新的Covid毒株使研究复杂化,使保护那些处于危险中的人变得更加困难

2021-01-22 22:11

New Covid strains complicate research, make it harder to protect those at risk YXM世界播

新的Covid毒株使研究复杂化,使保护那些处于危险中的人变得更加困难YXM世界播


Hospitalizations for Covid-19 in the United States are falling after having hit record levels this month — a welcome sign that the winter surge may finally be leveling off. But as new, potentially more contagious variants of the virus circulate, coronavirus modelers warn that the U.S. is by no means out of the woods yet. YXM世界播

美国新冠肺炎的住院人数在本月创下历史新高后正在下降-这是一个可喜的迹象,表明冬季的激增可能终于趋于平稳。但随着新的、可能更具传染性的病毒变种的传播,冠状病毒建模人员警告说,美国还远未脱离险境。YXM世界播


The emergence of new variants isn't altogether surprising, but experts say that without a better understanding of how these strains affect things like transmissibility and the effectiveness of existing vaccines, it's difficult to know how the pandemic may play out. YXM世界播

新变种的出现并不完全令人惊讶,但专家表示,如果不能更好地了解这些毒株是如何影响传播性和现有疫苗的有效性等问题的,就很难知道大流行可能会如何发展。YXM世界播


"There's so much up in the air, and the new variants have thrown a huge monkey wrench into our ability to model things," said Dr. Jeanne Marrazzo, a professor of medicine and director of the division of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. "All of those things make the crystal ball very cloudy." YXM世界播

阿拉巴马大学伯明翰分校(University Of Alabama At Birmingham)医学教授、传染病系主任珍妮·马拉佐(Jeanne Marrazzo)博士说,“悬而未决的问题太多了,新的变种给我们的建模能力带来了巨大的障碍。”“所有这些都让水晶球变得非常模糊。”YXM世界播


Although hospitalizations and the number of new infections in the U.S. both declined compared to the previous seven days, Covid-19 deaths are still rising. The country surpassed 400,000 deaths this week, and on Wednesday it set a daily record, with 4,131 reported deaths, according to an NBC News tally. YXM世界播

尽管与前七天相比,美国的住院人数和新感染人数都有所下降,但新冠肺炎死亡人数仍在上升。据NBC新闻(NBC News)统计,本周该国死亡人数超过40万人,周三创下单日死亡人数纪录,报告死亡人数为4131人。YXM世界播


It's estimated that the coronavirus has undergone thousands of mutations since it was detected in humans. Many ended up being inconsequential, but scientists are concerned about any alterations that could make the virus more contagious or make the available vaccines less effective. YXM世界播

据估计,自从在人类身上检测到冠状病毒以来,它已经经历了数千次变异。许多疫苗最终都无关紧要,但科学家们担心任何可能使病毒更具传染性或使现有疫苗效力降低的改变。YXM世界播


Evidence from the U.K. has shown that one such variant, known as B.1.1.7, spreads more easily from person to person, although it doesn't seem to make people sicker and it appears to be susceptible to vaccines. A report released last week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the U.K. variant could become the predominant strain in the U.S. by March. YXM世界播

来自英国的证据显示,其中一种名为B.1.1.7的变种更容易在人与人之间传播,尽管它似乎不会让人病情加重,而且似乎对疫苗很敏感。美国疾病控制和预防中心(Centers For Disease Control And Prevention)上周发布的一份报告称,到明年3月,这种英国变种病毒可能会成为美国的主要病毒株。YXM世界播


New variants have also been reported in South Africa, Brazil and the U.S., with a flurry of research underway to characterize the changes. Early lab experiments suggest that the vaccines made by Pfizer and BioNTech and by Moderna may be less effective against the variant identified in South Africa, but the research wasn't done in humans, and the findings have yet to be peer-reviewed. YXM世界播

据报道,南非、巴西和美国也出现了新的变种,目前正在进行一系列研究,以确定这些变化的特征。早期的实验室实验表明,辉瑞(Pfizer)和生物技术(BioNTech)以及现代(Modern Na)生产的疫苗对南非发现的变种可能效果较差,但这项研究并不是在人类身上进行的,研究结果还有待同行审查。YXM世界播


