这一次安瓦尔是真的吗?:新洲日报专栏作家

2020-10-14 15:21

Is Anwar for real this time?: Sin Chew Daily columnist zat世界播

这一次安瓦尔是真的吗?:新洲日报专栏作家zat世界播


暂无zat世界播

Malaysia's king, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah (left), and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim inside the Royal Palace in Kuala Lumpur on Oct 13, 2020. zat世界播

2020年10月13日,马来西亚国王苏丹阿卜杜拉·苏丹·艾哈迈德·沙阿(左)和反对派领导人安瓦尔·易卜拉欣在吉隆坡皇宫内zat世界播


KUALA LUMPUR (SIN CHEW DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - I happened to meet Nurul Izzah Anwar (daughter of Malaysia's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim) the other day, and apparently the focus of our chat had to be her father's audience with the King on Tuesday (Oct 13). zat世界播

吉隆坡(Sin Chew Daily/亚洲新闻网)-前几天我碰巧遇到了Nurul Izzah Anwar(马来西亚反对派领导人安瓦尔·易卜拉欣(Anwar Ibrahim)的女儿),显然我们聊天的焦点肯定是她父亲周二(10月13日)与国王的会面。zat世界播


I cannot quote the conversation here, but I can sum up that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is not going to the Palace empty-handed this time, and he has indeed anticipated several possible consequences, although no conclusion can yet be drawn at this moment. zat世界播

我不能在这里引用谈话,但我可以总结一下,拿督·斯里·安瓦尔·易卜拉欣这次不会空手前往皇宫,他确实预料到了几种可能的后果,尽管目前还不能得出结论。zat世界播


Of course, many observers are of the opinion that Mr Anwar is playing the 'crying wolf' game again. zat世界播

当然,许多观察家认为安瓦尔先生又在玩“狼来了”的游戏。zat世界播


We can still remember very well September 16 in 2008, the day he had claimed there would be a change of government at the federal level. We all know this didn't happen. zat世界播

我们仍然清楚地记得2008年9月16日,也就是他声称要在联邦一级进行政府更迭的那一天。我们都知道这件事没有发生。zat世界播


Some have counted three wolf-crying instances and this is going to be his fourth attempt! zat世界播

有些人数了三次狼来了,这将是他的第四次尝试!zat世界播


Nonetheless, some others are of the view that the situation is quite different this time, and it could be real. zat世界播

尽管如此,也有一些人认为,这一次的情况很不一样,可能是真的。zat世界播


Their argument: the King is willing to grant him an audience. zat世界播

他们的论点是:国王愿意给他接见。zat世界播


Logically speaking, Mr Anwar should have some very solid evidence with him, such as a statutory declaration signed by the MPs, in order to convince His Majesty that he really has the numbers to form the new government. zat世界播

从逻辑上讲,安瓦尔先生应该有一些非常确凿的证据,例如议员们签署的一份法定声明,才能让陛下相信他真的有足够的人数组建新政府。zat世界播


Mr Anwar knows very well that if he doesn't have any solid evidence in hand, yet claims to have the numbers to seek the royal consent to form the government, the consequences could be grave, and could very much cost him his political career. zat世界播

安瓦尔很清楚,如果他手头没有任何确凿的证据,但声称拥有寻求王室同意组建政府的人数,后果可能会很严重,并可能极大地毁掉他的政治生涯。zat世界播


The mood has somewhat altered during the past several days. zat世界播

在过去的几天里,情绪有些变化。zat世界播


Three weeks ago, when Mr Anwar first announced that he would seek an audience with the King to form the new government, public response was more of scepticism. zat世界播

三周前,当安瓦尔第一次宣布他将寻求与国王会面以组建新政府时,公众的反应更多的是怀疑。zat世界播


But after he announced the date of the royal audience last week, many became half sceptical, and his political rivals who used to jeer at him became tensed up. zat世界播

但在他上周宣布王室听众的日期后,许多人变得半持怀疑态度,他过去嘲笑他的政治对手变得紧张起来。zat世界播


Umno leaders, in particular, have been trying to confirm Mr Anwar's claim, making guesses who in their midst could be possible defectors to Mr Anwar's camp. zat世界播

尤其是巫统领导人一直在试图证实安瓦尔的说法,猜测他们中间谁可能是安瓦尔阵营的叛逃者。zat世界播


This thing never before happened to a united and confident Umno of the past. The thing is: Umno is today divided with several warlords each reigning over his own faction. zat世界播

这件事以前从来没有发生在一个团结自信的巫统身上。事情是这样的:巫统今天分裂成几个军阀,每个军阀都统治着自己的派系。zat世界播


Cohesiveness is lacking, and this creates a rare opportunity for defection. zat世界播

缺乏凝聚力,这为叛逃创造了难得的机会。zat世界播


The relationship between Umno and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM) soured around the Sabah state elections. zat世界播

巫统和马来西亚人民党(PPBM)之间的关系在沙巴州选举前后恶化。zat世界播


Umno leaders and grassroots feel that they have been taken for a ride by PPBM. They say Umno lost some of the seats because of leg-pulling by PPBM. zat世界播

巫统领导人和草根们觉得他们上了PPBM的当。他们说巫统因为PPBM的拉腿而失去了一些席位。zat世界播


The appointment of Hajiji Noor as chief minister has further accentuated such frustration. zat世界播

任命哈吉吉·努尔(Hajiji Noor)为首席部长进一步加剧了这种挫折感。zat世界播


The overlapping of seats between Umno and PPBM is a course of concern for many in Umno that PPBM could take away more of their seats in future. After the Sabah elections, there have been calls for the party to break its ties with PPBM. zat世界播

