是什么让萨达姆·侯赛因认为他有机会在海湾战争中独自战胜一个庞大的联盟? Adam Johnson 的回答火了

2020-11-19 08:02

What made Saddam Hussein think he had any chance of winning against a giant coalition all by himself in the Gulf War? xzB世界播

是什么让萨达姆·侯赛因认为他有机会在海湾战争中独自战胜一个庞大的联盟?xzB世界播


Answered by: Adam Johnson,Reads historical non fiction just about every day xzB世界播

回答:亚当·约翰逊(Adam Johnson),几乎每天都阅读历史非虚构类书籍xzB世界播


Saddam never thought he could fight a US led coalition. xzB世界播

萨达姆从未想过他能与以美国为首的联盟作战。xzB世界播


Thanks to Wikileaks, we now know that the United States clearly told Saddam just prior to the invasion that they were indifferent to it and wouldn't get involved. AKA the United States gave the invasion a greenlight to go. xzB世界播

多亏了维基解密,我们现在知道,就在入侵前,美国明确告诉萨达姆,他们对此漠不关心,不会介入。也就是说,美国给入侵开绿灯。xzB世界播


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编辑:xzB世界播


Getting a surprising amount of pushback on this. The disagreement isn't a shock but it's rather humourous so many people are arguing against what the government itself has expressly admitted. xzB世界播

在这件事上受到了惊人的阻力。这种分歧并不令人震惊,但却相当幽默,所以很多人都在反对政府自己明确承认的事情。xzB世界播


For specifics, amidst Iraqi claims that the US approved of the invasion, the US ambassador to Iraq was called to testify in front of congress in 1991 to explain why she gave a greenlight to invade. She readily admitted that she had indeed said those things to Saddam but excused it under stating “I never thought he'd be stupid enough to actually invade Kuwait.” She made it seem like it was an offhand remark over what appeared to her to be nothing more than a minor economic dispute and then Saddam irrationally thought her offhand comment over an economic dispute meant he could invade. xzB世界播

具体来说,在伊拉克声称美国批准入侵的情况下,1991年,美国驻伊拉克大使被传唤到国会作证,解释她为什么批准入侵。她欣然承认,她确实对萨达姆说过那些话,但她辩解说:“我从未想过他会愚蠢到真的入侵科威特。”她让这看起来像是对她看来只不过是一场小小的经济争端的随意评论,然后萨达姆无理性地认为她对一场经济争端的随意评论意味着他可以入侵。xzB世界播


Despite that the transcript of her actual conversation with Saddam existed, it remained sealed from the public. The general narrative was that Saddam was an irrational fool so him misinterpreting our indifference over an economic disagreement as an ok to invade seemed plausible to the general public and the issue went away. xzB世界播

尽管她与萨达姆的实际谈话记录是存在的,但它仍然对公众保密。一般的说法是,萨达姆是一个非理性的傻瓜,所以他将我们对经济分歧的漠不关心误解为可以入侵,这在普通公众看来似乎是可信的,这个问题也就消失了。xzB世界播


Then in 2011, Wikileaks released the actual transcript. In it they endlessly discuss nothing but an invasion from troops being mobilized to the failure of negotiations etc etc. This made clear that there wasn't the previously stated ambiguity of the statement the US wouldn't care and wouldn't get involved. They were talking specifically about the invasion. Saddam even expressly promises not to invade until the upcoming talks are settled as he's giving negotiations one last shot. xzB世界播

然后在2011年,维基解密公布了真实的文字记录。在这份声明中,他们没完没了地讨论,除了出动军队入侵、谈判失败等等。这清楚地表明,这份声明并不存在之前所说的模棱两可,美国不会在意,也不会介入。他们特别谈到了入侵。萨达姆甚至明确承诺,在即将到来的谈判得到解决之前,他不会入侵,因为他正在给谈判最后一次机会。xzB世界播


If you're going to continue to challenge this in the comments, please provide actual sources. Everything I've stated is easily fact checked in both original documents and countless media reports on the issue. xzB世界播

