支持特朗普否认状态的世界领导人

2020-11-19 08:02

The World Leader Backing Trump’s State of Denial QYc世界播

支持特朗普否认状态的世界领导人QYc世界播


暂无QYc世界播


In the days since Joe Biden cemented victory, congratulations have poured in from around the world, with American allies and rivals acknowledging the result of the election, even as Donald Trump has refused to concede and peddled baseless claims of voter fraud. QYc世界播

在乔·拜登(Joe Biden)巩固胜利后的几天里,来自世界各地的祝贺蜂拥而至,美国的盟友和竞争对手都承认了选举结果,尽管唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)拒绝让步,并兜售毫无根据的选民欺诈指控。QYc世界播


Not every world leader has recognized Biden as U.S. president-elect, though. QYc世界播

然而,并不是每一位世界领导人都承认拜登是美国当选总统。QYc世界播


“I can’t congratulate one candidate or the other. I want to wait until the electoral process is over,” Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said on November 7, the day Biden’s victory was confirmed. López Obrador doubled down in the days after, saying his government does not “favor any party in the United States … Why should we act recklessly? Why don’t we just wait?” QYc世界播

他说:“我不能祝贺两位候选人中的任何一位。我想等到选举过程结束。“墨西哥总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥布拉多(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)在11月7日,也就是拜登胜选确认的那一天表示。洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)在接下来的几天里加倍下注,称他的政府“不偏袒美国的任何政党”(…。我们为什么要鲁莽行事?我们为什么不等一等呢?“。QYc世界播


American politicians and Mexican media have lambasted López Obrador over the position: Democrats in Congress called it a grave mistake (“a stunning diplomatic failure,” said Representative Joaquin Castro of Texas, who is vying to lead the House Foreign Relations Committee), political commentators in Mexico pronounced it a serious blow to the country’s future standing with the Biden administration, and the American press has been quick to tie López Obrador’s actions to his coziness with Trump—and highlight Mexico sharing a stance with Brazil, Russia, and North Korea, all of which have yet to recognize Biden’s win. QYc世界播

美国政界人士和墨西哥媒体抨击了洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)的立场:国会中的民主党人称这是一个严重的错误(正在角逐众议院外交关系委员会(House Foreign Relations Committee)主席的德克萨斯州众议员华金·卡斯特罗(Joaquin Castro)说,这是一个令人震惊的外交失败),墨西哥的政治评论员称这是对该国未来在拜登政府中地位的严重打击,美国媒体也迅速将洛佩斯·奥布拉多的行为与他与特朗普的亲密关系联系在一起--并强调了墨西哥的共同立场。QYc世界播


López Obrador has continued to dig in, pinning his decision on the Mexican constitution’s foreign-policy principles of nonintervention and national sovereignty, and declaring that his country is not a “colony” or a “wimp” that nations can bully. But his most telling justification came when he drew parallels to a previous controversial election: his own narrow 2006 loss to Felipe Calderón in a hotly contested vote, one in which foreign governments, including the U.S., recognized Calderón as Mexico’s president-elect before López Obrador had conceded. The legacy of that vote doesn’t just continue to affect Mexican politics—it offers lessons for American democracy as well. QYc世界播

洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)继续坚守立场,将他的决定归咎于墨西哥宪法的不干涉和国家主权的外交政策原则,并宣称他的国家不是国家可以欺负的“殖民地”或“懦夫”。但他最有说服力的理由出现在他将自己与之前一次有争议的选举相提并论的时候:他在2006年的一次激烈竞争中以微弱劣势输给了费利佩·卡尔德龙(Felipe Calderón),在那次投票中,包括美国在内的外国政府在洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)承认之前承认卡尔德龙为墨西哥当选总统。那次投票的遗产不仅继续影响着墨西哥的政治,也为美国的民主提供了教训。QYc世界播


López Obrador’s remarks in recent days—which notably have not made mention of his own efforts to delegitimize the results of presidential elections he lost—point to a pattern of authoritarian and populist leaders refusing to concede power when votes don’t go their way. Ruling politicians in Bolivia, Honduras, Nicaragua, Turkey, and Ukraine have tried to undermine other branches of government to consolidate power and dispatch with electoral challengers. QYc世界播

洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)最近几天的言论指出,威权和民粹主义领导人在选票不顺的情况下拒绝交出权力的模式。值得注意的是,奥布拉多没有提到他自己试图使他输掉的总统选举结果合法化的努力。玻利维亚、洪都拉斯、尼加拉瓜、土耳其和乌克兰的执政政客试图削弱其他政府部门,以巩固权力并与选举挑战者打交道。QYc世界播


The Mexican leader’s subsequent success, however, also highlights a deeper challenge for the loser in an election: Crying foul, whether or not there is evidence of fraud or illegitimacy, may erode a country’s democracy by calling into question the very processes through which its leaders are chosen, but it nevertheless confers a short-term tactical advantage by galvanizing supporters and drawing in resources for future campaigns. QYc世界播

然而,这位墨西哥领导人随后的成功也突显了选举失败者面临的一个更深层次的挑战:叫嚣着犯规,无论是否有舞弊或非法的证据,都可能会侵蚀一个国家的民主,因为它会质疑一个国家领导人的产生过程,但它仍然会带来短期的战术优势,因为它可以激励支持者,并为未来的竞选活动吸引资源。QYc世界播


“There is, clearly, likely from López Obrador himself, that sense of I know what it’s like to be in a situation where I want to challenge electoral results, and that the U.S. president also should have that right be respected, and we will respect that,” Maureen Meyer, the director for Mexico and migrant rights at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research organization, told me. QYc世界播

研究机构华盛顿拉丁美洲办公室(Washington Office on拉丁美洲)负责墨西哥和移民权利的主任莫琳·迈耶(Maureen Meyer)告诉我,“很明显,洛佩斯·奥布拉多本人有一种感觉,那就是我知道自己想要挑战选举结果是什么感觉,美国总统也应该享有这种权利得到尊重,我们会尊重这一点,”华盛顿拉丁美洲办事处(Washington Office on拉丁美洲)的墨西哥和移民权利主任莫琳·迈耶(Maureen Meyer)对我说。QYc世界播


In Mexico’s 2006 presidential election, the country’s most controversial since it became a modern democracy in 2000, López Obrador—who had built up popular support while serving as Mexico City’s mayor and from sparring with then-President Vicente Fox Quesada—rode populist momentum to emerge as the favorite to take the presidency. QYc世界播

在墨西哥2006年的总统选举中,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)利用民粹主义势头成为最有希望当选总统的人。这是该国自2000年成为现代民主国家以来最具争议性的一次选举。奥布拉多在担任墨西哥城市长期间以及与时任总统维森特·福克斯·奎萨达(Vicente Fox Quesada)的争执中建立了民众支持。QYc世界播


As the campaign neared its end, however, López Obrador’s railing against the political elite veered into more conspiratorial thinking, and he raised the specter of electoral fraud and election rigging. When the votes were counted, Mexico’s federal election commission initially found the race too close to call, before eventually naming Calderón the winner a few days later—by a margin of just 0.58 percent. López Obrador demanded a recount, organized a massive sit-in of the capital’s main promenade and public square, and called the whole process “old-school fraud.” QYc世界播

然而,随着竞选接近尾声,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)对政治精英的抨击转向了更具阴谋论的思维,他引发了选举舞弊和选举舞弊的幽灵。在计票时,墨西哥联邦选举委员会最初发现这场竞选势均力敌,几天后最终宣布卡尔德龙获胜--仅以0.58%的优势获胜。洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)要求重新计票,在首都的主要长廊和公共广场组织了大规模静坐,并称整个过程是“老式的欺诈”。QYc世界播


After initially saying that he would respect the election commission’s review of the vote, López Obrador rejected its conclusion that he had lost and accelerated a campaign to delegitimize Calderón, his new government, and the institutions holding Mexico’s young democracy together. Despite losing, López Obrador declared himself Mexico’s “legitimate president,” derided the courts and electoral authorities in public speeches, appointed his own “cabinet,” and ultimately held his own inauguration in Mexico City—with significant popular support through it all. His allies in the Mexican legislature rejected Calderón’s legitimacy, and Calderón’s own inauguration lasted just five minutes. Calderón’s party members had to occupy the dais of the Mexican Congress to ensure that he could even enter the chamber and be sworn in, and he was rushed out of the building afterward to avoid the sporadic brawls that were breaking out at the time. Even after he was officially ensconced in office, Calderón never fully gained a political mandate: López Obrador and a coalition of opposition parties succeeded in obstructing many of his early initiatives, hamstringing the new president. QYc世界播

洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)最初表示,他将尊重选举委员会对投票结果的审查,但他否认了选举委员会的结论,即他已经失败,并加快了一场运动,使卡尔德龙、他的新政府,以及将墨西哥年轻的民主制度凝聚在一起的机构失去合法性。尽管落败,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)仍宣称自己是墨西哥的“合法总统”,在公开演讲中嘲笑法院和选举当局,任命自己的“内阁”,并最终在墨西哥城举行了自己的就职典礼--这一切都得到了广泛的民众支持。他在墨西哥立法机构的盟友拒绝了卡尔德龙的合法性,卡尔德龙自己的就职典礼只持续了五分钟。卡尔德龙的政党成员不得不占领墨西哥国会的讲台,以确保他甚至可以进入会议厅并宣誓就职,之后他被赶出大楼,以避免当时爆发的零星斗殴。即使在卡尔德龙正式就任后,他也从未完全获得政治授权:洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)和一个反对党联盟成功地阻挠了他早期的许多倡议,阻碍了这位新总统的发展。QYc世界播


Refusing to concede an election leaves serious and lasting damage to a nation’s ability to believe in the integrity of its electoral process, erodes trust in its institutions, and disempowers reformers, Arturo Sarukhán, the Mexican ambassador to the U.S. during Calderón’s presidency, told me. “The first collateral damage [from López Obrador’s refusal to concede] was the electoral authority, and the second one was the credibility of the media,” he said. “You see some similarities between what happened … in Mexico and what has happened these past four years in the United States, and what could happen in the following months, particularly as Trump continues to say the current election has been stolen from him.” QYc世界播

卡尔德龙担任总统期间担任墨西哥驻美大使的阿图罗·萨鲁肯(Arturo Sarukhán)告诉我,拒绝承认选举会严重而持久地损害一个国家相信其选举过程的公正性的能力,侵蚀人们对其制度的信任,并使改革者丧失权力。他说:“(洛佩斯·奥布拉多拒绝承认)第一个附带损害是选举当局,第二个是媒体的公信力。”“你可以看到…所发生的事情有一些相似之处。墨西哥和美国过去四年发生的事情,以及未来几个月可能发生的事情,特别是在特朗普继续说当前的选举被窃取的情况下。“。QYc世界播


In 2012, López Obrador again ran for president. This time, he lost by a larger margin, but went on to organize new protests, and again refused to concede. Afterward, he blamed political elites, the media, former presidents, and voter fraud for his loss. “Being out there as a shadow for so long, continuing to undermine institutions, challenging the integrity of the processes—it did do some damage” to Mexico’s democracy, Antonio Garza, the U.S. ambassador to Mexico under George W. Bush, told me about López Obrador. “You have to ask yourself, if Trump does the same thing—and this is the start of it right now, in terms of challenging the elections—if he maintains that presence, and still has the ability to bend officeholders to his will once he’s out of government … how much more institutional deterioration we’ll see in the United States.” QYc世界播

2012年,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)再次竞选总统。这一次,他以更大的优势落败,但继续组织新的抗议活动,并再次拒绝让步。之后,他指责政治精英、媒体、前总统和选民欺诈造成了他的失败。乔治·W·布什(George W.Bush)时期的美国驻墨西哥大使安东尼奥·加尔扎(Antonio Garza)告诉我,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)“作为影子存在了这么长时间,继续破坏机构,挑战程序的完整性--这确实对墨西哥的民主造成了一些损害”。“你必须问问自己,特朗普是否会做同样的事情--就挑战选举而言,这是现在的开始--如果他保持这种存在,并在他退出政府后仍有能力让官员屈从于他的意愿(…),那你就必须问自己,特朗普是否也在做同样的事情--就挑战选举而言,这是现在的开始。”我们将在美国看到更多的制度恶化。“。QYc世界播


López Obrador represents a warning, and, in a similar fashion, so do other Latin American countries: Leaders such as Juan Orlando Hernández in Honduras, Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua have shown how an incumbent can hold fast to power, while Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, and Guatemala are examples of places where political elites can manufacture impeachments or disqualify candidates from running for office. (Of course, the U.S. itself has long played a major role in undermining elections across the region.) QYc世界播

洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)代表了一个警告,其他拉美国家也是如此:洪都拉斯的胡安·奥兰多·埃尔南德斯(Juan Orlando Hernández)、委内瑞拉的尼古拉斯·马杜罗(Nicolás Maduro)和尼加拉瓜的丹尼尔·奥尔特加(Daniel Ortega)等领导人展示了现任总统如何牢牢掌握权力,而巴西、秘鲁、玻利维亚和危地马拉是政治精英制造弹劾或取消候选人竞选资格的例子。(当然,美国自己长期以来在破坏整个地区的选举方面发挥了重要作用。)。QYc世界播


Latin America illustrates “what happens when you don’t have the right systems in place, and you don’t have citizens’ trust or politicians’ trust in their own systems, and how destabilizing that can be on the population,” Meyer said. QYc世界播

迈耶说,拉丁美洲说明了“当你没有正确的制度,没有公民或政客对他们自己的制度的信任时会发生什么,以及这会对人民造成多么不稳定的影响。”QYc世界播


There are ways to fix all of this. One easy solution? Facilitate the work of international observers in the U.S., who can lend nonpartisan legitimacy to elections and recounts and publicize their findings. Other, longer-term changes include reforms to encourage universal voter participation—whether in person or by mail—and efforts to make elections more transparent by educating the public about how states run them. The United States’ lack of a central election authority or uniform way to run voting also presents larger challenges, contributing to questions and confusion about vote tallies and election results. QYc世界播

有办法解决这一切。一个简单的解决方案?促进国际观察员在美国的工作,他们可以为选举和重新计票提供无党派合法性,并公布他们的调查结果。其他更长期的变化包括鼓励全民参与的改革-无论是面对面的还是通过邮寄的-以及努力通过教育公众了解各州如何管理选举来提高选举的透明度。美国缺乏中央选举当局或统一的投票方式也带来了更大的挑战,导致人们对计票和选举结果产生质疑和困惑。QYc世界播


But even if systems are changed, if populations are more informed and more trusting about how votes are counted, and faith in institutions is restored, a core tenet of elections will remain: Losers have to admit that they lost. That was not the case in Mexico in 2006, and it is not the case in the U.S. today. QYc世界播

但是,即使制度改变了,如果民众对如何计票有了更多的了解和信任,对制度的信心也恢复了,选举的一个核心原则也将保持不变:失败者必须承认他们输了。2006年的墨西哥不是这样,今天的美国也不是这样。QYc世界播


David Frum: There is no Trumpism without Trump QYc世界播

大卫·弗鲁姆:没有特朗普就没有特朗普。QYc世界播


And in this way, too, López Obrador’s experience highlights the tensions inherent in the implicit requirement of democracies that losers concede: He didn’t admit defeat, and, in the end, he was more successful for it. QYc世界播

在这种情况下,洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)的经历也突显了民主制度内在的紧张关系--失败者必须承认这一点:他不承认失败,最终,他更成功了。QYc世界播


His two unsuccessful campaigns for president, and his insistence both times that victory had been wrongfully taken from him, sowed the seeds for a third and eventually successful bid. In 2018, capitalizing on disillusionment that the Mexican people felt toward the political establishment—fueled in no small part by López Obrador’s own complaints—he finally won. This time, he was even able to relitigate the 2006 election by running against Calderón’s wife and his rival party’s new leader, Ricardo Anaya. QYc世界播

他的两次总统竞选失败,以及他两次坚称胜利被错误地夺走,为第三次并最终成功地竞选埋下了种子。2018年,利用墨西哥人民对政治体制的幻灭感--洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)自己的抱怨在很大程度上助长了这种幻灭感--他最终获胜。这一次,他甚至能够通过与卡尔德龙的妻子和他的反对党的新领导人里卡多·阿纳亚竞争,重新赢得2006年的选举。QYc世界播


In López Obrador’s case, refusing to concede didn’t doom his political career. Instead, his obstinacy helped him triumph. QYc世界播

在洛佩斯·奥布拉多(López Obrador)的案例中,拒绝承认并没有毁掉他的政治生涯。相反,他的固执帮助他取得了胜利。QYc世界播

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