伊朗股市繁荣,但分析师担心泡沫愈演愈烈

2020-05-17 16:06

Iran stock market booms, but analysts fear a growing bubble
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伊朗股市繁荣,但分析师担心泡沫愈演愈烈
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TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Even as U.S. sanctions, unemployment, inflation and low oil prices batter the Iranian economy, there seems to be at least one refuge for investors.fMo世界播

伊朗德黑兰(美联社)-即使美国的制裁、失业、通胀和低油价重创伊朗经济,投资者似乎至少有一个避难所。fMo世界播


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The Tehran Stock Exchange has seen gains of 225% in the last year, with sharp increases even as the country struggled with one of the first serious coronavirus outbreaks outside of China.fMo世界播

德黑兰证券交易所去年上涨了225%,尽管该国正在努力应对中国以外首批严重的冠状病毒爆发之一,但涨幅仍然很大。fMo世界播


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Encouraged by a government eager to privatize state-owned firms, average people now have access to the market and can trade shares, earning returns they'd never see in a savings account or a certificate of deposit.fMo世界播

在政府急于将国有企业私有化的鼓励下,普通人现在可以进入市场,可以交易股票,赚取他们在储蓄账户或存单上看不到的回报。fMo世界播


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But these rapid gains increasingly have analysts and experts worried about a growing stock market bubble, one that could be particularly dire and wipe away the earnings of the average people flooding into the market.fMo世界播

但这些快速上涨让分析师和专家越来越担心股市泡沫会越来越大,这种泡沫可能会特别可怕,并抹去涌入市场的普通人的收入。fMo世界播


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Global stock markets have seen rapid swings amid the coronavirus pandemic.The crisis has sent U.S. unemployment surging to 14.7%, a level last seen during the Great Depression.Benchmark Brent crude prices, trading over $70 a barrel a year ago, now hovers just over $20 a barrel as demand collapses amid an oversupplied market.fMo世界播

在冠状病毒大流行期间,全球股市出现了快速波动。这场危机导致美国失业率飙升至14.7%,上一次出现在大萧条时期。基准布伦特原油价格一年前超过每桶70美元,现在徘徊在每桶略高于20美元,因为市场供过于求导致需求崩溃。fMo世界播


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But that hasn't slowed in the Tehran Stock Exchange.Founded in 1967, the market lists some 1,000 companies, including major firms like car manufacturer Iran Khodro.The bourse now has a market cap of more than $200 billion.And its daily 5% gains haven't gone unnoticed by ordinary Iranians.fMo世界播

但在德黑兰证券交易所,这一趋势并未放缓。该市场成立于1967年,列出了大约1000家公司,其中包括汽车制造商伊朗Khodro等大公司。该交易所目前的市值超过2000亿美元。而且其每日5%的涨幅并没有被普通伊朗人忽视。fMo世界播


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“I visited the related office for several days to receive my Sejam code to get able to trade,” said Mohammad Reza Mansouri, who makes deliveries using his personal van.“The office was crowded with people like me.”fMo世界播

穆罕默德·礼萨·曼苏里(Mohammad Reza Mansouri)用他的私人面包车送货,他说:“我访问了相关办公室几天,收到了我的Sejam代码,以便能够进行交易。”“办公室里挤满了像我这样的人。”fMo世界播


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The exchange lists a half-million active traders out of some 12 million people who registered to buy and sell stocks.fMo世界播

在大约1200万注册买卖股票的人中,该交易所列出了50万活跃交易员。fMo世界播


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“An everyday 5% percent is very sexy,” said Abdollah Rahmani, a retired bank employee who trades stocks.”What other market makes such a profit?”fMo世界播

“每天5%是非常性感的,”阿布多拉·拉赫马尼(Abdollah Rahmani)说,他是一名从事股票交易的退休银行员工。“还有什么市场能获得如此丰厚的利润呢?”fMo世界播


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Even President Hassan Rouhani, beleaguered since U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from his 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, has pointed to the market as a rare bright spot for the country.Iran's rial currency has fallen to 160,000 to 1 against the U.S. dollar, as opposed to the 35,000 to $1 in 2015.fMo世界播

就连自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)单方面退出2015年美国与世界大国的核协议以来一直四面楚歌的总统哈桑·鲁哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)也指出,市场是该国难得的亮点。伊朗里亚尔货币兑美元汇率已跌至16万比1,而2015年时为3.5万比1美元。fMo世界播


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“As Iran’s bourse has developed, (our enemies) become nervous and asked why the market is developing while markets in the world are in chaos,” Rouhani said at a Cabinet meeting last month.This rise "is because of efforts by all companies, business people and fortunately offering shares of big companies to the stock market.”fMo世界播

鲁哈尼在上个月的一次内阁会议上说:“随着伊朗证券交易所的发展,(我们的敌人)变得紧张起来,并询问为什么市场在发展,而世界市场却一片混乱。”这一涨势“得益于所有公司、商界人士的努力,幸运的是大公司股票上市”。fMo世界播


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The stock market rise in part takes root in how Iran's economy has changed in the decades since its 1979 Islamic Revolution.Immediately after taking power, Iran's Shiite theocracy seized large private industries, putting them in large trusts, or bonyads.The bloody 1980s war with Iraq saw Iran further nationalize its economy.fMo世界播

股市上涨在一定程度上植根于伊朗自1979年伊斯兰革命以来几十年来经济的变化。伊朗什叶派神权统治在掌权后立即夺取了大型私营企业,将它们置于大型信托基金(Bonyad)之中。20世纪80年代与伊拉克的血腥战争见证了伊朗进一步国有化其经济。fMo世界播