如果你打算在评论中继续质疑这一点,请提供实际来源。我所说的一切都很容易在原始文件和无数关于这个问题的媒体报道中进行事实核查。xzB世界播


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结束编辑。xzB世界播


The Iraqi-Kuwaiti conflict is also far more nuanced than we commonly report as well. While we mention “he invaded a smaller country" we then fail to disclose that Kuwait had not only been the instigator but that many other countries would have acted sooner given similar conditions. The two countries had basically been at economic war for some time and this was a natural escalation, not a sudden and greed driven assault. xzB世界播

伊拉克和科威特的冲突也比我们通常报道的要微妙得多。尽管我们提到了“他入侵了一个较小的国家”,但我们没有透露,科威特不仅是煽动者,而且在类似条件下,其他许多国家也会更早采取行动。这两个国家基本上已经打了一段时间的经济战,这是一种自然升级,而不是突然的、贪婪驱使的袭击。xzB世界播


For background, during the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq went into deep debt to pay for the war. Afterwards, they sought to pay it off via oil. xzB世界播

作为背景,在两伊战争期间,伊拉克陷入了沉重的债务,以支付战争费用。之后,他们试图通过石油还清债务。xzB世界播


So Iraq was asking OPEC to lower production quotas to raise prices while Kuwait was appealing OPEC to increase production and lower prices. On its own just an annoyance but there's more to it. Even with appeals for more production, Kuwait was still producing about 50% more than their OPEC quota allowed. This helped keep oil prices lower and reduced Iraq's ability to pay off their debt. xzB世界播

因此,伊拉克要求欧佩克降低产量配额以提高油价,而科威特则呼吁欧佩克增产降价。就其本身而言,这只是一件烦人的事,但还有更多的事情要做。即使呼吁增产,科威特的产量仍比欧佩克允许的配额高出约50%。这有助于保持较低的油价,并降低了伊拉克偿还债务的能力。xzB世界播


Then you had the fact that during this time Kuwait was slant drilling into Iraqi oil fields to steal billions of dollars worth of their oil. You may recall that it inspired a Simpsons episode with Mr. Burns as the slant driller. That's a classic episode and I highly suggest you watch it if you haven't. xzB世界播

还有一个事实是,在这段时间里,科威特偏向钻探伊拉克油田,窃取了价值数十亿美元的石油。你可能还记得,它激发了《辛普森一家》一集的灵感,伯恩斯饰演斜钻。这是一集经典的剧集,如果你还没有看过,我强烈建议你去看。xzB世界播


Making matters worse, a lot of the debt Iraq owed was to Kuwait. This was a particularly awkward arrangement since Iran had regularly attacked both Kuwaiti territory and their tankers and was protected by Iraq. Iraq felt very betrayed that despite that they'd helped Kuwait survive, not only would Kuwait not forgive or negotiate some of the debt but they were undermining them in setting lower prices as well as outright stealing from them. xzB世界播

更糟糕的是,伊拉克欠科威特的债务有很大一部分是欠科威特的。这是一个特别尴尬的安排,因为伊朗经常袭击科威特领土及其油轮,并受到伊拉克的保护。伊拉克感到非常被背叛,尽管他们帮助科威特生存下来,但科威特不仅不会免除或谈判一些债务,而且他们设定更低的价格,以及直接从他们那里窃取,这是在破坏他们。xzB世界播


Iraq exhausted all options trying to negotiate with Kuwait but they wouldn't budge. Backed into a corner, Iraq saw no other options and after obtaining US permission, proceeded with the invasion. xzB世界播

伊拉克用尽了所有的选择,试图与科威特谈判,但他们不肯让步。退回到角落,伊拉克别无选择,在获得美国的许可后,继续入侵伊拉克。xzB世界播


You don't ask a third party country (who is already an ally of yours) for permission to invade another country if you aren't extremely fearful of what that country may do if they got upset. xzB世界播

如果你不是非常害怕第三方国家(他已经是你的盟友)在他们生气时会做什么,你就不能请求他们允许你入侵另一个国家。xzB世界播


While Iraq had a massive army that was very impressive on paper, it simply was no match for the United States air power. This is what happened as they retreated from secure bases in Kuwait through the open desert. xzB世界播

虽然伊拉克拥有一支理论上非常令人印象深刻的庞大军队,但它根本无法与美国的空中力量相匹敌。这就是他们从科威特安全基地撤退穿过开阔沙漠时发生的事情。xzB世界播


It's called the highway of death. xzB世界播

它被称为死亡之路。xzB世界播


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