为什么唐纳德·特朗普在所有民调中都远远落后于无法赶上的州举行集会? Andreas Konstantinos Argeros 的回答火了

2020-11-01 00:32

Why is Donald Trump holding rallies in states where he is way too far behind in all the polls to catch up? dgv世界播

为什么唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在所有民调中都远远落后于无法赶上的州举行集会?dgv世界播


Answered by: Andreas Konstantinos Argeros,J.D., CUNY Law (2020), B.A. Int. Political Economy dgv世界播

答复者:Andreas Konstantinos Argeros,J.D.,CUNY Law(2020),B.A.Int。政治经济学dgv世界播


I’m actually crying for America as I write this. I will explain why Donald Trump is rallying in places that at first make no sense, like New Hampshire. We should all be very worried by what this means for a week from now. dgv世界播

当我写这篇文章的时候,我实际上是在为美国哭泣。我会解释为什么唐纳德·特朗普会在一开始毫无意义的地方集会,比如新罕布夏州。从现在开始的一周内,我们都应该非常担心这意味着什么。dgv世界播


Most people have not picked up on this, but in the background of the election McConnell and Pelosi have been preparing what is called the “contingent election” process. I wrote about this at the beginning of the month, but tl;dr Congress will actually be the ones voting to determine the President in election 2020, and the process of voting follows a special procedure. I discuss that procedure more in depth here (and I recommend you read it, because you’ll have a deeper understanding of the following), but suffice it to say, the Republicans have more votes under that procedure than the Democrats do, and the aim of Trump’s visit is to make sure Republicans keep that majority, or add to it, so that they can reelect him. dgv世界播

大多数人还没有意识到这一点,但在选举的背景下,麦康奈尔和佩洛西一直在准备所谓的“临时选举”过程。我在本月初曾写过这方面的内容,但实际上,2020年选举中投票决定总统人选的将是国会博士,投票过程遵循一个特殊的程序。我在这里更深入地讨论这一程序(我建议你阅读它,因为你会对以下内容有更深的理解),但可以说的是,根据这一程序,共和党人比民主党人拥有更多的选票,特朗普此行的目的是确保共和党人保持或增加多数,这样他们就可以连任他。dgv世界播


Why is Congress going to elect the President? As I said back in June, the President wants to muddy the election results with lawsuits such that either no candidate will have the electoral votes needed, or otherwise votes that are against Trump will be purged. The Trump fanboys didn’t like that so that answer got pretty heavily downvoted, but hey, truth is more important to me than upvotes. Nevertheless, that’s exactly what happened. I’m not pleased about being right. dgv世界播

为什么国会要选举总统?正如我在6月份说过的那样,总统希望用诉讼来搅乱选举结果,这样要么没有候选人获得所需的选举人票,要么反对特朗普的选票将被清除。特朗普的粉丝们不喜欢这样,所以这个答案遭到了相当严重的否决,但嘿,对我来说,真相比上扬更重要。然而,这正是发生的事情。我对自己是对的并不满意。dgv世界播


So, with the popular election neutered, we come to Congress, and your question. Why would Trump be campaigning in New Hampshire when he is down by 12 points? The reason is New Hampshire’s congressional delegation. This is the current lot: dgv世界播

因此,随着普选的平息,我们来到国会,提出您的问题。为什么特朗普在落后12个百分点的情况下还会在新罕布什尔州进行竞选活动?原因是新罕布夏州的国会代表团。这是当前的拍品:dgv世界播


dgv世界播


Pappas’, and Kuster’s terms end on January 3, 2021. They are currently up for reelection. In particular Pappas’ 1st district is ready to flip. In fact, if Pappas won he would be the first incumbent to do so in 12 years in this district. dgv世界播

帕帕斯和库斯特的任期将于2021年1月3日结束。他们目前正在竞选连任。特别值得一提的是,帕帕斯的第一选区已经准备好了。事实上,如果帕帕斯获胜,他将是这个地区12年来第一位这样做的现任总统。dgv世界播


It is no coincidence then that Trump’s rally occurred in Londonderry, New Hampshire in the 1st district where as Pappas describes them, “Things are hanging by a thread.” dgv世界播

因此,特朗普的集会发生在新罕布夏州伦敦德里的第一个区,正如帕帕斯所描述的那样,“事情危在旦夕”,这并不是巧合。dgv世界播


If Trump manages to flip these seats, then New Hampshire’s congressional delegation will be split 50–50 Democrat and Republican. If Republicans can pick up the two House seats from NH, then they can cast NH’s vote in favor of Trump. If they can contest the NH House election long enough, then they might knock NH out from the voting altogether, and that would at least be a neutral result, in the event the House seats don’t appear to be flipping in favor of Republicans. dgv世界播

如果特朗普成功地颠覆了这些席位,那么新汉普郡的国会代表团将分为民主党和共和党各占一半。如果共和党人能够从NH手中拿下众议院的两个席位,那么他们就可以将NH的选票投给特朗普。如果他们能在NH众议院选举中竞争足够长的时间,那么他们可能会将NH从投票中彻底淘汰,这至少是一个中性的结果,如果众议院席位似乎没有转向共和党的话。dgv世界播


Show me any state where Trump has no business rallying, and I will probably be able to find a Congressional delegation he is trying to alter the balance of. Again, these delegations may be the ones determining who the President will be, and you can understand why in that post I linked to above. dgv世界播

向我展示特朗普不适合集会的任何州,我可能都能找到他试图改变其平衡的国会代表团。再说一次,这些代表团可能是决定谁将成为主席的人,你可以理解为什么我在上面的那篇帖子中提到了这一点。dgv世界播


We should be very concerned that the President is no longer rallying in places to gain a victory through the national election. Rather, he has shifted his strategy to try and poach Congressional seats in order to win a contingent election process. dgv世界播

我们应该非常担心,总统不再在一些地方集会,通过全国选举取得胜利。相反,他已经改变了策略,试图挖走国会席位,以赢得临时选举过程。dgv世界播


I’m not sure what else there is to say. dgv世界播

我不确定还有什么可说的。dgv世界播


Update: Wow, I’m disgusted. The President literally just admitted he wants to punt the election to the Supreme Court on October 30, 2020 at 2 am. Let me offer some unsolicited advice. Never enter into any kind of relationship with someone who manically tweets things at 2 am. Personal or political. dgv世界播

更新:哇,我恶心死了。从字面上看,总统刚刚承认他想把2020年10月30日凌晨2点的选举推到最高法院。让我提供一些不请自来的建议。永远不要和在凌晨2点疯狂发推特的人建立任何关系。个人的或政治的。dgv世界播


dgv世界播


I wonder why he is treating it like a foregone conclusion that the Court will be required to decide the election… dgv世界播

我想知道为什么他把这件事当做必然的结论,认为法院将被要求决定选举…。dgv世界播


So let’s be clear this is Don’s plan: 1) Vote suppression. If that doesn’t work; then 2) Have the Court throw out the votes, such that Trump wins, or no one receives the necessary number of electoral votes; and in the latter case 3) As I outlined above, have the Republicans in Congress use their delegation majority to elect him. dgv世界播

所以让我们明确一下,这就是唐的计划:1)压制选票。如果这不起作用;那么2)让最高法院扔掉选票,这样特朗普就会获胜,或者没有人获得必要数量的选举人票;在后一种情况下,3)就像我上面概述的那样,让国会中的共和党人利用他们的代表多数票来选举他。dgv世界播

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