为什么唐纳德·特朗普在所有民调中都远远落后于无法赶上的州举行集会? Andreas Konstantinos Argeros 的回答火了

2020-11-01 00:32

Why is Donald Trump holding rallies in states where he is way too far behind in all the polls to catch up? dgv世界播

为什么唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)在所有民调中都远远落后于无法赶上的州举行集会?dgv世界播

Answered by: Andreas Konstantinos Argeros,J.D., CUNY Law (2020), B.A. Int. Political Economy dgv世界播

答复者:Andreas Konstantinos Argeros,J.D.,CUNY Law(2020),B.A.Int。政治经济学dgv世界播

I’m actually crying for America as I write this. I will explain why Donald Trump is rallying in places that at first make no sense, like New Hampshire. We should all be very worried by what this means for a week from now. dgv世界播


Most people have not picked up on this, but in the background of the election McConnell and Pelosi have been preparing what is called the “contingent election” process. I wrote about this at the beginning of the month, but tl;dr Congress will actually be the ones voting to determine the President in election 2020, and the process of voting follows a special procedure. I discuss that procedure more in depth here (and I recommend you read it, because you’ll have a deeper understanding of the following), but suffice it to say, the Republicans have more votes under that procedure than the Democrats do, and the aim of Trump’s visit is to make sure Republicans keep that majority, or add to it, so that they can reelect him. dgv世界播


Why is Congress going to elect the President? As I said back in June, the President wants to muddy the election results with lawsuits such that either no candidate will have the electoral votes needed, or otherwise votes that are against Trump will be purged. The Trump fanboys didn’t like that so that answer got pretty heavily downvoted, but hey, truth is more important to me than upvotes. Nevertheless, that’s exactly what happened. I’m not pleased about being right. dgv世界播


So, with the popular election neutered, we come to Congress, and your question. Why would Trump be campaigning in New Hampshire when he is down by 12 points? The reason is New Hampshire’s congressional delegation. This is the current lot: dgv世界播



Pappas’, and Kuster’s terms end on January 3, 2021. They are currently up for reelection. In particular Pappas’ 1st district is ready to flip. In fact, if Pappas won he would be the first incumbent to do so in 12 years in this district. dgv世界播


It is no coincidence then that Trump’s rally occurred in Londonderry, New Hampshire in the 1st district where as Pappas describes them, “Things are hanging by a thread.” dgv世界播


If Trump manages to flip these seats, then New Hampshire’s congressional delegation will be split 50–50 Democrat and Republican. If Republicans can pick up the two House seats from NH, then they can cast NH’s vote in favor of Trump. If they can contest the NH House election long enough, then they might knock NH out from the voting altogether, and that would at least be a neutral result, in the event the House seats don’t appear to be flipping in favor of Republicans. dgv世界播


Show me any state where Trump has no business rallying, and I will probably be able to find a Congressional delegation he is trying to alter the balance of. Again, these delegations may be the ones determining who the President will be, and you can understand why in that post I linked to above. dgv世界播


We should be very concerned that the President is no longer rallying in places to gain a victory through the national election. Rather, he has shifted his strategy to try and poach Congressional seats in order to win a contingent election process. dgv世界播


I’m not sure what else there is to say. dgv世界播


Update: Wow, I’m disgusted. The President literally just admitted he wants to punt the election to the Supreme Court on October 30, 2020 at 2 am. Let me offer some unsolicited advice. Never enter into any kind of relationship with someone who manically tweets things at 2 am. Personal or political. dgv世界播



I wonder why he is treating it like a foregone conclusion that the Court will be required to decide the election… dgv世界播


So let’s be clear this is Don’s plan: 1) Vote suppression. If that doesn’t work; then 2) Have the Court throw out the votes, such that Trump wins, or no one receives the necessary number of electoral votes; and in the latter case 3) As I outlined above, have the Republicans in Congress use their delegation majority to elect him. dgv世界播


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