2020-11-22 07:32

Dr. Sanjay Gupta: I won't be visiting with family this Thanksgiving. You shouldn't either. zJK世界播



Dr. Birx: Keep Thanksgiving to your immediate household zJK世界播


The country saw it after Memorial Day, the Fourth of July and Labor Day: spikes in Covid-19 cases in parts of the country a few weeks after Americans gathered with family and friends to celebrate. We were warned each time. zJK世界播


Some of us told ourselves that we were fatigued from the spring lockdown (true), the weather was finally warming up (true), we had done so well keeping infection rates from soaring during the summer (not really true -- we never even got them low enough to emerge from the so-called first wave). But, not surprisingly, the infection rates kept climbing. zJK世界播


The country is facing some of these same choices again as we quickly head into the trifecta of holidays: Thanksgiving, the December holidays (Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa), and New Year's Eve. zJK世界播


The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention updated its recommendations Thursday, to advise against Thanksgiving travel and gathering with people outside our own households. The big question: Have we learned the tough lessons? zJK世界播



CDC recommends against travel for Thanksgiving zJK世界播


Cindy McMahon, from Manasquan, New Jersey, was hoping her brother's family would be able to join her family of four, plus their 87-year-old mother, for Thanksgiving this year. zJK世界播

来自新泽西州马纳斯坎的辛迪·麦克马洪(Cindy McMahon)希望她哥哥的家人能和她一家四口以及87岁的母亲一起过今年的感恩节。zJK世界播

"Well, my brother and sister-in-law have been spending Thanksgiving elsewhere for a number of years, and they decided that this year they would like to change their routine and join us," she told me. zJK世界播


So McMahon and her sister-in-law hatched their plan back in August, when cases in New Jersey were under control. "They would join us and there would be nine of us for Thanksgiving," she said. zJK世界播


They had no idea how much things would change again over the next three months. zJK世界播


Laying the groundwork for winter zJK世界播


What McMahon, her family and the rest of us choose to do in the coming weeks will likely lay the groundwork for the pandemic's path during the long, cold days that follow this winter. zJK世界播


The sad truth is, we are in an even worse position than we were this summer: Prior to the earlier holidays, the trajectory of the pandemic was declining in at least some states. Currently, infection rates are rising in 44 states. zJK世界播



US seeing unprecedented coronavirus spread, White House says zJK世界播


For more than two weeks straight, the country has added more than 100,000 new coronavirus diagnoses every day. On Friday, the country tallied its highest number of Covid-19 cases: 195,542. By comparison, on Memorial Day, there were fewer than 20,000 daily new cases. zJK世界播


All told, the country is rapidly closing in on 12 million coronavirus cases and there have been more than 250,000 deaths. On Friday alone, more than 1,850 deaths were reported. Also on Friday, a record high number of hospitalizations due to Covid-19 -- 82,178 people -- according to the Covid Tracking Project. Hospitals in some states are overwhelmed; staff shortages due to illness are compounding the problem. zJK世界播

总体而言,该国正在迅速接近1200万例冠状病毒病例,死亡人数已超过25万人。仅在周五,就有超过1850人死亡的报道。同样在周五,根据Covid Tracking Project的数据,因新冠肺炎住院的人数创下历史新高--82,178人。一些州的医院不堪重负;由于疾病导致的员工短缺加剧了这个问题。zJK世界播

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington predicts that by the start of January, more than 2,000 people in the US will die every day from Covid-19 and that if behavior doesn't change, total US deaths could reach more than 471,000 by March 1. And it warns that hospital systems, particularly ICUs, are expected to be "under extreme stress in December and January in 18 states." zJK世界播


State after state is imposing new restrictions. And public health experts are sounding the alarm louder than before. zJK世界播


One of the biggest areas of concern: small, indoor household gatherings, like the ones most families typically plan this time of year. Let's face it. It is getting colder outside, which means most of the country will be spending time indoors. zJK世界播



Pfizer and BioNTech apply for FDA emergency use authorization for coronavirus vaccine zJK世界播


Also, when you are eating, you can't wear a mask. And, holiday dinners aren't quiet affairs, which means there is likely to be loud talking and maybe even singing, which is festive, but also a prescription for aerosolized virus. zJK世界播