As variants emerge, it will be crucial to adhere to measures to slow the virus's spread and pick up the pace of vaccinations to keep all of those figures from spiking, said coronavirus modeler Alessandro Vespignani, director of Northeastern University's Network Science Institute. YXM世界播

东北大学网络科学研究所所长、冠状病毒建模师亚历山德罗·维斯皮尼亚尼(Alessandro Vespignani)表示,随着变异株的出现,坚持采取措施减缓病毒传播并加快疫苗接种步伐,以防止所有这些数字飙升,这将是至关重要的。YXM世界播


That's because a more contagious variant is likely to result in more cases overall, which adds even more strain on health care systems that are already overburdened. YXM世界播

这是因为传染性更强的变种很可能导致更多的总体病例,这会给已经不堪重负的医疗保健系统增加更大的压力。YXM世界播


"It's a bit of a race against the emergence of new strains that are more transmissible," Vespignani said. "If we roll out the vaccine fast enough and keep epidemic levels low, that will also slow down the variants and buy us more time." YXM世界播

Vespignani说:“这有点像是在与传播性更强的新病毒株的出现赛跑。”“如果我们足够快地推出疫苗,并保持较低的流行水平,这也将减缓变异株的速度,为我们赢得更多时间。”YXM世界播


The distribution of vaccines has been problematic, with some states running out of their supplies while others have struggled to administer all the doses they were receiving. YXM世界播

疫苗的分发一直存在问题,一些州的供应已经用完,而另一些州则难以管理他们正在接种的所有剂量。YXM世界播


And there are concerns that the U.S. isn't doing enough to track genetic changes in the virus by sequencing genetic codes. Not knowing specifically what variants are present in the country makes it harder to protect those at risk, said former CDC official Ali Mokdad, a professor of global health at the University of Washington. It also makes it more challenging for modelers to project how the pandemic may unfold. YXM世界播

有人担心,美国在通过对遗传密码进行测序来追踪病毒基因变化方面做得不够。华盛顿大学(University Of Washington)全球卫生教授、前疾控中心官员阿里·穆克达德(Ali Mokda)表示,由于不清楚该国存在哪些变异,保护那些高危人群变得更加困难。这也增加了建模人员预测大流行可能如何展开的挑战。YXM世界播


"If we don't stay on top of what's circulating, we may have a homegrown variant that is more transmissible than the one we've seen in the U.K., and we wouldn't know," he said. YXM世界播

他说:“如果我们不掌握正在传播的病毒,我们可能会有一种本土的变种,比我们在英国看到的更容易传播,我们不会知道。”YXM世界播


Mokdad is part of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, which developed one of the most widely cited coronavirus models. Its current projection shows that while the number of new infections is decreasing in the U.S., Covid-19 deaths aren't expected to peak until early March. YXM世界播

Mokda是华盛顿大学健康指标和评估研究所的一部分,该研究所开发了被广泛引用的冠状病毒模型之一。该机构目前的预测显示,虽然美国新感染病例的数量正在减少,但新冠肺炎死亡人数预计要到3月初才会达到峰值。YXM世界播


Still, Mokdad said, there are ways the U.S. can avoid additional spikes in hospitalizations and deaths, even with the emergence of new variants. YXM世界播

不过,穆克达德说,即使出现了新的变种,美国也有办法避免住院和死亡人数进一步飙升。YXM世界播


"We have to do what we know is effective — social distancing and wearing a mask," he said. "We can't celebrate prematurely, because if everyone assumes the worst is behind us, that's when we'll see peaks again." YXM世界播

他说:“我们必须做我们知道是有效的事情--社交距离和戴口罩。”“我们不能过早庆祝,因为如果每个人都认为最糟糕的时候已经过去,我们就会再次见顶。”YXM世界播


And although models anticipate that deaths will continue to rise for several more weeks, it's possible to flatten the curve if people remain vigilant, Vespignani said. YXM世界播

Vespignani说,尽管模型预测死亡人数将在几周内继续上升,但如果人们保持警惕,曲线可能会变平。YXM世界播


"Every forecast is not a deterministic outcome," he said. "We can do something to change the trajectory." YXM世界播

“并不是每个预测都是确定性的结果,”他说。“我们可以做些什么来改变这一轨迹。”YXM世界播

© 2016 世界播 www.shijiebobao.com 中国互联网举报中心 京ICP证140141号 鄂ICP备18018000号-1
违法和不良信息举报: