国际货币基金组织预测,2020年世界经济深度衰退,增长率为-4.4%

2020-10-14 16:05

World Economy in Deep Recession in 2020, Growth to Be -4.4%, Predicts IMF 3kV世界播

国际货币基金组织预测,2020年世界经济深度衰退,增长率为-4.4%3kV世界播


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The IMF on Tuesday predicted a deep global recession this year and the world growth to be – 4.4 per cent, asserting that the global economic crisis is far from over mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund also said the swift recovery in China has surprised on the upside while the global economy's long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks. 3kV世界播

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二预测,今年全球将出现深度衰退,全球经济增长率将为-4.4%,并断言全球经济危机远未结束,主要原因是冠状病毒大流行的影响。国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其最新的“世界经济展望”(World Economic Outlook)报告中还表示,中国的快速复苏令人意外地出现了上行趋势,而全球经济长期回升至大流行前的水平仍容易遭遇挫折。3kV世界播


This crisis is however far from over. In our latest World Economic Outlook, we continue to project a deep recession in 2020. Global growth is projected to be -4.4 per cent, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points compared to our June update, Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of the IMF, said. This upgrade owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies. 3kV世界播

然而,这场危机远未结束。在我们最新的“世界经济展望”(World Economic Outlook)中,我们继续预测2020年将出现深度衰退。国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)表示:全球经济增长预计为-4.4%,与我们6月份的最新数据相比向上修正了0.8个百分点。这一上调归功于第二季度不那么可怕的结果,以及第三季度更强劲的复苏迹象,但部分被一些新兴和发展中经济体的评级下调所抵消。3kV世界播


According to the report, in 2021, growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 per cent, -0.2 percentage points below its June projection. Noting that the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread with over one million lives tragically lost so far, the Indian-American economist said living with the novel coronavirus has been a challenge like no other. 3kV世界播

根据这份报告,2021年,增长率预计将反弹至5.2%,比6月份的预测低0.2个百分点。这位印裔美国经济学家指出,新冠肺炎大流行仍在继续蔓延,迄今已有100多万人不幸丧生,他表示,与这种新颖的冠状病毒一起生活是一个前所未有的挑战。3kV世界播


However, she said the world is adapting as a result of eased lockdowns and the rapid deployment of policy support at an unprecedented scale by central banks and governments around the world. The global economy is coming back from the depths of its collapse in the first half of this year, she said. 3kV世界播

不过,她表示,全球正在适应,因为各国央行和政府放松了封锁,并以前所未有的规模迅速部署了政策支持。她表示,今年上半年,全球经济正从崩溃的深渊中复苏。3kV世界播


Employment has partially rebounded after having plummeted during the peak of the crisis. This crisis is however far from over. Employment remains well below pre-pandemic levels and the labour market has become more polarised with low-income workers, youth, and women being harder hit, she added. She further said the poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. 3kV世界播

就业在危机高峰期暴跌后已部分回升。然而,这场危机远未结束。她补充说,就业人数仍远低于大流行前的水平,劳动力市场已变得更加两极分化,低收入工人、青年和妇女受到的打击更大。她进一步表示,穷人正在变得更加贫穷,预计今年将有近9000万人陷入极端贫困。3kV世界播


The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain. It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible, Gopinath said. Gopinath said that except for China, where output is expected to exceed 2019 levels this year, output in both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies is projected to remain below 2019 levels even next year. 3kV世界播

走出这场灾难的过程很可能是漫长、不均衡和高度不确定的。戈皮纳特说,至关重要的是,财政和货币政策支持不要过早撤回,这是最好的。戈皮纳特表示,除了中国,预计今年的产出将超过2019年的水平,发达经济体以及新兴市场经济体和发展中经济体的产出预计即使在明年也将保持在2019年的水平以下。3kV世界播


Countries that rely more on contact intensive services and oil exporters face weaker recoveries compared to manufacturing-led economies. The divergence in income prospects between advanced economies and emerging and developing economies, excluding China, triggered by this pandemic is projected to worsen, she said. 3kV世界播

与制造业主导的经济体相比,更依赖接触密集型服务和石油出口国的国家面临较弱的复苏。她说,这场大流行引发的发达经济体与新兴和发展中经济体(不包括中国)之间的收入前景差异预计将恶化。3kV世界播

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