白宫支持的呼吁群体豁免权的“大巴灵顿宣言”不仅会失败,还可能导致64万人死亡

2020-10-16 00:10

The White House-backed 'Great Barrington Declaration' calling for herd immunity wouldn't just fail — it could lead to 640,000 deaths dJa世界播

白宫支持的呼吁群体豁免权的“大巴灵顿宣言”不仅会失败,还可能导致64万人死亡dJa世界播


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A mostly mask-less crowd waiting to get into the BOK Center for a Trump rally on June 20, 2020. Michael B. Thomas/Getty Images dJa世界播

2020年6月20日,几乎没有戴面具的人群等待进入BOK中心参加特朗普的集会。迈克尔·B·托马斯/盖蒂图片公司dJa世界播


*The White House has propped up a document from a libertarian think tank called "The Great Barrington Declaration" this week. dJa世界播

*白宫本周撑起了一份来自自由意志主义智库的文件,名为《大巴灵顿宣言》(The Great Barrington宣言)。dJa世界播


*The declaration proposes an end to COVID-19 restrictions: allowing "those who are at minimal risk of death" to "live their lives normally" and get infected, in the hopes that the US and UK might develop herd immunity against the coronavirus. dJa世界播

*宣言建议结束对新冠肺炎的限制:允许“死亡风险最小的人”“正常生活”并被感染,希望美国和英国可能发展出对冠状病毒的群体免疫力。dJa世界播


*But that argument creates a false dichotomy between lockdowns and letting the virus spread unchecked. dJa世界播

*但这一论点在封锁和让病毒不受控制地传播之间制造了错误的二分法。dJa世界播


*One projection suggests attempting herd immunity could lead to 640,000 additional deaths by February 2023. dJa世界播

*一项预测表明,到2023年2月,试图进行群体免疫可能会导致额外64万人死亡。dJa世界播


*Thousands of other experts have also spoken out against the declaration, and on Wednesday they drafted their own counter-memo. dJa世界播

*数以千计的其他专家也公开反对这一声明,周三他们起草了自己的反备忘录。dJa世界播


The White House is applauding a new document drawn up earlier this month at a libertarian think tank in small-town Massachusetts, which falls neatly in line with the Trump Administration's own coronavirus plan: reopen, reopen, reopen. dJa世界播

白宫正在为本月早些时候在马萨诸塞州小镇的一家自由意志主义智库起草的一份新文件鼓掌,该文件与特朗普政府自己的冠状病毒计划完全一致:重新开放、重新开放、重新开放。dJa世界播


The letter,called the Great Barrington Declaration (named after the 7,000 person Massachusetts town where it was drafted) was written by three scientists from Oxford, Stanford, and Harvard Universities, who lament the effect of the pandemic — and strategies to mitigate it — on society. dJa世界播

这封信被称为《大巴灵顿宣言》(Great Barrington宣言)(以起草这封信的马萨诸塞州小镇7000人的名字命名)是由来自牛津大学、斯坦福大学和哈佛大学的三名科学家写的,他们哀叹这场流行病对社会的影响-以及缓解它的策略。dJa世界播


The declaration's bottom line: Most people should go out and live life as if the virus does not exist, while at the same time "better protecting those who are at highest risk" of dying or getting sick from the virus. (The document does not explicitly say how, exactly, they would go about protecting high-risk people from the virus. dJa世界播

宣言的底线是:大多数人应该走出去生活,就像病毒不存在一样,同时“更好地保护那些处于最高风险的人”,这些人可能会因病毒而死亡或生病。(文件没有明确说明他们将如何保护高危人群免受病毒感染。dJa世界播


The Barrington group calls this idea "focused protection," and it's one the White House has long touted. dJa世界播

巴灵顿小组称这一想法为“重点保护”,这是白宫长期以来一直吹捧的想法。dJa世界播


Many of the concerns in the declaration about the fallout from COVID-19 lockdowns are real, including "lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health." dJa世界播

宣言中对新冠肺炎禁闭后果的许多担忧是真实存在的,包括“儿童疫苗接种率下降,心血管疾病结局恶化,癌症筛查减少,精神健康状况恶化。”dJa世界播


But most public health experts around the world agree that the scientists' stated plan is both shortsighted and deadly. dJa世界播

但世界各地的大多数公共卫生专家都同意,科学家们宣布的计划既短视又致命。dJa世界播


The Infectious Diseases Society of America, an association of more than 12,000 disease scientists and doctors across the country, released a statement on Wednesday calling the Barrington plan "inappropriate, irresponsible and ill-informed." dJa世界播