巫统和PPBM之间的席位重叠是巫统许多人担心的一个过程,即PPBM未来可能会夺走他们更多的席位。沙巴州选举后,有人呼吁该党与PPBM断绝关系。zat世界播


Those with vested interests have even proposed to collaborate with Mr Anwar to take out Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin! zat世界播

既得利益者甚至提议与安瓦尔先生合作,干掉总理穆希丁·亚辛(Muhyiddin Yassin)!zat世界播


Like Mr Anwar, Umno also wants to take out Muhyiddin, but they differ in their ulterior motives. While Mr Anwar hopes the King will grant him the consent to form the new government, Umno wants a snap poll. zat世界播

和安瓦尔一样,巫统也想除掉穆希丁,但他们别有用心不同。虽然安瓦尔希望国王能同意他组建新政府,但巫统希望提前投票。zat世界播


Of course, luck may be on Mr Anwar's side this time. The coronavirus outbreak is now in the third wave as we see sharp rises in daily new infection numbers. zat世界播

当然,这一次运气可能会站在安瓦尔这边。随着我们看到每天新感染人数的急剧上升,冠状病毒暴发现已进入第三波。zat世界播


With the Sabah elections largely blamed for the latest spike, holding a snap election anytime soon is a no-no. zat世界播

由于沙巴州选举在很大程度上是最近的飙升的罪魁祸首,短期内举行提前选举是不可取的。zat世界播


Having GE15 now will send the Covid-19 situation out of hand and may trigger a powerful backlash among the people. Given such consideration, a snap poll is obviously not the most advisable option at this moment. zat世界播

现在有了GE15,新冠肺炎的情况就会一发不可收拾,可能会在民众中引发强烈反弹。基於这样的考虑,临时投票显然不是目前最可取的选择。zat世界播


Another option is to allow the leader with majority support in the Parliament to form the new government. zat世界播

另一种选择是允许在议会中获得多数支持的领导人组建新政府。zat世界播


Mr Anwar will get this opportunity if he really has the numbers, provided that he can prove the numbers, not just a razor-thin majority but convincing enough. zat世界播

如果安瓦尔先生真的掌握了数字,只要他能证明这些数字,不仅仅是微弱的多数,而且足够令人信服,他就会得到这个机会。zat世界播


MrMuhyiddin's weakness lies with the fact he only commands a very small majority in the Parliament. zat世界播

穆希丁的弱点在于他在议会中只占很小的多数席位。zat世界播


Mr Anwar may not get the mandate if he only has a tiny majority to start with. Even if he manages to put up his government, its fate will not be any better than Mr Muhyiddin's. zat世界播

如果安瓦尔一开始只获得微弱多数,他可能得不到授权。即使他设法建立起他的政府,它的命运也不会比穆希丁先生的好多少。zat世界播


The thing is, by any calculation it is hard to come up with a majority number that is solid enough. zat世界播

问题是,通过任何计算,都很难得出一个足够可靠的多数数字。zat世界播


The three parties of Pakatan Harapan only have a total of 91 seats and GPS Sarawak has repeatedly denied it will support Mr Anwar, while PAS (Parti Islam SeMalaysia) is firmly behind Mr Muhyiddin. zat世界播

Pakatan Harapan的三个政党总共只有91个席位,GPS沙捞越一再否认会支持安瓦尔,而PAS(Parti Islam SeMalaysia)则坚定地支持穆希丁。zat世界播


Meanwhile, former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's gang of six has drawn the line and Warisan will most likely go Mr Mahathir's way, as PPBM and allies naturally back their president Mr Muhyiddin. zat世界播

与此同时,前总理马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)的六人帮已经划定了界限,瓦里桑很可能会走马哈蒂尔的路,因为人民党和盟友自然会支持他们的总统穆希丁(Muhyiddin)。zat世界播


We are then left with only Umno. It is impossible for all Umno reps to turn to Mr Anwar, and those who have been named have rushed to deny allegiance, and have even lodged police reports. zat世界播

那么我们就只剩下巫统了。所有巫统代表都不可能求助于安瓦尔,那些被点名的人争先恐后地否认效忠,甚至提交了警方报告。zat世界播


It remains a myth how many people Mr Anwar actually has on his side. Perhaps Mr Anwar's plan is to change the position of GPS and Warisan to command a stable majority in the Parliament, once he is granted the consent to form the new government, and then motivate more Umno and PPBM, even PAS reps to join him to achieve what he claimed a strong and solid majority. zat世界播

安瓦尔先生到底有多少人站在他这一边仍然是个谜。也许安瓦尔的计划是改变GPS和Warisan的地位,一旦他获得组建新政府的同意,就能在议会获得稳定的多数席位,然后激励更多的巫统和PPBM,甚至PAS代表加入他的行列,实现他声称的强大而稳固的多数。zat世界播


And the threshold is right at the Palace. It doesn't matter whether it's going to be front door, back door, or side door. zat世界播

门槛就在皇宫。它是前门、后门还是侧门都无关紧要。zat世界播


The question now is: can he cross the threshold? Politics is the art of the impossible. There's no way for us to draw any conclusion now. zat世界播

现在的问题是:他能跨过门槛吗?政治是不可能的艺术。我们现在没有办法得出任何结论。zat世界播


The writer is a columnist with the paper. The paper is a member of The Straits Times media partner Asia News Network, an alliance of 24 news media titles. zat世界播

作者是该报的专栏作家。该报是海峡时报媒体合作伙伴亚洲新闻网(Strait Times Media Partner Asia News Network)的成员,亚洲新闻网是由24家新闻媒体组成的联盟。zat世界播

© 2016 世界播 www.shijiebobao.com 中国互联网举报中心 京ICP证140141号 鄂ICP备18018000号-1
违法和不良信息举报: