如果萨达姆没有大规模杀伤性武器,并面临入侵和处决,为什么他不干脆允许核查人员100%进入呢? Toma Vargazon 这样说...

2020-10-14 09:28

If Saddam didn't have WMD and faced invasion and execution, why didn't he simply allow inspectors complete 100% access? 7dH世界播

如果萨达姆没有大规模杀伤性武器,并面临入侵和处决,为什么他不干脆允许核查人员100%进入呢?7dH世界播


Answered by: Toma Vargazon,A man of (too) many interest 7dH世界播

回答是:TomaVargazon,一个(太)有趣的人7dH世界播


The main reason was twofold. 7dH世界播

主要原因有两个。7dH世界播


The first was that the Resolution called for a verifiable proof the WMDs were disposed of. If Iraq had no WMDs (it didn’t), then it had to prove where and how it disposed of them. 7dH世界播

首先,决议要求提供大规模杀伤性武器被处置的可核查证据。如果伊拉克没有大规模杀伤性武器(它没有),那么它必须证明它在哪里以及如何处置它们。7dH世界播


This presented a problem for Iraq that destroyed the weapons in clandestine manner, in order to keep up the Potemkin WMD program as a deterrent against Iran. Saddam was afraid without those, Iran may seek to destabilize Iraq and overthrow Saddam in favor of their Shia allies within Iraq. Saddam believed the threat of chemical weapons shielded him from that fate. 7dH世界播

这给伊拉克带来了一个问题,伊拉克秘密销毁了这些武器,以便继续实施波坦金大规模杀伤性武器计划,作为对伊朗的威慑。萨达姆担心,如果没有这些,伊朗可能会寻求破坏伊拉克的稳定,推翻萨达姆,转而支持他们在伊拉克的什叶派盟友。萨达姆认为化学武器的威胁使他免于这种命运。7dH世界播


The weapons were still disposed of, but no documentation was kept, I wouldn’t be surprised if key laborers were shot to keep anyone from finding this out. The upshot of that is the world at large was convinced Iraq had WMDs, but there were no credible witnesses, no paper trail and no evidence to show you’ve really done anything at all. 100% total access wouldn’t help, because Iraq is a vast and empty land, with a bajillion possible hiding places: 7dH世界播

武器仍在处理,但没有保存任何文件,如果关键劳工被枪杀,以防止有人发现这一点,我不会感到惊讶。其结果是全世界都确信伊拉克拥有大规模杀伤性武器,但没有可信的证人,没有书面证据,也没有证据表明你真的做了什么。100%的完全访问也无济于事,因为伊拉克是一片广袤而空旷的土地,有无数可能的藏身之处:7dH世界播


7dH世界播


It took the coalition about half a year to discover the buried planes of the Iraqi air force, next to an airport. Iraq is larger than Germany and you’re looking for well hidden barrells. Good luck. 7dH世界播

联军花了大约半年的时间才发现机场旁边被掩埋的伊拉克空军飞机。伊拉克比德国还大,你要找的是隐蔽得很好的油桶。祝好运。7dH世界播


A second and much more important reason is that no matter what Iraq did, the invasion was going to happen. GWB and his staff were determined to change the regime in Iraq and the WMDs were just a convenient excuse, a slam dunk reason to invade Iraq, because it was so obvious Iraq was illegaly hiding weapons of mass destruction. Everyone knew it, from CIA to MI6 to DGSE to SVR RF, no one publically voiced concern Iraq actually had no weapons. They voiced other (and valid) concerns, but not the one that Iraq had no WMDs. Prove to them you have no WMDs early on and they just use some other reason to attack you instead. 7dH世界播

第二个也是更重要的原因是,无论伊拉克做什么,入侵都会发生。GWB和他的工作人员决心改变伊拉克的政权,大规模杀伤性武器只是一个方便的借口,一个入侵伊拉克的绝佳理由,因为伊拉克显然是非法藏匿大规模杀伤性武器的。每个人都知道这一点,从中央情报局到军情六处,从DGSE到SVR RF,没有人公开表示担心伊拉克实际上没有武器。他们表达了其他(也是合理的)担忧,但不是伊拉克没有大规模杀伤性武器的担忧。早些时候向他们证明你没有大规模杀伤性武器,他们就会用一些其他的理由来攻击你。7dH世界播


If you want to know what are the possible downsides of being too good at your job, Iraqi WMDs are a tragically good example of that. 7dH世界播

如果你想知道工作做得太好可能会带来什么负面影响,伊拉克大规模杀伤性武器就是一个很好的例子。7dH世界播

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