周三,由全国1.2万多名疾病科学家和医生组成的协会-美国传染病协会(Infecous Disease Society Of America)发布了一份声明,称巴灵顿的计划“不合适、不负责任和消息灵通”。dJa世界播


There is no safe way to completely reopen every school and every business while properly shielding people from death and disease until you get the number of cases down in a population to very low levels, as South Korea has done, by testing, tracing, and distancing. Trying to circumvent that critical public health work — by instead letting people rush out and get infected — is an unprecedented public health strategy, and one that for this particular virus, would not work anyway. dJa世界播

没有一种安全的方法可以完全重新开放每所学校和每一家企业,同时适当地保护人们免受死亡和疾病的伤害,直到你像韩国那样,通过检测、追踪和疏远,将人口中的病例数量降到非常低的水平。试图绕过这项关键的公共卫生工作-取而代之的是让人们冲出去感染-是一种史无前例的公共卫生战略,而且对于这种特殊的病毒来说,无论如何都不会奏效。dJa世界播


The resulting "death toll would be enormous and totally unacceptable," Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,told actor Matthew McConaugheyin August. dJa世界播

美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长安东尼·福奇(Anthony Fuci)在8月份告诉演员马修·麦康纳(Matthew McConoke),由此造成的“死亡人数将是巨大的,完全不可接受的”。dJa世界播


Even with that reality on the table, nearly half a million names have signed onto the declaration, which has been translated into 22 languages. dJa世界播

尽管这一现实摆在桌面上,但已有近50万人在宣言上签名,该宣言已被翻译成22种语言。dJa世界播


Herd immunity isn't what the declaration says it is dJa世界播

羊群豁免权并不是宣言所说的那样。dJa世界播


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A clinical trial volunteer participates in Johnson & Johnson's study to test a coronavirus vaccine candidate Janssen dJa世界播

一名临床试验志愿者参与强生公司的研究,以测试一种冠状病毒候选疫苗JanssendJa世界播


Pursuing herd immunity to the coronavirus through natural infections is, in a word, impractical. dJa世界播

一句话,通过自然感染来追求对冠状病毒的群体免疫力是不切实际的。dJa世界播


About 0.5% of the world's population has been exposed to the virus so far. We have a long way to go to hit even some of the lowest posited herd immunity thresholds, which would require 50% (or more) of the population to be exposed. dJa世界播

到目前为止,全球约有0.5%的人口接触过该病毒。我们还有很长的路要走,甚至要达到一些假设的最低群体免疫力阈值,这将需要50%(或更多)的人口暴露。dJa世界播


But the Barrington declaration instead states that "the most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk." dJa世界播

但巴灵顿宣言却声明,“最具同情心的方法是平衡达到群体免疫的风险和好处,就是允许那些死亡风险最小的人正常生活,通过自然感染建立对病毒的免疫力,同时更好地保护那些处于最高风险的人。”dJa世界播


Public health experts largely agree that's not what herd immunity actually is. dJa世界播

公共卫生专家在很大程度上同意这并不是群体免疫的实际意义。dJa世界播


"Herd immunity is achieved by protecting people from a virus, not by exposing them to it," World Health Organization director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Monday. "Never in the history of public health has herd immunity been used as a strategy for responding to an outbreak, let alone a pandemic. It's scientifically and ethically problematic." dJa世界播

世界卫生组织总干事Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus周一表示:“牛群免疫是通过保护人们免受病毒感染而实现的,而不是让他们暴露在病毒之下。”“在公共卫生史上,羊群免疫从未被用作应对疫情的策略,更不用说大流行了。这在科学和伦理上都是有问题的。”dJa世界播


"Achieving herd immunity without a vaccine is a recipe for carnage," Gregg Gonsalves, anepidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health, tweeted Wednesday. dJa世界播

耶鲁大学公共卫生学院(Yale School Of Public Health)首席流行病学家格雷格·贡萨尔维斯(Gregg Gonsalves)周三在推特上写道:“在没有疫苗的情况下实现群体免疫是大屠杀的秘诀。”dJa世界播


It's something that health experts have stressed as being deadly and unethical: people are not herds of cattle to be culled in order to boost our collective immunity. Herd immunity is, instead, most often achieved by vaccinating a population. dJa世界播