And can you imagine not hugging or snuggling in close? Add a glass of wine into the equation, and physical distancing might go out the window. zJK世界播


It is why CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield specifically singled out the holidays when he spoke to the nation's governors a few weeks ago. "What we're seeing as the increasing threat right now is actually acquisition of infection through small household gatherings. And particularly with Thanksgiving coming up, we think it's really important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting," he told them. zJK世界播


And, that brings us back to Cindy McMahon. zJK世界播


For her part, McMahon started building a spreadsheet. "I started to think about it ... and that's what led me to create that spreadsheet. ... I really thought that I could figure out a way to make it work," she said. zJK世界播


She took what she knew of each family member -- their age and comorbidities, who they come into contact with, do they leave home for school or work, do they wear masks consistently, do the people they come into contact with wear masks consistently, what leisure activities do they participate in -- and into the spreadsheet it all went. zJK世界播


"I decided that I would fill in for each individual and see where that led and whether there was some way we could, in fact, be together, sitting across from each other at the dining room table ... enjoying our meal without our masks on. And that was my thought process. How can I make that happen again? How can we have a relatively normal Thanksgiving in anything but normal times?" she wondered. zJK世界播


The safest solution zJK世界播


It is true that some communities are safer than others, with lower levels of community spread, but overall, the country is widely infected at this point, and travel during holidays can turn any place into a hotspot. zJK世界播



Lines to get tested for coronavirus are growing long ahead of Thanksgiving and amid rising cases zJK世界播


That's why most public health officials, and the CDC will tell you the safest choice is to stay home and not gather in person with people outside your immediate household. Instead, do virtual gatherings with family members and friends. zJK世界播


You'll be in good company. The director of the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Francis Collins, said that for the first time in 27 years, his family will not be gathering for Thanksgiving. zJK世界播

你会有很好的伙伴。美国国立卫生研究院(National Institutes Of Health)院长弗朗西斯·柯林斯(Francis Collins)博士说,27年来,他的家人第一次不会聚在一起过感恩节。zJK世界播

"It is just not safe to take that kind of chance with people coming from different parts of the country of uncertain status. The problem with this disease is, it is so easy for people to be infected and not know it, and then spread it to the ones next to them without realizing it," he said during an NPR interview in October. zJK世界播


Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, said during a CNBC interview he and his family will forgo Thanksgiving this year, and hopes everyone will do the same. zJK世界播

美国食品和药物管理局(FDA)前局长斯科特·戈特利布(Scott Gottlieb)博士在接受CNBC采访时表示,他和家人今年将放弃感恩节,并希望每个人都能这么做。zJK世界播


Should you visit your family for the holidays? Here's Dr. Leana Wen's answer zJK世界播

你应该去看望你的家人过节吗?下面是Leana wen博士的答案zJK世界播

"We need to be getting through the next couple of months. This is the hardest point in this pandemic right now -- the next two months. We can't give up our guard right now," Gottlieb said, adding that we must think of the older individuals who are most at risk. zJK世界播


And, the same goes for me. Like Gottlieb, I have three daughters, and with my elderly parents living in a different state, this is usually the time of year when we get to see each other. zJK世界播


But this holiday season, our interactions will be on screens -- with promises and hopes that next year will be different. zJK世界播


Modifying traditions to limit risk zJK世界播


If you are going to attend or host a holiday gathering, the CDC recommends taking several precautions. Even though the weather is getting chilly in most parts of the country, an outdoor gathering is safer than an indoor one; worst of all is an indoor gathering without proper circulation. zJK世界播


If you are still considering having guests coming in from out of town, make sure to take into account the level of community spread at their location of origin. If they are coming from a place where the numbers are increasing and the test positivity rate is above 5-10%, it means an even greater risk. zJK世界播


Another step you should consider is protective self-quarantine before you gather. That means 14 days of no exposures and then a test at the end to make sure everyone is negative before coming together. But many places are seeing a surge in demand for tests, which could mean long waits and slower results. And even a negative test is no guarantee. zJK世界播