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In the 1990s, Iran began a privatization effort.The stock market became one way to accomplish this, with former hard-line populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad giving out so-called “Justice Shares” in firms to the poor.Some 50 million Iranians now hold those shares.fMo世界播

在20世纪90年代,伊朗开始了私有化努力。股票市场成为实现这一目标的一种方式,前强硬派民粹主义总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪-内贾德(Mahmoud Ahmadinejad)向穷人发放了所谓的公司“正义股份”。现在约有5000万伊朗人持有这些股份。fMo世界播


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But Ahmadinejad's efforts at privatization also saw firms sold off to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and its allies, further empowering the hard-line force answerable only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Some firms that moved into private ownership have seen the businesses stripped and later collapse, leaving workers without pensions and fueling sporadic protests.fMo世界播

但艾哈迈迪内贾德在私有化方面的努力也导致公司出售给准军事革命卫队及其盟友,进一步增强了只向最高领导人哈梅内伊负责的强硬派力量。一些进入私有制的公司看到企业被剥离,后来倒闭,导致工人没有养老金,并引发了零星的抗议活动。fMo世界播


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Lower returns in other investments also are sending people to the stock market.fMo世界播

其他投资的较低回报也将人们送到股市。fMo世界播


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“The rise in liquidity in Iran’s financial market has made people expect high inflation in future," said Reza Khanaki, a Tehran-based financial analyst and manager. “Their bank deposits are yielding profits less than the inflation rate, and so they are shifting their investments to the stock market. This change is causing the rise in the index.”fMo世界播

“伊朗金融市场流动性上升,让人们预期未来通胀会很高,”驻德黑兰的金融分析师兼经理Reza Khanaki说,“他们的银行存款收益低于通胀率,因此他们正将投资转向股市.这一变化正在导致指数上涨.”--Reza Khanaki是驻德黑兰的金融分析师兼经理,他说,“他们的银行存款收益低于通胀率,因此他们正将投资转向股市.这一变化正在导致指数上涨.”fMo世界播


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Squeezed by U.S. sanctions, Rouhani's government hopes to raise money through selling assets on the exchange.His government in January also allowed firms to recalculate their values, something critics warn masks the true worth of their production by instead inflating the price of land they own, for instance.fMo世界播

受到美国制裁的挤压,鲁哈尼政府希望通过在交易所出售资产来筹集资金。他的政府在1月份还允许公司重新计算它们的价值,批评人士警告说,这掩盖了它们生产的真正价值,例如,它夸大了它们拥有的土地的价格。fMo世界播


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“The Iranian financial press as well as foreign economists have raised concerns that the meteoric rise of the market is detached from the underlying value of the assets traded there and that bubbles have formed,” said Henry Rome, an analyst at the Eurasia Group.“The government’s decision to focus privatization attention on the market has elevated these risks.A loss of confidence in the market could lead to a destabilizing crash.”fMo世界播

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)分析师亨利·罗马(Henry Roman)说,“伊朗财经媒体和外国经济学家都提出了担忧,认为市场的迅速上涨与那里交易的资产的潜在价值脱节,泡沫已经形成。”“政府决定将私有化注意力集中在市场上,提升了这些风险。对市场失去信心可能导致破坏稳定的崩盘。“fMo世界播


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Iranian political analyst Akbar Mokhtari warns it could be even worse, comparing the “Justice Shares” to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's so-called “White Revolution” in the 1960s that broke up the control of feudal land barons and saw the poor rush into cities.Those poor became the backbone of the protests that later drove him from power.fMo世界播

伊朗政治分析人士阿克巴尔·莫赫塔里(Akbar Mokhtari)警告说,情况可能更糟,他将“正义份额”与20世纪60年代沙阿·穆罕默德·礼萨·巴列维(Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi)的所谓“白色革命”相提并论,那次革命打破了封建土地大亨的控制,导致穷人涌入城市。这些穷人成为后来将他赶下台的抗议活动的中坚力量。fMo世界播


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“The other side of this very important economic development can be the impatience of shareholders about possible crashes that can cause instability in the government,” he was quoted as saying by Rahbord, an Iranian political review channel on Telegram.fMo世界播

“这一非常重要的经济发展的另一面可能是股东对可能导致政府不稳定的崩盘感到不耐烦,”Telegram的伊朗政治评论频道Rahbord援引他的话称.。fMo世界播


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Already, the exchange has seen some stumbles.On Saturday, the market closed at 987,475 points, down some 60,300 points compared to last Monday, when it reached a record high of over 1 million points.fMo世界播

该交易所已经出现了一些挫折。周六,股市收于987,475点,与上周一创下的100多万点的历史新高相比,下跌了约60,300点。fMo世界播


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But some, like Mansouri, the stock-trading deliveryman, say those fears don't bother them.fMo世界播

但一些人,如股票交易送货员曼苏里(Mansouri)说,这些担忧并不困扰他们。fMo世界播


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“I do not care about the analysis as long as I profit day by day," he said.fMo世界播

“我不在乎分析,只要我一天比一天盈利,”他说。fMo世界播


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Associated Press journalists Mehdi Fattahi in Tehran, Iran, and Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed.fMo世界播

美联社记者迈赫迪·法塔希(Mehdi Fattahi)在伊朗德黑兰和乔恩·甘布雷尔(Jon Gambrell)在阿拉伯联合酋长国迪拜也有贡献。fMo世界播

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