健康专家强调,这是致命和不道德的:人不是为了提高我们的集体免疫力而被扑杀的牛群。取而代之的是,群体免疫力通常是通过给人群接种疫苗来实现的。dJa世界播


"I think we need to be really careful when we use terms in this way around natural infections in humans, because it can lead to a very brutal arithmetic which does not put people, and life, and suffering at the center of that equation," the WHO's Mike Ryan said in May. dJa世界播

世卫组织的迈克·瑞安(Mike Ryan)在5月份表示:“我认为,当我们以这种方式使用有关人类自然感染的术语时,我们需要非常小心,因为这可能会导致非常残酷的算术,而不是将人、生命和苦难放在等式的中心。”dJa世界播


A growing number of reinfection cases also suggest coronavirus immunity is not iron-clad. If we let the pandemic rage through unvaccinated populations like a wildfire, we could be staring down another five or six years like 2020 peppered with peaks, dips, and waves of deadly infections. dJa世界播

越来越多的再感染病例也表明冠状病毒免疫并不是铁板钉钉的。如果我们让大流行像野火一样在未接种疫苗的人群中肆虐,我们可能会像2020年那样再看五六年,其间充斥着致命感染的高峰、低谷和浪潮。dJa世界播


"Most people who are infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 develop an immune response within the first few weeks, but we don't know how strong or lasting that immune response is, or how it differs for different people," Tedros said. dJa世界播

特德罗斯说:“大多数感染了导致新冠肺炎的病毒的人在最初的几周内就会产生免疫反应,但我们不知道这种免疫反应有多强或多持久,也不知道不同的人有什么不同。”dJa世界播


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Healthcare workers move a patient in the Covid-19 Unit at United Memorial Medical Center in Houston, Texas Thursday, July 2, 2020. MARK FELIX/AFP via Getty Images dJa世界播

7月2日星期四,医护人员在德克萨斯州休斯敦联合纪念医疗中心的新冠肺炎病房转移一名病人。马克·费利克斯(Mark Felix)/法新社(AFP)通过Getty ImagesdJa世界播


The plan touted by the Great Barrington Declaration could result in 155 million new COVID-19 infections in the US dJa世界播

大巴灵顿宣言鼓吹的这项计划可能会导致美国新增1.55亿新冠肺炎感染者。dJa世界播


So far, more than 216,000 Americans have died from COVID-19, and 7.8 million — less than 3% of the country's population — have been infected. In order to reach some semblance of herd immunity through natural infections, the US could be staring down another 155 million cases, give or take. One projection suggests attempting herd immunity in the country would result in 640,000 deaths by February 2023. dJa世界播

到目前为止,已有超过216,000名美国人死于新冠肺炎,780万人-不到全国人口的3%-被感染。为了通过自然感染达到某种表面上的群体免疫力,美国可能会再盯着1.55亿个病例,或多或少。一项预测表明,到2023年2月,试图在该国进行群体免疫将导致64万人死亡。dJa世界播


"That's the reason why we're against saying, 'Let it fly. Let everybody get infected and we'll be fine.' That's a bad idea," Fauci said inAugust. dJa世界播

“这就是为什么我们反对说,‘让它飞吧。让每个人都被感染,我们就会没事。’这是一个坏主意,”福奇在8月初说。dJa世界播


What's more, the very nature of the coronavirus — which often spreads via silent, asymptomatic carriers and takes between two and 14 days to incubate, during which time people can unknowingly expose others to their infection — makes "shielding the vulnerable," as these declaration authors suggest, impossible. dJa世界播

更重要的是,冠状病毒的本质-它通常通过沉默的、无症状的携带者传播,需要2到14天的潜伏期,在此期间人们可能在不知不觉中将他人暴露于自己的感染-使得这些声明的作者所说的“保护弱势群体”是不可能的。dJa世界播


Young people who return to their pre-pandemic lives can't guarantee they won't bring the virus home to their parents, especially since some rapid COVID tests may only pick up about 70% to 80% of infections, and can produce false negatives. dJa世界播

回到大流行前生活的年轻人不能保证他们不会把病毒带回家给父母,特别是因为一些快速的COVID检测可能只检出大约70%到80%的感染,并可能产生假阴性。dJa世界播


Letting the virus run rampant, even amid younger populations who are, broadly speaking, at lower risk for severe cases, risks overwhelming our healthcare system. Lots of young Americans also have comorbidities like obesity and diabetes that put them athigher risk of developing severe cases. dJa世界播

让病毒肆虐,即使是在广义上严重病例风险较低的年轻人群中,也有可能使我们的医疗系统不堪重负。许多美国年轻人还患有肥胖症和糖尿病等共病,这使他们患严重病例的风险更高。dJa世界播