The same goes for college students returning home for the holidays. For infection-mitigation purposes, the CDC says they do not count as members of your household. zJK世界播


"People who have not been living in your household for the 14 days before you are celebrating should not be considered members of your household and so you should take those extra precautions, even wearing masks within your own home," Erin Sauber-Schatz, the CDC's lead for Community Intervention and Critical Population Task Force said during a telephone briefing Thursday. zJK世界播

美国疾病控制与预防中心社区干预和关键人口工作组负责人艾琳·索伯·沙茨(Erin Sauber-Schatz)在周四的一次电话吹风会上表示:“在你庆祝之前的14天内,没有住在你家里的人不应该被视为你的家庭成员,所以你应该采取这些额外的预防措施,即使是在你自己的家里也要戴口罩。”zJK世界播

Finally, the agency notes, the larger and the longer the gathering, the greater the risk, so try to keep gatherings as small and as short as possible. Limit the number of people handling the food. And even though it's a festive occasion, it's still important to maintain physical distance between guests from different households, to wear masks and to wash hands often. zJK世界播


Even if you think you and your guests are similarly strict and safety-minded, you need to talk about what that really means. zJK世界播


"I am finding over and over what one family believes is being very risk averse is not the same as another family describes being risk averse. So even though they sort of think, 'Oh, we're doing the same thing,' they're not," said Erin Bromage, an associate professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth and a CNN analyst. zJK世界播

马萨诸塞大学达特茅斯分校生物学副教授、CNN分析师艾琳·布罗马奇(Erin Bromage)说,“我一遍又一遍地发现,一个家庭认为非常厌恶风险的东西,与另一个家庭描述的厌恶风险不同。所以,尽管他们有点认为,‘哦,我们在做同样的事情’,但他们并不是这样的,”马萨诸塞大学达特茅斯分校生物学副教授、CNN分析师艾琳·布罗马奇(Erin Bromage)说。zJK世界播

These honest conversations are best done in advance of the holidays, so you can take the answers into consideration when planning. zJK世界播


For Cindy McMahon, the spreadsheet highlighted a host of problems. "At first I thought, 'Oh, I'm such a genius ... I think maybe I can make this work.' And then as you start filling in those columns, you're like --the feeling of dread --- no: there is no way that that I can make this happen," she said. zJK世界播

对于辛迪·麦克马洪(Cindy McMahon)来说,电子表格突显了一系列问题。她说:“一开始我想,‘哦,我真是个天才……我想也许我能做到这一点。’然后当你开始填写那些专栏时,你就像--恐惧的感觉-不:我不可能做到这一点,”她说。zJK世界播

She thought about having everyone get tested and then hunkering down before the visit, but realized it was unrealistic. "How could I expect that every family member would be able to stay in? My husband had to go to work and, you know, he's teaching in his school," she said. zJK世界播


"I tried to come up with solutions and it just all came back to 'Let's just be safe,'" she said, adding that her own mother "knew immediately it was never going to work." zJK世界播


McMahon said she struggled with the decision not to gather for Thanksgiving, but pragmatism beat out denial. zJK世界播


"I'm very sad. I love the holiday season. I can't even think ahead to Christmastime because I know I'll be crying my eyes out that we can't have our traditional [celebration] -- But you know what? That's OK. Right? Twists and turns in life anyhow, regardless of the virus. So, you just roll with it and keep cooking," she said. zJK世界播


And while she won't be making lemon pie out of the lemons we've all been dealt, she's still making pie. zJK世界播


"When we came to the conclusion that we could not gather together, that didn't mean that I'm not putting a turkey in the oven and that I'm not going to make all the traditional foods and ... three pies and all the goodies," she said. She plans to package up some servings and drop off the shopping bags at her mother's doorstep. zJK世界播


Hopefully there will be a lot of stories like McMahon's this holiday season. They are not stories of canceling our holidays, but of recognizing that it will have to be different this year. They are stories full of love, not because we got together this season, but because we sacrificed to keep each other safer. They are stories of physically distancing, but not socially isolating, because we need social connection more than ever. zJK世界播


Hopefully, they're stories of people reminding one another that we are truly in this together, and then rising to the moment by being kind to everyone around you. zJK世界播


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