为什么第三方投票是个坏主意

2020-10-14 07:34

Your Third-Party Vote Could Affect the Outcome of the Election, but Not in the Way You'd Hope OVH世界播

你的第三党投票可能会影响选举结果,但不会以你希望的方式。OVH世界播


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We live in a country where we have the right to vote for anyone we choose. However, the reality of our two-party system means the winner of the presidential election will be one of two people: the Republican Party's nominee or the Democratic Party's nominee. It's been that way since 1852, and at this point, there's too much money, power, and deeply entrenched belief wrapped up in these two parties for things to change anytime soon. Given that 48 of the 50 states pledge their electoral votes to the winner of the state's popular vote — regardless of how closely the vote is split — the system simply doesn't reward second place, much less third. OVH世界播

我们生活在一个我们有权投票给我们选择的任何人的国家。然而,我们两党制的现实意味着总统选举的获胜者将是两个人中的一个:共和党的提名人或民主党的提名人。自1852年以来一直是这样,在这一点上,这两个政党包裹着太多的金钱、权力和根深蒂固的信念,事情不会很快改变。鉴于50个州中有48个州承诺将他们的选举人票投给该州普选的获胜者-无论选票多么接近-该系统根本不会奖励第二名,更不用说第三名了。OVH世界播


That's not to say third-party candidates are powerless. In fact, they can make a significant impact on presidential elections — just not the intended one. OVH世界播

这并不是说第三方候选人无能为力。事实上,他们可以对总统选举产生重大影响-只是不是预期的影响。OVH世界播


For example, in the 2016 election, both choices for president were fairly unpopular. As many as one in four Americans had an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. (And if you need any more proof of how contentious politics in the US have become, that number is double what it was in 2012 and about four times higher than in 2008.) This led to a large number of people voting for the candidates of two of the country's better-known alternative parties: Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. In Michigan, Johnson and Stein got 4.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just 0.3 percent, thus gaining all 16 of Michigan's electoral votes. While there's no way of knowing which of the two candidates voters would have chosen had they not gone third party, it's possible those votes could have made a difference in the election, especially because this pattern continued in several key states. OVH世界播

例如,在2016年大选中,两位总统候选人都相当不受欢迎。多达四分之一的美国人对两位候选人都持负面看法。(如果你需要更多证据来证明美国的政治已经变得多么有争议,这个数字是2012年的两倍,大约是2008年的4倍。)。这导致大量人投票给该国两个更知名的另类政党的候选人:自由党提名人加里·约翰逊(Gary Johnson)和绿党提名人吉尔·斯坦(Jill Stein)。在密歇根州,约翰逊和斯坦获得了4.7%的选票。唐纳德·特朗普仅以0.3%的优势击败希拉里·克林顿,从而赢得了密歇根州全部16张选举人票。虽然没有办法知道如果两位候选人中没有第三方选民会选择哪一位,但这些选票可能会在选举中产生影响,特别是因为这种模式在几个关键州仍在继续。OVH世界播


Another famous example is the 1992 election, which Democrat Bill Clinton won against Republican George H.W. Bush. In that election, Ross Perot ran as an independent and received a whopping 19,743,821 votes — nearly 20 percent of the popular vote. Bush only lost by around six million votes. Once again, while it's impossible to predict if the outcome would have changed had Perot not been on the ballot, we do know that only one state was won with more than half the votes. OVH世界播

另一个著名的例子是1992年的选举,民主党人比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)击败共和党人乔治·H·W·布什(George H.W.Bush)获胜。在那次选举中,罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)以无党派人士身份参选,获得了高达19743821张选票-接近20%的普选。布什只以大约600万张选票的差距落败。再一次,虽然无法预测如果佩罗不在选票上,结果是否会改变,但我们确实知道只有一个州以超过一半的选票获胜。OVH世界播


George Washington famously denounced the two-party system, but for better or for worse, that's where our country finds itself today. Third-party candidates can have an impact, and past elections have proved that; however, they typically don't have the impact their supporters intend. It's important to remember that candidates like Perot still finish the race with zero electoral votes and that his supporters might have preferred Bush, rather than Clinton, as their second choice. OVH世界播

乔治·华盛顿著名地谴责了两党制,但无论是好是坏,这就是我们国家今天发现自己的地方。第三党候选人可能会产生影响,过去的选举已经证明了这一点;然而,他们通常不会产生支持者想要的影响。重要的是要记住,像佩罗这样的候选人仍然以零选举人票结束竞选,他的支持者可能更喜欢布什,而不是克林顿,作为他们的第二选择。OVH世界播


In our society, your vote is your voice. But within a two-party system, there are only so many ways to make a political statement. It's unfortunate, but the way politics stand right now, a vote for a third-party candidate is futile. Even if you can't stand the idea of voting for either candidate, I'd encourage you to take the lesser-of-two-evils approach and consider which one you can't stand a little less. Instead of refusing to play into the system, make it work for you. OVH世界播

在我们的社会里,你的选票就是你的声音。但在两党体制下,发表政治声明的方式只有这么多。这是不幸的,但按照目前的政治方式,投票给第三党候选人是徒劳的。即使你不能忍受投票给任何一位候选人的想法,我也鼓励你采取两害相权取其轻的方法,并考虑一下你不能忍受哪一位稍微少一点。与其拒绝在系统中发挥作用,不如让它为你工作。OVH世界播

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