"We don't have a COVID-19 vaccine yet, nor a more general use antiviral treatment," virologist Julian Tang from the University of Leicester said in a criticism of the Barrington plan. "Without these anti-COVID-19 'tools', I cannot see how they will achieve this 'Focused Protection' for these vulnerable groups in any practical, reliable or safe way." dJa世界播

“我们还没有新冠肺炎疫苗,也没有更普遍使用的抗病毒治疗,”莱斯特大学的病毒学家朱利安·唐在批评巴灵顿计划时说。“没有这些反新冠肺炎的‘工具’,我看不出他们将如何以任何实用、可靠或安全的方式实现对这些弱势群体的这种‘重点保护’.”dJa世界播


One June study suggested the US's coronavirus restrictions prevented about 60 million infections from March 3 to April 6 alone. dJa世界播

6月份的一项研究表明,仅从3月3日到4月6日,美国的冠状病毒限制就阻止了大约6000万人感染。dJa世界播


We already have evidence already that letting the virus run amok in a society doesn't result in herd immunity. dJa世界播

我们已经有证据表明,让病毒在社会中肆意传播并不会导致群体免疫力。dJa世界播


At a recent Senate hearing, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul claimed New York City, which got gobsmacked by the US's first wave, controlled its outbreak by pursuing this strategy. dJa世界播

在最近的一次参议院听证会上,肯塔基州参议员兰德·保罗(Rand Paul)声称,被美国第一波浪潮震撼的纽约市通过推行这一战略控制了疫情的爆发。dJa世界播


But Dr. Fauci was quick to correct Paul in the hearing: "If you believe 22% is herd immunity, I believe you're alone in that." dJa世界播

但福奇博士很快就在听证会上纠正了保罗的错误:“如果你相信22%是群体免疫力,我相信你是唯一一个这样认为的人。”dJa世界播


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A coronavirus testing station in Seoul on August 26, 2020. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP via Getty Images dJa世界播

2020年8月26日,首尔的一个冠状病毒检测站。Jung Yeon-Je/法新社Getty Images报道dJa世界播


There are non-herd immunity strategies that would help the world get back to normal dJa世界播

有一些非群体免疫策略可以帮助世界恢复正常。dJa世界播


In the US, testing efforts have been slow, and even now, the rapid testing being rolled out in nursing homes across the country is so riddled with errors that some states are pushing to halt it altogether. dJa世界播

在美国,测试工作一直很缓慢,即使是现在,全国各地疗养院正在推出的快速测试也充斥着错误,以至于一些州正在推动完全停止这项测试。dJa世界播


The country hasn't yet pursued the tried and true virus-fighting strategies that many other countries have used successfully: widespread testing, contact tracing, and universal mask-wearing. dJa世界播

这个国家还没有推行许多其他国家已经成功使用的久经考验的真正的病毒抗击策略:广泛的检测、接触者追踪和普遍戴口罩。dJa世界播


The Barrington authors have embraced a false dichotomy that lets our public health system off the hook. Controlling the pandemic isn't a choice between "lockdowns" and letting the virus rage to achieve herd immunity. dJa世界播

巴灵顿的作者接受了一种错误的二分法,让我们的公共卫生系统摆脱了困境。控制大流行并不是在“封锁”和任由病毒肆虐来实现群体免疫力之间的选择。dJa世界播


Countries that crushed the virus, like South Korea and New Zealand, didn't pursue either of those strategies. They tested, contact traced, and shared information with their citizens that helped those citizens minimize the outbreak. dJa世界播

像韩国和新西兰这样粉碎病毒的国家,没有采取这些策略中的任何一种。他们进行检测,追踪接触者,并与他们的公民分享信息,帮助这些公民将疫情降至最低。dJa世界播


"We've got to get a testing regime and a contact tracing regime in place, we've got to get the PPE available, and widespread, and we did none of that — and that's the problem," public health expert Ezekiel Emanuel told Insider, after he published a research letter in the medical journal JAMA earlier this week showing how inferior the public health response to the virus was in the US compared to many other rich countries. dJa世界播

本周早些时候,公共卫生专家伊齐基尔·伊曼纽尔(Ezekiel Emanuel)在医学杂志“美国医学会杂志”(JAMA)上发表了一封研究信,显示与其他许多富裕国家相比,美国对埃博拉病毒的公共卫生反应是多么糟糕。之后,公共卫生专家伊齐基尔·伊曼纽尔(Ezekiel Emanuel)告诉Insider:“我们必须建立一个检测制度和接触者追踪制度,我们必须让个人防护设备(PPE)可用,而且要广泛使用,但我们没有做到这一点--这就是问题所在。”dJa世界播


