11日首次放宽限制。红点代表观察到的死亡人数Dea世界播


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These graphs reveal the number of deaths from coronavirus that occurred per day in London and the Midlands. The first blue line represents the start of lockdown, March 23, and the second represents the first relaxation of restrictions, May 11. The red dots represent the number of observed deaths Dea世界播

这些图表显示了伦敦和中部地区每天发生的冠状病毒死亡人数。第一条蓝线代表3月23日开始封锁,第二条代表5月11日首次放宽限制。红点代表观察到的死亡人数Dea世界播


Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist from the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline the discrepancy may be linked to the fact the graph hasn't been updated since October 9. Dea世界播

东英吉利大学流行病学家保罗·亨特教授告诉每日邮报在线,这种差异可能与该图表自10月9日以来没有更新的事实有关。Dea世界播


'One of the issues with modelling is we really didn't have anywhere near the information of what was going on that we have now,' he said. Dea世界播

他说,模特儿的问题之一是,我们真的一点也不了解现在发生的事情。Dea世界播


'The incidence data seems to have stopped about October 9, half a week ago, and is still relatively low compared to the peak. Dea世界播

他说,发病率数据似乎在10月9日左右停止了,也就是半周前,与峰值相比仍相对较低。Dea世界播


'But if you look at the deaths incidence, now, on Oct 10, it's still very low compared to the peak - but what's happening is they are predicting a big rise over towards the end of the month. Dea世界播

“但如果你看看10月10日的死亡率,与峰值相比仍然很低--但现在发生的情况是,他们预测本月底会大幅上升。”Dea世界播


'The two graphs don't have the same date ranges in them which I think is part of the confusion and so the incidence is based on current data whereas the deaths is based on predictions.' Dea世界播

“这两张图表的日期范围不一样,我认为这是混淆的一部分,所以发病率是基于当前的数据,而死亡是基于预测。”Dea世界播


It has also been suggested there are so many people hospitalised at present because healthcare staff have more experience with the virus, and act quickly by bringing patients into hospital for early treatment. Dea世界播

还有人表示,目前住院的人如此之多,是因为医护人员对病毒有更多的经验,他们会迅速采取行动,将患者带到医院进行早期治疗。Dea世界播


It comes as a senior minister today admitted national rules will 'probably' have to get tougher after it was revealed Boris Johnson is at war with SAGE over demands for a 'circuit-breaker' lockdown for the whole of the UK. Dea世界播

今天,一名高级大臣承认,在鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)与Sage就要求整个英国实施“熔断机制”封锁的要求发生冲突后,国家规则“可能”必须变得更加严格。Dea世界播


Housing Secretary Robert Jenrick conceded the government is poised to 'go further' after the PM unveiled his new 'Three Tier' system of local restrictions last night — but only put Merseyside in the harshest category that will see pubs and bars shut. Dea世界播

英国住房大臣罗伯特·詹里克(Robert Jenrick)承认,在首相昨晚公布了他的新的“三级”地方限制制度后,政府准备“走得更远”-但只会把默西塞德列入最严厉的类别,导致酒吧和酒吧关闭。Dea世界播


Mr Jenrick pointed to high rates of infection in areas such as Greater Manchester and Nottingham, appealing for local leaders to agree terms to move up from Tier Two. But he dismissed claims that the government was not being 'robust' enough, after bombshell documents slipped out late last night showed its own scientific advisers wanted much more dramatic action. Dea世界播

詹里克指出,大曼彻斯特和诺丁汉等地区的感染率很高,他呼吁当地领导人就从二级医院升级的条款达成一致。但他驳斥了有关政府不够“强硬”的说法,昨晚深夜泄露的令人震惊的文件显示,政府的科学顾问希望采取更戏剧性的行动。Dea世界播


The extraordinary spat emerged as Mr Johnson gathered his Cabinet for talks on the crisis, with infections threatening to spiral out of control again. Mr Johnson defiantly insisted at a No10 press conference last night that he had no intention of imposing a UK-wide squeeze that would 'shatter' the economy. Dea世界播

这场非同寻常的口角出现在约翰逊召集内阁讨论这场危机时,传染病有再次失控的危险。约翰逊在昨晚的10号新闻发布会上挑衅地坚称,他无意在全英国范围内实施会“摧毁”经济的紧缩措施。Dea世界播


But within hours the minutes of a SAGE meeting from September 21 were released, showing that is exactly what the key group was suggesting. The timing of the dump by the government — which was out of line with the usual Friday publication schedule — sparked speculation that ministers were trying to bury the news. Dea世界播

但在几个小时内,9月21日的圣人会议纪要被公布,显示这正是关键团体的建议。政府倾倒垃圾的时机-这与通常的周五发布时间表不符-引发了人们的猜测,即部长们正试图掩盖这一消息。Dea世界播

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