"Schools can open, and lots of other things can happen when the transmission rate is very, very low," he said. "And that's what we failed to do." dJa世界播

“学校可以开学,当传播率非常、非常低时,可能会发生许多其他事情,”他说。“而这正是我们没能做到的。”dJa世界播


The scientists who wrote the declaration haven't published any peer-reviewed studies about COVID-19 dJa世界播

撰写宣言的科学家还没有发表任何关于新冠肺炎的同行评议研究dJa世界播


The Barrington writers met at the libertarian-minded American Institute for Economic Research think tank in early October to draft the document, which has since amassed hundreds of thousands of signatures (including some dubious signers, such as Dr. I.P. Freely, Dr. Person Fakename, and Dr. Johnny Bananas, as Sky News reported.) dJa世界播

10月初,巴灵顿的作者们在具有自由意志主义思想的智库美国经济研究所(American Institute For Economic Research)会面,起草了这份文件。自那以后,文件已经积累了数十万个签名(据天空新闻(Sky News)报道,其中包括一些可疑的签名者,比如I.P.Frely博士、Person Fakename博士和约翰尼·巴纳纳斯博士(Dr.Johnny Bananas)。)。dJa世界播


The three writers all hail from prestigious universities. Even so, none of these health policy experts — Martin Kulldorff (Harvard University), Sunetra Gupta (University of Oxford), and Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford University) — have published any peer-reviewed studies about the coronavirus. dJa世界播

这三位作家都来自名牌大学。即便如此,这些卫生政策专家--马丁·库尔多夫(哈佛大学)、苏内特拉·古普塔(牛津大学)和杰伊·巴塔查里亚(斯坦福大学)--都没有发表过任何关于冠状病毒的同行评议研究。dJa世界播


Bhattacharya did, however, co-author a pre-print (preliminary research that has not been vetted by other scientists), study in April that used antibody testing to conclude a majority of California COVID-19 cases had gone unreported. Bhattacharya's wife recruited participants for that study via an email that falsely claimed an "FDA approved" test would tell them if they were immune and could "return to work without fear," BuzzFeed Newsreported. dJa世界播

然而,巴塔查里亚确实与人合著了一份预印本(没有经过其他科学家审查的初步研究),这项研究是在4月份进行的,研究使用抗体测试得出结论,加州大多数新冠肺炎病例都没有报告。据BuzzFeed News报道,Bhattacharya的妻子通过一封电子邮件招募了这项研究的参与者,该电子邮件错误地声称,一项“FDA批准”的测试将告诉他们是否具有免疫力,可以“无畏地重返工作岗位”。dJa世界播


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Left to right: Martin Kulldorff, Sunetra Gupta, and Jay Bhattacharya at the American Institute for Economic Research, Great Barrington, MA. Taleed Brown/Wikimedia Commons dJa世界播

从左至右:马萨诸塞州大巴灵顿美国经济研究所的马丁·库尔多夫、苏内特拉·古普塔和杰伊·巴塔查里亚。Taleed Brown/Wikimedia CommonsdJa世界播


Perhaps the greatest testament to how strongly public health experts condemn The Great Barrington Declaration is that they have taken the time to write a whole separate document, The John Snow Memorandum, published in leading medical journal The Lancet on Wednesday. Already, nearly 600 top-tier scientists, virologists, vaccine experts, medics, researchers, disease modelers, and public health professors have added their names to that memo. dJa世界播

或许,公共卫生专家对大巴灵顿宣言的强烈谴责最好的证明是,他们花了时间写了一份完整的文件-约翰·斯诺备忘录(John Snow Memory),周三发表在领先的医学杂志《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)上。已经有近600名顶级科学家、病毒学家、疫苗专家、医务人员、研究人员、疾病模型师和公共卫生教授在备忘录中加入了他们的名字。dJa世界播


"The evidence is very clear," the memo says. "Controlling community spread of COVID-19 is the best way to protect our societies and economies until safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics arrive within the coming months." dJa世界播

“证据非常清楚,”备忘录说。“控制新冠肺炎的社区传播是保护我们的社会和经济的最好方式,直到安全有效的疫苗和治疗药物在未来几个月内到达。”dJa世界播

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